2016 The Republicans (France) presidential primary

The Republicans held a presidential primary election, officially called the open primary of the right and centre (French: primaire ouverte de la droite et du centre), to select a candidate for the 2017 French presidential election. It took place on 20 November 2016, with a runoff on 27 November since no candidate obtained at least 50% of the vote in the first round.[1] It was the first time an open primary had been held for The Republicans or its predecessors.[2]

The Republicans presidential primary, 2016

20–27 November 2016[1]

Candidate François Fillon Alain Juppé Party LR LR Popular vote 2,919,874 1,471,898 Percentage 66.5% 33.5%

Most voted candidate by department in the second round:   François Fillon   Alain Juppé

Previous UMP nominee Nicolas Sarkozy LR nominee François Fillon

In the first round of the Republicans primary on November 20, François Fillon won an upset victory with 44% of the vote, while Alain Juppé - long held by most opinion polls as the favorite to win the nomination - came in a distant second with 29%. Nicolas Sarkozy, who was projected to come in second behind Juppé, was eliminated with just under 21% of the vote.

In the runoff round, Fillon won by an even larger margin with nearly twice as many votes as Juppé (66.5% to 33.5%). Of the five departments won by Sarkozy in the first round, all but one switched to Fillon in the runoff. Similarly, of the thirteen departments that originally voted for Juppé, nine switched to Fillon in the second round.

Voting procedures

Ballot papers used in the first round

Unlike previous Union for a Popular Movement primaries, this was the first primary to be open to the general public.[2] The first round of voting took place on 20 November 2016. Voting booths were open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.[3] A runoff was held on 27 November after no candidate obtained at least 50% of the vote in the first round.[1]

All registered voters were allowed to vote in the primary, as well as minors whose eighteenth birthday was before 23 April 2017.[4] 10,228 voting booths were established with each person on the voting register attached to an office.[5] To receive a ballot, a voter must pay 2 euros.[6]

People abroad who wanted to vote in The Republicans party were given electronic voting machines to do so.[7]

Candidates

Candidates from The Republicans had to obtain the support of 20 members of the National Assembly, 2,500 party members and 250 elected representatives to participate.[8] For candidates from other parties, the party themselves would decide the conditions for their submission into the primary.[6] Seven candidates were accepted by the High Authority on September 6, 2016:[9]

