2020 Montenegrin parliamentary election

Parliamentary elections are due to be held in Montenegro on 30 August 2020.

2020 Montenegrin parliamentary election
30 August 2020
Party Leader Current seats
DPS Milo Đukanović 36
ZBCG Zdravko Krivokapić 24
MNN Aleksa Bečić 10
SDP Draginja Vuksanović 4
URA Dritan Abazović 2
BS Rafet Husović 2
SD Ivan Brajović 2
AL Nik Gjeloshaj 1
HGI Adrian Vuksanović 1
Incumbent PM
Duško Marković
DPS

Background

Following the 2016 parliamentary elections, the entire opposition started a collective boycott of all parliamentary sittings. In January 2017, 39 of the 81 MPs were boycotting parliament, requesting early elections be held no later than 2018, when the next presidential elections were scheduled.[1][2]

In its June 2018 report, issued after the presidential election, the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, ODIHR, called for election reforms in Montenegro, and for more integrity, impartiality and professionalism in election administration.[3]

Protests against corruption in the DPS-led government started in February 2019 after the revelation of footage and documents that appeared to implicate top officials in obtaining funds for the ruling party. On 30 March, all 39 opposition MPs signed an "Agreement for the Future", proposed by the protest organizers, in which they promised to boycott the 2020 elections if they were deemed irregular. In May 2020 the protest organizers called for a boycott of the 30 August elections, along with some opposition parties, claiming that the elections would not be held under fair conditions.[4]

The EU-backed board for electoral system reform, which both the government and the opposition participated in, failed in December 2019, after the opposition left the board sessions in the protest at the government passing a controversial law on religion, accusing the ruling party of inciting ethnic hatred and unrest.[5] In late December 2019 another wave of protest started against the newly adopted law which de jure transfers the ownership of church buildings and estates from the Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro to the Montenegrin state.[6][7]

In its political rights and civil liberties worldwide report in May 2020, Freedom House marked Montenegro as a hybrid regime rather than a democracy because of declining standards in governance, justice, elections and media freedom. Freedom House stated that years of increasing state capture, abuse of power and strongman tactics employed by long-term Prime Minister and President Milo Đukanović had tipped country over the edge, and for the first time since 2003, Montenegro was no longer categorised as a democracy. The report emphasised the unequal electoral process, cases of political arrests, negative developments related to judicial independence, media freedoms, as well as a series of unresolved cases of corruption within the DPS-led government. Despite repeated demands from the opposition, NGO sector and the EU-backed institutions for the professionalization and neutralisation of institutions controlling the electoral process, they are still under the de facto control of the ruling DPS-led coalition.[8][9][10]

Electoral system

The 81 seats of the Parliament of Montenegro are elected in a single nationwide constituency using closed list proportional representation. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method with a 3% electoral threshold. However, minority groups that account for at least 15% of the population in a district are given an exemption that lowers the electoral threshold to 0.7%. A separate exemption is given to ethnic Croats whereby if no list representing the population passes the 0.7% threshold, the list with the most votes will win one seat if it receives more than 0.35% of the vote.[11]

Campaign

On 1 May 2019, the Socialist People's Party (SNP), United Montenegro (UCG), Workers' Party (RP) and Independent group in the parliament agreed to form a new catch-all political alliance under the name For the Benefit of All.[12][13] The alliance eventually dissoluted prior the election. In August 2020 all three parties decided to join a pre-election coalition with right-wing Democratic Front (DF) alliance, under the name For the Future of Montenegro,[14] as did some minor political parties, such as the True Montenegro (PCG), Democratic Party of Unity (DSJ), Democratic Serb Party (DSS) and Yugoslav Communist Party (JKP).[15]

On 11 July 2020 the Civic Movement URA decided to run independently, presenting its centre-left "In black and white" election platform, led by independent candidates, including well known journalist and activist Milka Tadić, some university professors, journalists, civic and NGO activists, with the party leader Dritan Abazović as a ballot carrier.[16] URA electoral list also contains one representative of the Bosniak minority interests SPP party, as well of some minor localist parties and initiatives.[17]

Democratic Montenegro, DEMOS, the New Left, PUPI and the NGO Policy Research Society, agreed to form a pre-election coalition under the name Peace is Our Nation, with Democratic Montenegro leader Aleksa Bečić as a ballot carrier.[18][19]

On 12 July 2020 the opposition Social Democratic Party of Montenegro (SDP) announced that it would run independently,[20] as did the Social Democrats of Montenegro (SD), junior party in the previous government coalition, few days earlier.[21]

