Opinion polling for the 2002 New Zealand general election
Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 46th New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 2002 election by various organisations.
Party vote
Polls are listed in the table below in chronological order. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.
Graphical summary
Individual polls
| Poll | Date[nb 1] | Labour | National | Alliance | ACT | Green | NZ First | United Future |
Prog |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 election result[1] | 27 Nov 1999 | 38.74 | 30.50 | 7.74 | 7.04 | 5.16 | 4.26 | N/A[nb 2] | |
| TV3/CM Research poll[2] | 28 Feb 2000 | 51 | 30 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | – | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | 28 Feb 2000 | 50 | 31 | 4.3 | 5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | – | – |
| TV3/CM Research poll[3] | 18 Apr 2000 | 53 | 28 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | – | – |
| TV3/CM Research poll[4] | 26 Jun 2000 | 46 | 34 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | – | – |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 30 Jun 2000 | 43 | 32 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 6 | – | – |
| June 2000 – Dover Samuels resigns from Cabinet pending an investigation into alleged sex crimes committed before he entered politics. | |||||||||
| TV3/CM Research poll[5] | 22 Aug 2000 | 47 | 36 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | – | – |
| NBR-Compaq | 7–10 Sep 2000 | 36 | 41 | 6 | 4 | 7 | – | – | – |
| TV3/CM Research poll[6] | 31 Oct 2000 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | – | – |
| TV3/CM Research poll[7] | 20 Feb 2001 | 49 | 34 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | – | – |
| TV3-NFO | 9 Apr 2001 | 50 | 32 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | – |
| NBR-Compaq | 5 May 2001 | 43 | 32 | 5 | 6 | 6.5 | – | – | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 14 May 2001 | 44 | 41 | 2 | – | 6 | – | – | – |
| TV3-NFO | 11 Jun 2001 | 49 | 31 | 3.5 | 2 | 7 | 3.3 | – | – |
| 8 October 2001 – Bill English is elected leader of the National Party. | |||||||||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 9–12 Oct 2001 | 46 | 39 | 2 | 3.1 | 5 | 3.5 | – | – |
| NBR-Compaq | 19 Oct 2001 | 43 | 33 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 8 | 3.6 | – | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 12 Nov 2001 | 44 | 40 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | – | – |
| TV3/CM Research poll[8] | 17 Dec 2001 | 45 | 35 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | – | – |
| TV3/CM Research poll[9] | 27 Feb 2002 | 54 | 30 | 2.2 | 3 | 6 | 2.2 | – | – |
| April 2002 – Jim Anderton leaves the Alliance and Laila Harré replaces him as leader. | |||||||||
| NBR HP-Invent | 7 Jun 2002 | 53 | 29 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 3.3 | – | 1.3 |
| TV3-NFO | 10 Jun 2002 | 56 | 24 | 1.2 | 3.9 | 9 | 3.1 | <0.5 | <0.5 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 10 Jun 2002 | 49.9 | 31.2 | 0.1 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 17 Jun 2002 | 53 | 27 | 0.5 | 4 | 9 | 3 | – | 2 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 26 Jun 2002 | 52.1 | 25.7 | 0.5 | 4.4 | 8.3 | 3.8 | – | 2 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 3 Jul 2002 | 51.2 | 24.6 | 0.4 | 5.7 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
| TV3-NFO | 5 Jul 2002 | 51 | 24 | 1.1 | 5 | 10.8 | 5.7 | – | 1.1 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 11 Jul 2002 | 48 | 24.5 | 0.4 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| TV3-NFO | 11 Jul 2002 | 48 | 24 | 1.2 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 15 Jul 2002 | 46 | 27 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 6 | – | 1 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 17 Jul 2002 | 46.7 | 23.1 | 0.4 | 5.5 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| TV3-NFO | 18 Jul 2002 | 46 | 25 | 1.4 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 22 Jul 2002 | 40.8 | 23.6 | 0.4 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 1.3 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 25 Jul 2002 | 44 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 0.5 |