Validated candidates

Name, age		Details and notes
	Jean-François Copé[1] (56)	President of the UMP 2012–2014 General Secretary of the UMP 2010–2012 Mayor of Meaux since 2005 and 1995–2002 Minister of the Budget 2005–2007 Member of the National Assembly for Seine-et-Marne's 6th constituency since 2002 Copé announced his candidacy on 14 February 2016 at 20:00 on France 2 – while Nicolas Sarkozy was speaking on TF1 – a few weeks after the release of his book The French Start. After nearly 18 months of media silence, Copé said he was "ready" to return to center stage. Copé was quoted on France 2 as "being very hypocritical to delay unnecessarily", even when a judge's decision on the "sad Bygmalion case" arrived the previous Monday. Copé had been placed under attended witness status and thus escaped indictment.
	François Fillon[10] (66)	Prime Minister of France 2007–2012 Minister of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transport and Housing 2012–2012 Minister of National Education 2004–2005 Minister of Social Affairs 2002–2004 Member of the National Assembly for Paris' 2nd constituency since 2012 Senator for Sarthe 2005–2007 Fillon announced his candidacy in April 2015 by declaring that he is "a candidate to bring a project of rupture and progress around an ambition to make France the first European power in ten years". He announced in January 2016 that he would leave politics if he fails to win the primary. Fillon had also committed, as Alain Juppé did, to serve only one term if he was elected President in 2017.
	Alain Juppé[11] (75)	Prime Minister of France 1995–1997 Minister of Foreign and European Affairs 2011–2012 and 1993–1995 Minister of Defence and Veterans Affairs 2010–2011 Minister of Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and Sea 2007–2007 Mayor of Bordeaux since 2006 and 1995–2004 Government Spokesperson 1986–1988 Minister of the Budget 1986–1988 Juppé announced his intention to contest the 2016 Republicans (formerly UMP) internal election, which decided who will be the candidate of the right-wing for the 2017 presidential election, on 20 August 2014. The most popular politician in France, he is described by The Daily Telegraph as "a consensual conservative seen as less divisive than Nicolas Sarkozy".[12][13]
	Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet[1][2] (47)	Member of the National Assembly for Essonne's 4th constituency since 2012 and 2002–2007 Mayor of Longjumeau 2008–2013 Minister of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transport and Housing 2010–2012 Kosciusko-Morizet declared her candidacy on 8 March 2016, on the occasion of the International Women's Day, stating that "I think we can finally change politics. I am a candidate to give everyone, every French person, control of their life."
	Bruno Le Maire[1][2] (51)	Member of the French National Assembly for Eure since 2012 French Minister of Agriculture 2009–2012 Le Maire officially declared his candidacy at a public meeting in Vesoul on 23 February 2016. "My decision is simple, strong, unwavering. Yes, I am a candidate for president," he said on stage. Le Maire had earlier left little doubt about his participation in the primary. "If I told you that I was not getting ready for the primary, I would be lying. And I do not like to lie," he had said on RTL 4 in January. In the wake of his candidacy, Bruno Le Maire has also released a book about his vision of France entitled Do Not Resign. He already enjoyed broad support, including that of Michel Barnier and Yves Jégo, even as the UDI had not yet decided on its participation in the primary.
	Jean-Frédéric Poisson[1] (57)	President of the Christian Democratic Party since 2013 Member of the National Assembly for Yvelines since 2012 As head of the Christian Democratic Party, he was their candidate in the centre-right's 2016 primary.
	Nicolas Sarkozy (65)	President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra 2007–2012 Minister of the Interior 2005–2007 Minister of Finance March 2004–November 2004 Mayor of Neuilly-sur-Seine 1983-2002 Sarkozy announced his intention to contest the primary on 22 August 2016.[14]

Withdrawn candidates

• Xavier Bertrand,[1] President of the Regional Council of Hauts-de-France since 2016, former Mayor of Saint-Quentin from 2010-2016; former Minister of Labour, Employment and Health from 2010–2012; former Secretary-General of the UMP from 2008–2010
• Christian Estrosi,[1] President of the Regional Council of Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur since 2015; Mayor of Nice since 2008; former Deputy Minister of Industry from 2009–2010; former Deputy Minister of Overseas France from 2007–2008; former Deputy Minister of Planning of the Territory from 2005–2007

