2019 North Macedonian presidential election

Presidential elections were held in North Macedonia on 21 April 2019. Three candidates were on the ballot in the first round; Stevo Pendarovski of the ruling Social Democratic Union of Macedonia, Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova of the nationalist opposition VMRO-DPMNE party, and Blerim Reka, an independent representing the Albanian minority. The first round did not result in an absolute majority for any candidate, but Pendarovski won against Siljanovska-Davkova in the second round on 5 May.[1]

2019 North Macedonian presidential election

21 April 2019 (first round) 5 May 2019 (second round)

Nominee Stevo Pendarovski Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova Party SDSM VMRO-DPMNE Popular vote 435,656 377,446 Percentage 53.58% 46.42%

Results of the second round by municipality.

President before election Gjorge Ivanov VMRO-DPMNE Elected President Stevo Pendarovski SDSM

Incumbent President Gjorge Ivanov was constitutionally barred from seeking a third term in office, having previously been elected in 2009 and 2014.

Background

Further information: Macedonia naming dispute

The elections were the first in North Macedonia after the Prespa agreement on the naming dispute, signed on 17 June 2018. A referendum was held on 30 September, in which a majority of voters approved the agreement, although turnout was far below the quorum required to validate the result, mainly because of an organized boycott of the Anti-Prespa agreement bloc. The Assembly subsequently approved the change of the country's name to "North Macedonia" on 11 January 2019, and Greece subsequently ratified the agreement and the accession protocol for NATO.

Incumbent President Gjorge Ivanov was a vocal opponent of the name change and refused to sign the laws and amendments on the matter. However, Assembly Speaker Talat Xhaferi claimed that his signature was enough to enforce the change.[2]

The name change had the support of the government coalition formed by the Social Democrats (SDSM) and the ethnic Albanian Democratic Union for Integration. The nationalist VMRO-DPMNE coalition led by Hristijan Mickoski was in favor of NATO integration but against the name change, although the change was approved in the Assembly with at least four VMRO-DPMNE MPs voting in favour.[3]

After her nomination, VMRO-DPMNE candidate Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova had promised to initiate a second referendum and restore the old name to the country if she won.[4]

Electoral system

The President of North Macedonia is elected using a modified two-round system; a candidate can only be elected in the first round of voting if they receive the equivalent of over 50% of the vote from all registered voters.[5] In the second round, voter turnout must be at least 40% for the result to be deemed valid.[6] Before 2009, the constitution required turnout in the second round to be 50% to validate the result. However, the XXXI amendment approved on 9 January 2009 lowered the threshold to 40%,[6] as the then-government feared the trend of reducing turnouts would lead to presidential elections being frequently invalidated. In the 2009 presidential elections, second round turnout was just 42.6%.[7]

The constitution mandates that the President must be over 40 years of age and have lived in the country for ten of the last fifteen years.

Opinion polls

Before and between the voting rounds, several opinion polls were conducted. The percentages of the polls below are related to only those voters who declared that they would vote for a certain candidate.

First round

Date(s) conducted	Polling firm/Client	Sample size/Type	Pendarovski/SDSM	Siljanovska/VMRO-DPMNE	Reka/AA,Besa	Lead
8-14 Apr 2019	Rating Agency	1,112/Face-to-face	45.5	39.5	15.0	6.0
7-11 Apr 2019	IDSCS/Telma&MCMS	967/Telephone	44.1	38.1	17.8	6.0
4-10 Apr 2019	M-Prospect/MRT	1,197/Telephone	43.2	38.8	18.0	4.4
10 Mar-10 Apr 2019	Samerimpex Impulses/MCMS	1,147/Online	50.4	41.4	8.2	9.0
23-27 Mar 2019	IPIS/Sitel	1,110/Telephone	45.9	42.7	11.3	3.2
13-19 Mar 2019	M-Prospect/Telma&MCMS	1,001/Telephone	42.9	38.4	18.7	4.5

Second round

Date(s) conducted	Polling firm/Client	Sample size/Type	Pendarovski/SDSM	Siljanovska/VMRO-DPMNE	Lead
13-19 Mar 2019	M-Prospect/Telma&MCMS	1,001/Telephone	55.3	44.7	10.6

Results

To win in the first round, a candidate would have had to receive at least 904,066 votes, equivalent to 50% of the number of registered voters.

Candidate		Party	First round		Second round
			Votes	%	Votes	%
	Stevo Pendarovski	Social Democratic Union of Macedonia	322,581	44.75	435,656	53.58
	Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova	VMRO-DPMNE	318,341	44.16	377,446	46.42
	Blerim Reka	Independent	79,888	11.08
Invalid/blank votes			32,696	–	30,406	–
Total			753,520	100	843,508	100
Registered voters/turnout			1,808,131	41.67	1,808,131	46.65
Source: SEC

References

1. Supporter of North Macedonia Name Change Wins Presidency. New York Times, 6 May 2019.
2. "Ivanov: Amnesty is a blackmail for votes for the Prespes Agreement". Independent Balkan News Agency. 28 December 2018.
3. "Deputies agree historic name change for Macedonia". France 24. 11 January 2019.
4. Силјановска ќе игра „втор референдум“ за Договорот од Преспа! 18.02.2019; Deutsche Welle.
5. Polls Open in Macedonia Presidential Elections Balkan Insight, 13 April 2014
6. Amendment XXXI Constitution of North Macedonia
7. Anna Fruhstorfer & Michael Hein (2016) Constitutional Politics in Central and Eastern Europe: From Post-Socialist Transition to the Reform of Political Systems Springer, p235