| TV3-NFO | 25 Jul 2002 | 43 | 21 | 1.4 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 3.9 | 1.2 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 26 Jul 2002 | 38.8 | 23.2 | 1.3 | 8.9 | 9 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 1.4 |
| 2002 election result[10] | 27 Jul 2002 | 41.26 | 20.93 | 1.27 | 7.14 | 7.00 | 10.38 | 6.69 | 1.70 |
Preferred Prime Minister
Individual polls
| Poll | Date[nb 1] | Helen Clark | Jenny Shipley | Winston Peters | Jim Anderton |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TV3/CM Research poll[2] | 28 Feb 2000 | 36 | 13 | - | - |
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | 28 Feb 2000 | 43 | 16 | - | - |
| TV3/CM Research poll[3] | 18 Apr 2000 | 42 | 13 | - | - |
| TV3/CM Research poll[5] | 22 Aug 2000 | 31 | 16 | - | - |
| TV3/CM Research poll[6] | 18 Apr 2000 | 28 | 14 | - | - |
| TV3/CM Research poll[4] | 20 Feb 2001 | 35 | 16 | - | - |
| TV3/CM Research poll[7] | 20 Feb 2001 | 30 | 13 | - | - |
| TV3-NFO | 9 Apr 2001 | 36 | 11 | – | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 14 May 2001 | 37 | 17 | – | 3 |
| Poll | Date[nb 1] | Helen Clark | Bill English | Winston Peters | Jim Anderton |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 9–12 Oct 2001 | 41 | 21 | – | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 12 Nov 2001 | 40 | 19 | – | – |
| TV3/CM Research poll[8] | 17 Dec 2001 | 41 | 17 | - | - |
| TV3/CM Research poll[9] | 27 Feb 2002 | 41 | 10 | 5 | 3 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 17 Jun 2002 | 52 | 17 | 4 | 2 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 15 Jul 2002 | 48 | 19 | 7 | 2 |
Electorate polling
Candidate vote
| Poll | Date[nb 1] | Marian Hobbs | Hekia Parata | Robert Reid |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominion Post BRC | 2-4 Jul 2002 | 32 | 15 | 1 |
Candidate vote
| Poll | Date[nb 1] | Jim Anderton | Mike Mora | Alex Neil | Sean Gourley |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMR Research | 22 Jul 2002 | 40.6 | 26.4 | 19 | 2 |
Candidate vote
| Poll | Date[nb 1] | Lynne Pillay | Laila Harré | Marie Hasler |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Link | 24 Jul 2002 | 33 | 25 | 24 |
Candidate vote
| Poll | Date[nb 1] | Sandra Goudie | Max Purnell | Jeanette Fitzsimons |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Link | 24 Jul 2002 | 33 | 27 | 24 |
Candidate vote
| Poll | Date[nb 1] | Dover Samuels | Mere Mangu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marae DigiPoll | 6–17 Jul 2002 | 44 | 9 |
gollark: We should all switch to the amazingly powerful Intel HD (yes, *HD*) Graphics 4600.
gollark: Indeed.
gollark: The Intel ones are great and the AMD open source ones are apparently also pretty good. The Nvidia FOSS ones are awful though.
gollark: Even the Nvidia drivers work for me apart from screen tearing.
gollark: Nope. Also use Linux.
Notes
- These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
- United Future was founded in 2000 and Jim Anderton's Progressive Party was founded in 2002, thus neither party contested the 1999 general election.
References
- "1999 GENERAL ELECTION - Summary of Overall Results". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 27 November 1999. Retrieved 15 December 2017.
- "Labour rockets up the polls with Clark top choice". Waikato Times. 29 February 2000. p. 2.
- "PM, Labour honeymoon continues". The Press. 18 April 2000. p. 7.
- "Labour support falls - poll". The Evening Post. 27 June 2000. p. 2.
- "Labour retains lead". The Press. 22 August 2000. p. 2.
- "Labour dips but still ahead - poll". The Evening Post. 31 October 2000. p. 2.
- "Labour further ahead despite controversy". Waikato Times. 20 February 2001. p. 11.
- "Latest poll sees Labour maintain lead". Waikato Times. 17 December 2001. p. 2.
- "Poll news birthday lift for PM". The Press. 27 February 2002. p. 6.
- "Official Count Results -- Overall Status". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 10 August 2002. Retrieved 15 December 2017.
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