Opinion polls

First round

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size
			Fillon UMP/LR	Juppé UMP/LR	Kosciusko-Morizet UMP/LR	Le Maire UMP/LR	Sarkozy UMP/LR	Others/Undecided
Le Parisien/i-Télé-CQFD	5–6 Jun 2014	988	13%	19%	–	–	28%	40%
Ifop	13–16 Apr 2015	704	5%	33%	–	12%	42%	8%
Ifop	4–9 Jun 2015	1,879	7%	42%	–	13%	33%	5%
Ipsos	25–31 Aug 2015	519	11%	40%	–	11%	34%	4%
Ifop	3–4 Sep 2015	1,079	9%	30%	3%	–	21%	37%
Ifop	25 Sep–9 Oct 2015	5,220	8%	37%	2%	6%	37%	10%
BVA/Presse Régionale	6–15 Oct 2015	11,244	8%	31%	2%	11%	38%	10%
Ifop	9 Oct-16 Nov 2015	5,274	9%	35%	2%	9%	34%	11%
Opinion Way	26 Oct–17 Nov 2015	400	21%	29%	–	10%	11%	29%
Ifop	16 Dec 2015–7 Jan 2016	5,989	12%	38%	4%	12%	29%	5%
Ifop	11-22 Jan 2016	4,974	12%	41%	2%	10%	30%	5%
Ipsos-Sopra Steria	22-31 Jan 2016	1,333	9%	44%	2%	11%	32%	2%
BVA/Orange et iTélé	11-12 Feb 2016	1,053	11%	47%	9%	10%	11%	12%
Ifop	1-15 Feb 2016	4,967	11%	39%	3%	11%	32%	7%
Elabe/BFMTV	16 Feb-16 Mar 2016	5,001	11%	41%	4%	13%	23%	8%
Odoxa/Le Parisien	18 Feb-10 Mar 2016	4,036	9%	41%	3%	16%	23%	8%
Ifop	23 Feb-18 Mar 2016	8,090	8%	38%	3%	16%	27%	8%
Ifop	29 Mar-14 Apr 2016	5,775	15%	37%	3%	12%	26%	7%
Odoxa/Le Parisien	17 Mar-29 Apr 2016	1,660	9%	41%	4%	15%	24%	7%
Ifop	28 Apr-20 May 2016	8,604	12%	35%	4%	13%	27%	9%
Opinion Way	19–23 May 2016	808	13%	39%	3%	13%	27%	5%
Odoxa	9 Jun 2016	1,033	9%	28%	–	7%	54%	2%
Ifop	25 May–17 Jun 2016	1,037	11%	35%	4%	13%	28%	9%
Ipsos	17–26 Jun 2016	1,234	9%	38%	2%	16%	30%	5%
Elabe	17 May–29 Jun 2016	624	11%	39%	2%	12%	29%	7%
Harris Interactive	12-14 Sept 2016	563	10%	37%	3%	9%	37%	4%
Ipsos	9–18 Sept 2016	1,216	10%	37%	4%	13%	33%	3%
Ifop	22 Aug–5 Sept 2016	620	10%	35%	4%	10%	33%	8%
BVA	13–20 Sept 2016	774	11%	38%	4%	11%	34%	2%
Ifop	9–26 Sept 2016	527	12%	35%	4%	13%	31%	5%
Kantar Sofres	21-26 Sept 2016	561	8%	39%	4%	13%	33%	3%
Harris Interactive	3–5 Oct 2016	651	12%	39%	3%	8%	35%	3%
Odoxa	1 Sept–6 Oct 2016	680	11%	39%	4.5%	12%	31%	2.5%
Kantar Sofres	30 Sept–6 Oct 2016	586	11%	42%	4%	11%	28%	4%
Odoxa	10–20 Oct 2016	621	11%	43%	4%	13%	26%	3%
Harris Interactive	7–9 Nov 2016	975	17%	39%	4%	7%	31%	2%
Kantar Sofres	7–10 Nov 2016	714	18%	36%	4%	9%	30%	3%
Odoxa	9–11 Nov 2016	554	20%	36%	5%	8%	26%	5%
BVA	3–13 Nov 2016	928	18%	37%	4%	9%	29%	3%
Ipsos Sopra-Steria	8–13 Nov 2016	1,337	22%	36%	3%	7%	29%	3%
Ifop	31 Oct–14 Nov 2016	647	20%	33%	3%	8%	30%	6%
Elabe	9–15 Nov 2016	680	21%	34%	5%	7%	30%	3%
Opinion Way	13–15 Nov 2016	828	25%	33%	4%	9%	25%	4%
Ifop	10–17 Nov 2016	744	27%	31%	2%	7%	30%	3%
Ipsos	18 Nov 2016	807	30%	29%	3.5%	5%	29%	3.5%
First round results	20 November 2016	–	44.1%	28.6%	2.6%	2.4%	20.7%	1.8%

Second round

Polls conducted prior to the first round

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size
			Juppé LR	Fillon LR	Undecided
Odoxa/Le Parisien	17 Mar-29 Apr 2016	1,660	72%	28%	–
Opinion Way	19–23 May 2016	808	66%	34%	–