On 28 July 2020 the Albanian List, an minority politics coalition was formed by New Democratic Force (Forca), the Albanian Alternative (AA), Albanian Coalition Perspective (AKP) and the Democratic League of Albanians (DSA),[22] Few weeks earlier, Democratic Union of Albanians (DUA) agreed to join the DP and DSCG's Albanian Coalition "Unanimously".[23]

Priror August 2020 the centre-right minority politics Bosniak Party (BS) announced that it would run independently, as did the centre-right Croatian Civic Initiative (HGI) and the newly-formed centrist Croatian Reform Party (HRS).[24]

On 1 August 2020 the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) decided to run independently, with Andrija Popović as Liberal Party (LP) representative on their electoral list, with incumbent PM Duško Marković as a ballot carrier.[25]

Electoral lists
# Electoral list name Ballot carrier Note
1 Social Democrats – Ivan Brajović - We decide, consistently Ivan Brajović
2 Bosniak Party – Correctly – Rafet Husović Ervin Ibrahimović M
3 HGI – With all heart for Montenegro! Adrian Vuksanović M
4 Social Democratic Party – Strong Montenegro! Draginja Vuksanović
5 Croatian Reform Party of Montenegro – HRS Radovan Marić M
6 Dr. Dritan Abazović – In black and white – Dr. Srđan Pavićević Dritan Abazović
7 Albanian Coalition – Unanimously – DP, DUA, DSCG Fatmir Gjeka M
8 Decisively for Montenegro! DPS – Milo Đukanović Duško Marković
9 For the Future of Montenegro – DF, SNP, Popular Movement Zdravko Krivokapić
10 Albanian List – Genci Nimanbegu, Nik Đeljošaj Nik Gjeloshaj M
11 Aleksa Bečić – Miodrag Lekić – Peace is Our Nation Aleksa Bečić
Source: Officially declared electoral lists, dik.co.me [Montenegrin National Electoral Commission, DIK]

M — denotes the national minority electoral list

Opinion polls

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty. The threshold for a party to elect members is 3%.

[a] – denotes the poll was commissioned by a political party/coalition.

Date Polling Firm/Source DPS DF PCG SNP UCG URA Demos DCG SDP SD BS Forca AA Others Lead
Aug 2020 ICA 35.1 25.9 7.5 15.5 3.1 2.6 5.4 4.4 0.5 9.2
Aug 2020 CeDem 35.3 24.7 6.6 16.5 4.2 5.3 4.8 1.9 0.7 10.6
July 2020 NSPM 35.9 17.2 3.8 4.5 >1 6.1 3.5 17.5 3.4 1.8 3.2 1.3 1.8 18.4
July 2020 HoW[a] 41.2 15.8 6.1 2.4 16.4 3.9 5.9 4.1 2.9 1.3 24.8
June 2020 HoW[a] 39.8 13.8 2.1 5.1 0.8 2.2 2.9 13.2 3.8 6.2 4.2 3.3 2.6 26.0
May 2020 HoW[a] 41.2 12.9 1.4 5.5 0.6 2.8 3.1 12.1 4.4 6.5 4.1 3.2 2.2 28.3
Apr 2020 HoW[a] 40.5 12.5 1.8 5.2 0.9 2.7 2.7 13.5 4.1 6.1 4.2 3.1 2.7 26
Feb 2020 ICA 32.8 23.1 1.6 2.6 0.7 3.3 2.3 11.8 3.1 2.7 5.1 4.5 6.4 9.7
Dec 2019 CeDem 37 13.2 2.2 5.8 1.2 3.7 2.6 15 4.1 4.8 4.9 1 1.6 2.9 22
Oct 2019 NSPM[a] 35.5 20.8 1.9 6.3 2.5 1.7 15.1 3.2 4.4 3.2 2.3 3.1 14.7
Sep 2019 Standard[a] 38 15.3 4.3 4 0.7 2.7 2.5 14.8 2.8 4.3 4 2.6 4.0 22.7
Aug 2019 Ipsos 41 13 3 8 2 2.5 17 2 4 2 >1 2 3.5 24
July 2019 CeDem 34 15.6 2.3 6.6 4.9 3.7 14.6 3.1 5.3 4.3 >1 2.6 3 18.4
Dec 2018 CeDem 41.5 10.1 1.1 6.8 >1 2.8 2.6 20.7 3.5 4 3.2 0.1 2.3 1.3 20.8
Dec 2018 NSPM[a] 42.7 18.4 1.3 4.4 1.2 2.1 1.2 14.1 3.5 4.5 3.1 >1 1.5 2.0 24.3
Mar 2018 CeDem 43 12.6 1.1 5.1 >1 3.7 2.4 21.2 4 1.2 2 2.4 0.2 1.1 21.8
Dec 2017 CeDem 39.9 13 — 4.5 0.4 3.5 3.5 21.3 3.9 3.5 2.7 0.7 1 3.2 18.6
Oct 2017 Ipsos 40 15 — 5 — 3 3 23 3 3 3 >1 1 2 17
Oct 2017 DeFacto 38 12.2 — 4.1 — 1.5 4.3 26.1 3.4 1.9 1.9 2 >1 6.6 11.9
July 2017 CeDem 39 11.6 — 4.9 — 4 5.9 19.9 3.9 3.2 3.1 1.2 1.1 3.7 19.1
Dec 2016 CeDem 36.8 21 — 7.8 — 1.6 6.3 12.2 4.1 2.3 3.4 0.8 1.1 3.7 15.8
Oct 2016 Election results 41.4 20.3 11.1 10.1 5.2 3.2 3.1 1.2 4.2 21.1

