Next Berlin state election

The Next Berlin state election will be held no later than September 2021 to elect the 19th Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.[1] The current government is coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), The Left, and The Greens led by Governing Mayor Michael Müller.

Next Berlin state election
No later than September 2021
All 130 seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (plus overhang and leveling seats)
66+ seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Michael Müller Kai Wegner Katina Schubert
Party SPD CDU Left
Leader's seat Tempelhof-Schöneberg 4 – List
Last election 38 seats, 21.6% 31 seats, 17.6% 27 seats, 15.6%
 
Leader Nina Stahr &
Werner Graf		 Nicolaus Fest (acting) Christoph Meyer
Party Green AfD FDP
Leader's seat –
–		 – –
Last election 27 seats, 15.2% 25 seats, 14.2% 12 seats, 6.7%
Incumbent Mayor

Michael Müller
SPD

Election date

The last election took place on 18 September 2016. The Abgeordnetenhaus has a term of five years, so the next regular elections must take place before September 2021.[1]

Electoral system

The Abgeordnetenhaus is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 78 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 52 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation, distributed in each of Berlin's twelve boroughs. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Abgeordnetenhaus is 130 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Abgeordnetenhaus; parties that fall below this threshold are excluded from the Abgeordnetenhaus. However, parties which win at least one single-member constituency are exempt from the threshold and will be allocated seats proportionally, even if they fall below 5%.[1]

Background
Main article: 2016 Berlin state election

In the previous election held on 13 March 2016, the SPD remained the largest party with 21.6% of the vote, a loss of 5.7 percentage points. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) was the second largest party with 17.6%, a loss of 5.7 points. The Left overtook The Greens to become the third largest party on 15.6%, while The Greens won 15.2%. Alternative for Germany (AfD) contested their first election in Berlin, winning 14.2%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) re-entered the Abgeordnetenhaus with 6.7%.

The SPD had led a coalition with the CDU since 2011, but this government lost its majority in the election. The SPD subsequently formed a coalition with The Left and The Greens.

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the 18th Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2016 result
Votes (%) Seats
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands		 Social democracy Michael Müller 21.6%
38 / 160
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands		 Christian democracy Kai Wegner 17.6%
31 / 160
Linke The Left
Die Linke		 Democratic socialism Katina Schubert 15.6%
27 / 160
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen		 Green politics Nina Stahr
Werner Graf		 15.2%
27 / 160
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland		 National conservatism Nicolaus Fest (acting) 14.2%
25 / 160
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei		 Classical liberalism Christoph Meyer 6.7%
12 / 160

