2020 Montenegrin parliamentary election
Parliamentary elections are due to be held in Montenegro on 30 August 2020.
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Background
Following the 2016 parliamentary elections, the entire opposition started a collective boycott of all parliamentary sittings. In January 2017, 39 of the 81 MPs were boycotting parliament, requesting early elections be held no later than 2018, when the next presidential elections were scheduled.[1][2]
In its June 2018 report, issued after the presidential election, the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, ODIHR, called for election reforms in Montenegro, and for more integrity, impartiality and professionalism in election administration.[3]
Protests against corruption in the DPS-led government started in February 2019 after the revelation of footage and documents that appeared to implicate top officials in obtaining funds for the ruling party. On 30 March, all 39 opposition MPs signed an "Agreement for the Future", proposed by the protest organizers, in which they promised to boycott the 2020 elections if they were deemed irregular. In May 2020 the protest organizers called for a boycott of the 30 August elections, along with some opposition parties, claiming that the elections would not be held under fair conditions.[4]
The EU-backed board for electoral system reform, which both the government and the opposition participated in, failed in December 2019, after the opposition left the board sessions in the protest at the government passing a controversial law on religion, accusing the ruling party of inciting ethnic hatred and unrest.[5] In late December 2019 another wave of protest started against the newly adopted law which de jure transfers the ownership of church buildings and estates from the Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro to the Montenegrin state.[6][7]
In its political rights and civil liberties worldwide report in May 2020, Freedom House marked Montenegro as a hybrid regime rather than a democracy because of declining standards in governance, justice, elections and media freedom. Freedom House stated that years of increasing state capture, abuse of power and strongman tactics employed by long-term Prime Minister and President Milo Đukanović had tipped country over the edge, and for the first time since 2003, Montenegro was no longer categorised as a democracy. The report emphasised the unequal electoral process, cases of political arrests, negative developments related to judicial independence, media freedoms, as well as a series of unresolved cases of corruption within the DPS-led government. Despite repeated demands from the opposition, NGO sector and the EU-backed institutions for the professionalization and neutralisation of institutions controlling the electoral process, they are still under the de facto control of the ruling DPS-led coalition.[8][9][10]
Electoral system
The 81 seats of the Parliament of Montenegro are elected in a single nationwide constituency using closed list proportional representation. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method with a 3% electoral threshold. However, minority groups that account for at least 15% of the population in a district are given an exemption that lowers the electoral threshold to 0.7%. A separate exemption is given to ethnic Croats whereby if no list representing the population passes the 0.7% threshold, the list with the most votes will win one seat if it receives more than 0.35% of the vote.[11]
Campaign
On 1 May 2019, the Socialist People's Party (SNP), United Montenegro (UCG), Workers' Party (RP) and Independent group in the parliament agreed to form a new catch-all political alliance under the name For the Benefit of All.[12][13] The alliance eventually dissoluted prior the election. In August 2020 all three parties decided to join a pre-election coalition with right-wing Democratic Front (DF) alliance, under the name For the Future of Montenegro,[14] as did some minor political parties, such as the True Montenegro (PCG), Democratic Party of Unity (DSJ), Democratic Serb Party (DSS) and Yugoslav Communist Party (JKP).[15]
On 11 July 2020 the Civic Movement URA decided to run independently, presenting its centre-left "In black and white" election platform, led by independent candidates, including well known journalist and activist Milka Tadić, some university professors, journalists, civic and NGO activists, with the party leader Dritan Abazović as a ballot carrier.[16] URA electoral list also contains one representative of the Bosniak minority interests SPP party, as well of some minor localist parties and initiatives.[17]
