2021 Rhineland-Palatinate state election

The 2021 Rhineland-Palatinate state election will be held on 14 March 2021 to elect the members of the 18th Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate. [1] The incumbent government of a coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Free Democratic Party (FDP), and The Greens led by Minister-President Malu Dreyer.

2021 Rhineland-Palatinate state election
14 March 2021
All 101 seats in the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate (plus overhang and leveling seats)
51+ seats needed for a majority
 
Candidate Malu Dreyer Christian Baldauf Michael Frisch[lower-alpha 1]
Party SPD CDU AfD
Leader's seat Trier Frankenthal List
Last election 39 seats, 36.2% 35 seats, 31.8% 14 seats, 12.6%
 
Candidate Volker Wissing[lower-alpha 2] Anne Spiegel
Party FDP Green
Leader's seat List List
Last election 7 seats, 6.2% 6 seats, 5.3%
Incumbent Minister-President

Malu Dreyer
SPD

Election date

The period of the 17th Landtag began on 18 April 2016. Landtag elections may take place between 57 and 60 months after the commencement of the term of the previous Landtag; thus, the election may take place between February and May 2021.[2] On 11 February 2020, the state government announced the date of the election as 14 March 2021.[1]

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 52 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 51 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Landtag is 101 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are excluded.[3]

Background
Main article: 2016 Rhineland-Palatinate state election

In the previous election held on 13 March 2016, the SPD retained its position as the largest party ahead of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Alternative for Germany (AfD) contested its first election in Rhineland-Palatinate, placing third with 12.6%. The FDP returned to the Landtag after falling out in 2011, winning 6.2% and 7 seats. The Greens narrowly retained their representation with 5.3%, a loss of 10.1 percentage points.

The SPD had led a coalition with the Greens since 2011, but this government lost its majority in the election. The Greens subsequently formed a coalition with the FDP and Greens.

Campaign

Lead candidates

On 18 October 2019, the state executive of The Greens nominated Anne Spiegel, Minister for Family, Women, Youth, Integration and Consumer Protection, as the party's lead candidate for the election.[4]

On 16 November 2019, leader of the CDU parliamentary group Christian Baldauf was selected as his party's lead candidate for the election.[5] He won 80.25% of votes against challenger Marlon Bröhr, administrator of the Rhein-Hunsrück district.[6]

On 2 December 2019, Minister-President Malu Dreyer announced her withdrawal from the federal executive of the SPD in order to focus on state politics and the upcoming state election. She had served as co-deputy leader of the federal party since 2017, and was joint acting leader from June to December 2019 after the resignation of leader Andrea Nahles. The announcement came after the 2019 leadership election which saw Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans chosen as Nahles' successors. Rhineland-Palatinate state party leader Roger Lewentz stated: "[Dreyer] is the best Minister-President for Rhineland-Palatinate. In the coming year we will do everything we can to ensure that she can continue to hold her post even after the state election in 2021."[7]

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the 17th Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate.

Name Ideology Lead
candidate		 Leader(s) 2016 result
Votes (%) Seats
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands		 Social democracy Malu Dreyer Roger Lewentz 36.2%
39 / 101
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands		 Christian democracy Christian Baldauf Julia Klöckner 31.8%
35 / 101
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland		 National conservatism Michael Frisch 12.6%
14 / 101
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei		 Classical liberalism Volker Wissing 6.2%
7 / 101
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen		 Green politics Anne Spiegel Misbah Khan
Josef Winkler		 5.3%
6 / 101

Volt Europa is planning to run in the election as well but needs to collect a sufficient amount of signatures to do so.[8]