Opinion polling
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 SPD CDU Linke Grüne AfD FDP Others Lead
INSA 7–13 Jul 2020 1,012 16 21 18 19 12 5 9 2
Infratest dimap 22–25 Apr 2020 1,002 20 23 14 21 10 5 7 2
Forsa 29 Jan–6 Feb 2020 1,011 15 16 17 25 11 6 10 8
INSA 10–18 Dec 2019 1,006 15 18 19 23 13 7 5 4
Forsa 12–19 Dec 2019 1,005 15 17 19 22 11 6 10 3
Forsa 21–28 Nov 2019 1,006 16 17 17 25 11 5 10 8
Infratest dimap 11–16 Nov 2019 1,003 16 18 17 23 14 5 7 5
Forsa 22–31 Oct 2019 1,002 15 18 16 25 11 5 10 7
Forsa 17–26 Sep 2019 1,002 16 17 16 24 11 6 10 7
INSA 10–16 Sep 2019 1,018 15 17 18 24 14 6 6 6
Forsa 20–29 Aug 2019 1,003 16 16 17 24 11 6 10 7
Forsa 17–25 Jul 2019 1,001 16 17 18 25 10 5 9 7
Forsa 17–27 Jun 2019 1,004 15 17 17 25 10 7 9 8
Forsa 20–27 May 2019 1,006 16 15 17 26 11 7 8 9
Infratest dimap 30 Apr–3 May 2019 1,000 15 17 19 23 10 6 10 4
Forsa 16–25 Apr 2019 1,005 16 17 18 25 11 7 6 7
INSA 5–8 Apr 2019 1,030 16 19 19 19 12 9 6 Tie
INSA 19–28 Mar 2019 1,003 15 18 18 25 10 8 6 7
Forsa 20–28 Feb 2019 1,001 17 20 18 22 11 7 5 2
Forsa 22–31 Jan 2019 1,002 16 19 20 21 11 8 5 1
Forsa 11–19 Dec 2018 1,009 15 17 18 23 13 7 7 5
INSA 10–17 Dec 2018 1,007 16 18 16 21 14 8 7 3
Forsa 19–29 Nov 2018 1,003 15 18 18 23 13 7 6 5
Infratest dimap 14–17 Nov 2018 1,002 15 18 18 24 13 6 6 6
INSA 23 Oct–2 Nov 2018 1,019 16 16 17 22 15 7 7 5
Forsa October 2018 1,005 15 16 19 22 13 8 7 3
Forsa 19–27 Sep 2018 1,005 16 17 22 18 13 7 7 4
Forsa 21–30 Aug 2018 1,004 17 19 21 18 12 6 7 2
Forsa 16–26 Jul 2018 1,009 17 19 21 17 13 7 6 2
INSA 9–16 Jul 2018 1,012 17 18 17 18 14 7 9 Tie
Forsa 20–28 Jun 2018 1,009 19 18 21 16 11 8 7 2
Forsa 22–31 May 2018 1,004 18 19 20 18 11 7 7 1
Infratest dimap 9–12 May 2018 1,000 18 21 22 15 11 6 7 1
Forsa 17–26 Apr 2018 1,001 19 19 19 18 11 7 7 Tie
INSA 3–9 Apr 2018 1,039 19 19 19 17 13 8 5 Tie
Forsa 19–28 Mar 2018 1,003 20 20 18 17 12 7 6 Tie
Forsa 12–22 Feb 2018 1,006 19 19 20 18 12 6 6 1
Forsa 15–25 Jan 2018 1,008 20 19 18 17 11 7 8 1
Forsa 12–21 Dec 2017 1,002 20 20 18 17 11 6 8 Tie
Forsa 13–23 Nov 2017 1,002 18 21 18 16 11 8 8 3
Forsa 17–26 Oct 2017 1,011 19 20 18 14 11 9 9 1
Forsa 26 Sep–5 Oct 2017 1,002 18 19 19 15 11 9 9 Tie
Infratest dimap 6–9 Sep 2017 1,000 21 23 19 14 10 7 6 2
Forsa 22–30 Aug 2017 1,005 19 21 17 14 9 11 9 2
Forsa 18–27 Jul 2017 1,007 20 22 18 14 8 9 9 2
Forsa 22–29 Jun 2017 1,003 21 22 17 14 8 9 9 1
Forsa 16–24 May 2017 1,001 22 23 16 13 8 8 10 1
Infratest dimap 17–20 May 2017 1,000 22 24 17 13 10 8 6 2
Forsa 19–27 Apr 2017 1,002 24 20 16 12 9 8 11 4
Forsa 20–30 Mar 2017 1,005 25 20 16 13 8 7 11 5
Forsa 13–23 Mar 2017 1,004 25 17 16 13 10 8 11 8
Forsa 16–26 Jan 2017 1,008 20 20 16 15 12 8 9 Tie
Forsa 12–23 Dec 2016 1,003 20 20 17 16 12 7 8 Tie
Forsa 14–24 Nov 2017 1,001 19 20 16 17 13 7 8 1
Infratest dimap 21–23 Nov 2016 1,003 21 19 17 15 13 7 8 2
Forsa 19–27 Oct 2016 1,002 20 18 16 16 13 7 10 2
2016 state election 18 Sep 2016 – 21.6 17.6 15.6 15.2 14.2 6.7 7.4 4.0
gollark: i.e. you can get some twice or more.
gollark: There are n roots but not always n distinct ones.
gollark: AKA "solutions", ish.
gollark: Neither, sorry. Values which make it equal to zero.
gollark: Yes. And not just x^n but x^n + 3x^(n-1) + 6 and such.

References
  1. "Wahlen". Berlin Ministry for the Interior and Sport.
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.