Democratic Montenegro, DEMOS, the New Left, PUPI and the NGO Policy Research Society, agreed to form a pre-election coalition under the name Peace is Our Nation, with Democratic Montenegro leader Aleksa Bečić as a ballot carrier.[18][19]
On 12 July 2020 the opposition Social Democratic Party of Montenegro (SDP) announced that it would run independently,[20] as did the Social Democrats of Montenegro (SD), junior party in the previous government coalition, few days earlier.[21]
On 28 July 2020 the Albanian List, an minority politics coalition was formed by New Democratic Force (Forca), the Albanian Alternative (AA), Albanian Coalition Perspective (AKP) and the Democratic League of Albanians (DSA),[22] Few weeks earlier, Democratic Union of Albanians (DUA) agreed to join the DP and DSCG's Albanian Coalition "Unanimously".[23]
Priror August 2020 the centre-right minority politics Bosniak Party (BS) announced that it would run independently, as did the centre-right Croatian Civic Initiative (HGI) and the newly-formed centrist Croatian Reform Party (HRS).[24]
On 1 August 2020 the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) decided to run independently, with Andrija Popović as Liberal Party (LP) representative on their electoral list, with incumbent PM Duško Marković as a ballot carrier.[25]
Electoral lists
| # | Electoral list name | Ballot carrier | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Social Democrats – Ivan Brajović - We decide, consistently | Ivan Brajović | |
| 2 | Bosniak Party – Correctly – Rafet Husović | Ervin Ibrahimović | M |
| 3 | HGI – With all heart for Montenegro! | Adrian Vuksanović | M |
| 4 | Social Democratic Party – Strong Montenegro! | Draginja Vuksanović | |
| 5 | Croatian Reform Party of Montenegro – HRS | Radovan Marić | M |
| 6 | Dr. Dritan Abazović – In black and white – Dr. Srđan Pavićević | Dritan Abazović | |
| 7 | Albanian Coalition – Unanimously – DP, DUA, DSCG | Fatmir Gjeka | M |
| 8 | Decisively for Montenegro! DPS – Milo Đukanović | Duško Marković | |
| 9 | For the Future of Montenegro – DF, SNP, Popular Movement | Zdravko Krivokapić | |
| 10 | Albanian List – Genci Nimanbegu, Nik Đeljošaj | Nik Gjeloshaj | M |
| 11 | Aleksa Bečić – Miodrag Lekić – Peace is Our Nation | Aleksa Bečić | |
| Source: Officially declared electoral lists, dik.co.me [Montenegrin National Electoral Commission, DIK] | |||
M — denotes the national minority electoral list
Opinion polls
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty. The threshold for a party to elect members is 3%.
[a] – denotes the poll was commissioned by a political party/coalition.
| Date | Polling Firm/Source | DPS | DF | PCG | SNP | UCG | URA | Demos | DCG | SDP | SD | BS | Forca | AA | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2020 | ICA | 35.1 | 25.9 | 7.5 | 15.5 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 9.2 | |||||
| Aug 2020 | CeDem | 35.3 | 24.7 | 6.6 | 16.5 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 10.6 | |||||
| July 2020 | NSPM | 35.9 | 17.2 | 3.8 | 4.5 | >1 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 17.5 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 18.4 | |
| July 2020 | HoW[a] | 41.2 | 15.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 16.4 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 24.8 | ||||
| June 2020 | HoW[a] | 39.8 | 13.8 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 13.2 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 26.0 | |
| May 2020 | HoW[a] | 41.2 | 12.9 | 1.4 | 5.5 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 12.1 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 28.3 | |
| Apr 2020 | HoW[a] | 40.5 | 12.5 | 1.8 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 13.5 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 26 | |
| Feb 2020 | ICA | 32.8 | 23.1 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 11.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 9.7 | |
| Dec 2019 | CeDem | 37 | 13.2 | 2.2 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 15 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 1 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 22 |
| Oct 2019 | NSPM[a] | 35.5 | 20.8 | 1.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 15.1 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 14.7 | ||