Opinion polling

Party polling
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 SPD CDU AfD FDP Grüne Linke Others Lead
Infratest dimap 20–21 Apr 2020 1,003 27 38 8 6 13 4 4 11
INSA 16–30 Mar 2020 1,045 24 30 12 5 19 5 5 6
Infratest dimap 27 Feb–3 Mar 2020 1,001 26 27 11 7 18 6 5 1
Infratest dimap 5–10 Dec 2019 1,002 26 30 13 7 16 4 4 4
INSA 9–16 Sep 2019 1,012 22 28 12 8 20 4 6 6
Infratest dimap 5–9 Sep 2019 1,001 23 28 11 8 21 4 5 5
Infratest dimap 14–18 Mar 2019 1,000 24 31 11 10 14 6 4 7
Forsa 1–8 Feb 2019 1,005 26 31 10 8 14 5 6 5
Infratest dimap 10–11 Dec 2018 1,001 24 31 13 7 16 4 5 7
Infratest dimap 11–15 Oct 2018 1,003 24 28 13 8 18 5 4 4
Infratest dimap 14–18 Jun 2018 1,004 29 31 13 7 11 5 4 2
Infratest dimap 5–7 Mar 2018 1,001 37 33 8 7 8 3 4 4
INSA 2–8 Jan 2018 1,517 33 34 10 7 7 5 4 1
Infratest dimap 8–12 Dec 2017 1,003 38 37 6 7 6 3 3 1
Infratest dimap 7–11 Sep 2017 1,001 36 36 8 6 6 4 4 Tie
GESS Phone & Field 6–17 Jul 2017 1,002 33 37 8 7 6 3 6 4
Infratest dimap 14–19 Jun 2017 1,000 32 37 8 7 7 5 4 5
Infratest dimap 2–6 Mar 2017 1,001 40 35 7 6 6 3 3 5
GESS Phone & Field 9–19 Dec 2016 1,002 34 36 11 5 5 3 6 2
Infratest dimap 8–12 Dec 2016 1,000 32 36 10 9 5 4 4 4
Infratest dimap 8–12 Jul 2016 1,004 33 33 10 7 8 4 5 Tie
GESS Phone & Field 13–20 Jun 2016 1,004 36 31 12 6 6 3 6 5
2016 state election 13 Mar 2016 – 36.2 31.8 12.6 6.2 5.3 2.8 5.0 4.4

Minister-President polling
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 None/Unsure Lead
Malu Dreyer
SPD		 Julia Klöckner
CDU		 Christian Baldauf
CDU		 Anne Spiegel
Grüne
Infratest dimap 27 Feb–3 Mar 2020 1,001 57 – 17 4 11 40
Infratest dimap 5–7 Mar 2018 1,001 56 31 – – 5 25
Infratest dimap 8–12 Dec 2017 1,003 56 30 – – 6 26
Infratest dimap 14–19 Jun 2017 1,000 50 31 – – 9 19
Infratest dimap 2–6 Mar 2017 1,001 52 34 – – 6 18

Notes
  1. Party leader, not lead candidate.
  2. Party leader, not lead candidate.
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References
  1. "Mainz Termin für Landtagswahl festgelegt". Südwestrundfunk. 11 February 2020.
  2. "Wahltermin/Terminkalender". Rheinland-Pfalz Landeswahlleiter.
  3. "Das Wahlsystem" (PDF). Rheinland-Pfalz Landeswahlleiter. 20 April 2020.
  4. "Landtagswahl 2021 Grüne nominieren Anne Spiegel als Spitzenkandidatin". Südwestrundfunk. 18 October 2019.
  5. "Liveticker: Wer wird CDU-Spitzenkandidat 2021 in Rheinland-Pfalz?". Volksfreund.de. 16 November 2019.
  6. "Landtagswahlen in Rheinland-Pfalz im Jahr 2021 Will Hunsrück-Landrat Bröhr CDU-Spitzenkandidat werden?". Südwestrundfunk. 29 October 2019.
  7. "Malu Dreyer (SPD) konzentriert sich auf Rheinland-Pfalz und Wahl 2021". Volksfreund.de. 2 December 2019.
  8. https://twitter.com/TobiasSchminke/status/1275896319643734027
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