2018 Mayo by-election

A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Mayo took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie.[1]

2018 Mayo by-election
28 July 2018 (2018-07-28)
The Division of Mayo (SA) in the House of Representatives
Registered107,554
Turnout85.52% 8.67
  First party Second party
 
Candidate Rebekha Sharkie Georgina Downer
Party Centre Alliance Liberal
Percentage 44.37% 37.44%
Swing 9.51% 0.32%
2CP 57.53% 42.47%
2CP swing 2.56 2.56
MP before election

Rebekha Sharkie
Centre Alliance

 Elected MP

Rebekha Sharkie
Centre Alliance

In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Sharkie to retain the electorate with an increased margin.[2]

Background

Due to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing parliamentary eligibility crisis, Sharkie and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day,[1] while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons.[3] The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history.[4] The others are:

Liberal candidate Georgina Downer deleted her Twitter account on 13 June 2018, claiming that trolls had been attacking her with bad language, with counterclaims from Twitter users that she had deleted legitimate policy questions posted to her Facebook account.[5]

Historically, the rural seat of Mayo has been a comfortably safe Liberal seat in two-party terms, though over the past two decades, the Liberals in Mayo had been repeatedly left vulnerable by several strong election results from minor parties and independents. Mayo was represented by Liberal candidate Georgina Downer's father, Alexander Downer, for the first 24 years of Mayo's 34-year history.[6] Further back, others in the Downer family including a Premier of South Australia represented overlapping geographical areas, in the federal seat of Angas and the state seats of Barossa and Encounter Bay.[7][8][9]

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[10]

  • Friday, 11 May 2018 – Speaker acceptance of resignation
  • Friday, 15 June 2018 – Issue of writ
  • Friday, 22 June 2018 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm)
  • Thursday, 5 July 2018 – Close of nominations (12 noon)
  • Friday, 6 July 2018 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon)
  • Tuesday, 10 July 2018 – Start of early voting
  • Saturday, 28 July 2018 – Polling day (8am to 6pm)
  • Friday, 10 August 2018 – Last day for receipt of postal votes
  • Sunday, 23 September 2018 – Last day for return of writs

Candidates
Candidates (7) in ballot paper order[7]
Party Candidate Background
  Christian Democrats Tracey-Lee Cane Pastor[11]
  People Kelsie Harfouche Beauty therapist and business owner[12]
  Greens Major Sumner High-profile Ngarrindjeri elder, Order of Australia recipient, community worker and activist[13]
  Liberal Georgina Downer Lawyer, Institute of Public Affairs research fellow, former diplomat[14]
  Centre Alliance Rebekha Sharkie Previous MP for Mayo elected at the 2016 federal election[15]
  Liberal Democrats Stephen Humble Contested the 2012 Port Adelaide state by-election and the upper house at the 2018 state election[7]
  Labor Reg Coutts Telecommunications consultant and academic professor[16]

The Family First Party (now the Australian Conservatives) contested Mayo at the last election on 4.6% (−2.5%) but declined to contest the by-election.[17]

Polling
Mayo by-election polling
Date Firm Commissioned by Sample MoE[18] Primary vote TCP vote
CA LIB ALP GRN OTH UND CA LIB
23 July 2018 YouGov−Galaxy The Advertiser [19] 540 ±4.2% 47% 35% 9% 7% 2% − 59% 41%
21 June 2018 ReachTEL Australia Institute [20] 736 ±3.6% 43.5% 32.7% 8.2% 9.0% 4.1% 2.6% 62% 38%
7 June 2018 YouGov−Galaxy The Advertiser [21] 515 ±4.3% 44% 37% 11% 6% 2% 2% 58% 42%
5 June 2018 ReachTEL Australia Institute [22] 1031 ±3.0% 40.1% 34.4% 7.7% 10.7% 3.5% 3.6% 58% 42%
2016 election 34.9% 37.8% 13.5% 8.1% 5.8% 55.0% 45.0%

Results
Further information: Electoral results for the Division of Mayo
Mayo by-election: 28 July 2018[23][24]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Centre Alliance Rebekha Sharkie 39,369 44.37 +9.51
Liberal Georgina Downer 33,219 37.44 −0.32
Greens Major Sumner 7,898 8.90 +0.85
Labor Reg Coutts 5,370 6.05 −7.47
Christian Democrats Tracey-Lee Cane 1,348 1.52 +1.52
Liberal Democrats Stephen Humble 809 0.91 −0.30
People's Party Kelsie Harfouche 716 0.81 +0.81
Total formal votes 88,729 96.47 −0.64
Informal votes 3,246 3.53 +0.64
Turnout 91,975 85.52 −8.67
Two-party-preferred result
Liberal Georgina Downer 49,375 55.65 +0.30
Labor Reg Coutts 39,354 44.35 −0.30
Two-candidate-preferred result
Centre Alliance Rebekha Sharkie 51,042 57.53 +2.56
Liberal Georgina Downer 37,687 42.47 −2.56
Centre Alliance hold Swing+2.56
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See also

References
  1. Citizenship drama flares again, with four MPs and one senator on the way out after High Court ruling: ABC 9 May 2018
  2. July 2018 Federal By-elections: Antony Green ABC
  3. Federal Member for Perth Tim Hammond quits politics for family, triggering WA by-election: ABC 2 May 2018
  4. "Mark your calendars, the date has been set for five by-elections". ABC News. 24 May 2018. Retrieved 24 May 2018.
  5. "Georgina Downer deletes Twitter account midway through Mayo campaign". ABC News. 13 June 2018. Retrieved 17 June 2018.
  6. Grattan, Michelle. "Liberals' Georgina Downer trailing in early Mayo poll". The Conversation Australia. Retrieved 10 June 2018.
  7. 2018 Mayo by-election guide: Antony Green ABC
  8. Downer, Sir Alexander Russell (Alick) (1910–1981): Australian Dictionary of Biography
  9. Downer, Sir John William (1843–1915): Australian Dictionary of Biography
  10. "2018 Mayo by-election". Australian Electoral Commission.
  11. Candidate details, 2018 Mayo by-election: AEC
  12. "By-election 2018 endorsed South Australian candidates". Australian People's Party.
  13. Greens candidate Major “Moogy” Sumner to contest Mayo by-election: The Advertiser 17 May 2018
  14. "Georgina Downer endorsed as Liberal candidate for Mayo ahead of by-election". ABC News. 14 May 2018. Retrieved 14 May 2018.
  15. Labor's quadruple edge in the citizenship by-elections: Candidates, time, history and money - ABC 10 May 2018
  16. "NBN consultant Reg Coutts unveiled as Labor candidate for Mayo by-election". ABC. Adelaide. 7 June 2018. Retrieved 9 June 2018.
  17. Sharkie "doing a good job", says Labor's Mayo hopeful: InDaily 7 June 2018
  18. Margin of error calculator
  19. "Voters look set to entrench Sharkie in Mayo - InDaily". InDaily. 2018-07-23. Retrieved 2018-07-23.
  20. Longman and Mayo: New Polling on Company Tax Cuts and Voter Priorities for Government Revenue - The Australia Institute 24 June 2018
  21. By-elections and preselections: The Poll Bludger 8 June 2018
  22. 5 June 2018 Mayo by-election polling: ReachTEL 6 June 2018
  23. "Mayo by-election results: AEC".
  24. "Mayo by-election results: ABC".
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