| Sep 2019 | Standard[a] | 38 | 15.3 | 4.3 | 4 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 14.8 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 4 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 22.7 | |
| Aug 2019 | Ipsos | 41 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 2.5 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 2 | >1 | 2 | 3.5 | 24 | |
| July 2019 | CeDem | 34 | 15.6 | 2.3 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 14.6 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.3 | >1 | 2.6 | 3 | 18.4 | |
| Dec 2018 | CeDem | 41.5 | 10.1 | 1.1 | 6.8 | >1 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 20.7 | 3.5 | 4 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 20.8 |
| Dec 2018 | NSPM[a] | 42.7 | 18.4 | 1.3 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 14.1 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.1 | >1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 24.3 |
| Mar 2018 | CeDem | 43 | 12.6 | 1.1 | 5.1 | >1 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 21.2 | 4 | 1.2 | 2 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 21.8 |
| Dec 2017 | CeDem | 39.9 | 13 | — | 4.5 | 0.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 21.3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1 | 3.2 | 18.6 |
| Oct 2017 | Ipsos | 40 | 15 | — | 5 | — | 3 | 3 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 3 | >1 | 1 | 2 | 17 |
| Oct 2017 | DeFacto | 38 | 12.2 | — | 4.1 | — | 1.5 | 4.3 | 26.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2 | >1 | 6.6 | 11.9 |
| July 2017 | CeDem | 39 | 11.6 | — | 4.9 | — | 4 | 5.9 | 19.9 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 19.1 |
| Dec 2016 | CeDem | 36.8 | 21 | — | 7.8 | — | 1.6 | 6.3 | 12.2 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 15.8 |
| Oct 2016 | Election results | 41.4 | 20.3 | 11.1 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 4.2 | 21.1 | |||||
Results
| Party | Votes | % | +/– | Seats | +/– | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party of Socialists | ||||||
| For the Future of Montenegro | ||||||
| Peace is Our Nation | ||||||
| Social Democratic Party | ||||||
| United Reform Action | ||||||
| Bosniak PartyM | ||||||
| Social Democrats | ||||||
| Albanian ListM | ||||||
| Croatian Civic InitiativeM | ||||||
| UnanimouslyM | ||||||
| Croatian Reform PartyM | ||||||
| Invalid/blank votes | – | – | – | – | ||
| Total | 100 | – | 81 | 0 | ||
| Registered voters/turnout | 541,232 | – | – | – | ||
| M — denotes the national minority lists, for which the 3% threshold does not apply. | ||||||
References
- Novi izbori kao uslov opozicije za povratak u Parlament, Radio Slobodna Evropa, 30 November 2016
- Ponoviti izbore najkasnije do 2018., Mondo.me, 7 February 2017
- Balkan Insight (6 August 2020). "Opposition Faces Uphill Battle in Looming Montenegro Election".
- Perović: Ne izlazite na izbore, najavite opšti bojkot, Dan online, 20 May 2020
- DEMOKRATE NAPUSTILE ODBOR: Povući iz procedure zakon koji izaziva međunacionalnu mržnju, volimpodgoricu.me/Vijesti, 19 December 2020
- Reuters (26 December 2019). "Serbs Protest in Montenegro Ahead of Vote on Religious Law". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 5 January 2020.
- "Montenegro's Attack on Church Property Will Create Lawless Society". Balkan Insight. 14 June 2019.
- Kako se Crna Gora našla u "hibridnim režimima", Vijesti/Radio Free Europe
- Crna Gora država pokradenih izbora, Dan Online
- Freedom in the World — Montenegro Country Report, Freedom House (2020)
- Electoral system, Inter-parliamentary Union
- Potpisan sporazum "Da svako ima", Vijesti, 1 May 2019
- New political alliance to be set up soon Cafe del Montenegro, 30 April 2019
- DF, SNP, Narodni pokret i Prava zajedno na izborima, Vijesti, 31 July 2020
- SNP u Narodnom pokretu, Milačić na listi DF-a, CDM, 24 July 2020
- Šta piše i ko je potpisao platformu "Crno na bijelo": Smjena vlasti će izroditi drugačiju Crnu Goru, Vijesti
- SPP Hazbije Kalača podžala Platformu Crno na bijelo, Vijesti, 2 August 2020
- Nova ponuda: Lekić, Rudović, Pavićević i Mijović na izbornoj listi Demokrata, Dnevne novine, 12 July 2020
- U Crnoj Gori formiran "Građanski blok", RTS, 12 July 2020
- "SDP neće u neprincipijelne koalicije", RTCG, 12 July 2020
- ODLUKA PREDSJEDNIŠTVA: SD samostalno na parlamentarne izbore, RTCG, 7 July 2020
- Forca, AA i DSA zajedno na izborima, Dan, 28 July 2020
- Albanci u dvije kolone, Dan Online, 27 July 2020
- Bošnjačka stranka predala listu za predstojeće izbore, Analitika, 3 August 2020
- Marković nosilac izborne liste DPS, Vijesti, 1 August 2020