Results
Party Votes % +/– Seats +/–
Democratic Party of Socialists
For the Future of Montenegro
Peace is Our Nation
Social Democratic Party
United Reform Action
Bosniak PartyM
Social Democrats
Albanian ListM
Croatian Civic InitiativeM
UnanimouslyM
Croatian Reform PartyM
Invalid/blank votes––––
Total 100–810
Registered voters/turnout541,232–––
M — denotes the national minority lists, for which the 3% threshold does not apply.
gollark: * speol
gollark: Yeeeees, I sometimes faaaaial to assplepselell.
gollark: > problem 1: there are too many botsThiis is not a problem. You are wrong.> problem 2: the people there suckThis is untrue. We have many interesting people and contentoids.> problem 3: its just badThis is axiomatically false.
gollark: So if heavserver is bad, this implies it has problems. Explain them.
gollark: Interesting.

References
  1. Novi izbori kao uslov opozicije za povratak u Parlament, Radio Slobodna Evropa, 30 November 2016
  2. Ponoviti izbore najkasnije do 2018., Mondo.me, 7 February 2017
  3. Balkan Insight (6 August 2020). "Opposition Faces Uphill Battle in Looming Montenegro Election".
  4. Perović: Ne izlazite na izbore, najavite opšti bojkot, Dan online, 20 May 2020
  5. DEMOKRATE NAPUSTILE ODBOR: Povući iz procedure zakon koji izaziva međunacionalnu mržnju, volimpodgoricu.me/Vijesti, 19 December 2020
  6. Reuters (26 December 2019). "Serbs Protest in Montenegro Ahead of Vote on Religious Law". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 5 January 2020.
  7. "Montenegro's Attack on Church Property Will Create Lawless Society". Balkan Insight. 14 June 2019.
  8. Kako se Crna Gora našla u "hibridnim režimima", Vijesti/Radio Free Europe
  9. Crna Gora država pokradenih izbora, Dan Online
  10. Freedom in the World — Montenegro Country Report, Freedom House (2020)
  11. Electoral system, Inter-parliamentary Union
  12. Potpisan sporazum "Da svako ima", Vijesti, 1 May 2019
  13. New political alliance to be set up soon Cafe del Montenegro, 30 April 2019
  14. DF, SNP, Narodni pokret i Prava zajedno na izborima, Vijesti, 31 July 2020
  15. SNP u Narodnom pokretu, Milačić na listi DF-a, CDM, 24 July 2020
  16. Šta piše i ko je potpisao platformu "Crno na bijelo": Smjena vlasti će izroditi drugačiju Crnu Goru, Vijesti
  17. SPP Hazbije Kalača podžala Platformu Crno na bijelo, Vijesti, 2 August 2020
  18. Nova ponuda: Lekić, Rudović, Pavićević i Mijović na izbornoj listi Demokrata, Dnevne novine, 12 July 2020
  19. U Crnoj Gori formiran "Građanski blok", RTS, 12 July 2020
  20. "SDP neće u neprincipijelne koalicije", RTCG, 12 July 2020
  21. ODLUKA PREDSJEDNIŠTVA: SD samostalno na parlamentarne izbore, RTCG, 7 July 2020
  22. Forca, AA i DSA zajedno na izborima, Dan, 28 July 2020
  23. Albanci u dvije kolone, Dan Online, 27 July 2020
  24. Bošnjačka stranka predala listu za predstojeće izbore, Analitika, 3 August 2020
  25. Marković nosilac izborne liste DPS, Vijesti, 1 August 2020
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