Polls conducted after the first round

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size
			Juppé LR	Fillon LR	Undecided
Opinion Way	20 Nov 2016	3,095	44%	56%	–
Ifop-Fiducial	21-23 Nov 2016	6,901	35%	65%	–
Second round results	27 November 2016	–	33.5%	66.5%	–

Hypothetical Polling

Results

Most voted candidate by department in the first round:

  François Fillon

  Alain Juppé

  Nicolas Sarkozy

In the first round of the primary on November 20, Fillon won an upset victory with 44% of the vote, while Juppé - long held by most opinion polls as the favorite to win the nomination - came in a distant second with 29%.[15][16] Sarkozy, who was projected to come in second behind Juppé, was eliminated with just under 21% of the vote. In his concession speech, Sarkozy endorsed Fillon and vowed to "embark on a life with more private passions and fewer public passions."[17] This led to some media outlets declaring that "Sarkozy's political career [had] been effectively ended."[18]

In the runoff round, Fillon won by an even larger margin with nearly twice as many votes as Juppé (66.5% to 33.5%). Of the five departments won by Sarkozy in the first round, all but one switched to Fillon in the runoff. Similarly, of the thirteen departments that originally voted for Juppé, nine switched to Fillon in the second round.

 Summary of The Republicans 20 and 27 November 2016 presidential primary

Candidates		Parties		1st round		2nd round
				Votes	%	Votes	%
	François Fillon	The Republicans	LR	1,890,266	44.1%	2,919,874	66.5%
	Alain Juppé	The Republicans	LR	1,224,855	28.6%	1,471,898	33.5%
	Nicolas Sarkozy	The Republicans	LR	886,137	20.7%
	Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet	The Republicans	LR	109,655	2.6%
	Bruno Le Maire	The Republicans	LR	102,168	2.4%
	Jean-Frédéric Poisson	Christian Democratic Party	PCD	62,346	1.5%
	Jean-François Copé	The Republicans	LR	12,787	0.3%
Total				4,288,214	100%	4,391,772	100%
Valid votes				4,288,214	99.8%	4,391,772	99.7%
Spoilt and null votes				9,883	0.2%	13,040	0.3%
Total				4,298,097	100%	4,404,812	100%
Table of results ordered by number of votes received in first round. Official results by High Authority. Source: First round result · Second round result

See also

• Socialist Party (France) presidential primary, 2017

References

1. "Primaire Les Républicains 2016 : résultat favorable à Juppé dans les sondages". L'Internaute/La Rédaction. 26 January 2016. Retrieved 29 January 2016.
2. Vinocur, Nicholas (11 January 2016). "Big fight for the French Right". Politico Europe. Retrieved 11 January 2016.
3. 2016, Haute autorité de la Primaire de la droite et du centre. "Primaire de la droite et du centre". www.primaire2016.org. Archived from the original on 2017-02-05. Retrieved 2017-08-04.CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
4. 2016, Haute autorité de la Primaire de la droite et du centre. "Primaire de la droite et du centre". www.primaire2016.org. Archived from the original on 2017-09-04. Retrieved 2017-08-04.CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
5. 2016, Haute autorité de la Primaire de la droite et du centre. "Primaire de la droite et du centre". www.primaire2016.org. Archived from the original on 2017-06-07. Retrieved 2017-08-04.CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
6. Goar, Matthieu (2015-04-02). "Le projet de charte de la primaire UMP". Le Monde.fr (in French). ISSN 1950-6244. Retrieved 2017-08-04.
7. "Les expatriés pourront voter par Internet à la primaire de la droite". RTL.fr (in French). Retrieved 2017-08-04.
8. Lorimer, Marta (1 June 2016). "The 2017 French presidential election: The race has started… and so far it has more candidates than voters". LSE. Retrieved 9 June 2016.
9. "Haute Autorité de la Primaire. Décision – 21 septembre 2016 (HAP 2016-12 D), Liste des candidats à la primaire" (PDF) (in French). 21 September 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-11-17. Retrieved 1 December 2016.
10. "Primaire de l'UMP : Fillon sera candidat "quoi qu'il arrive"". Le Monde. May 9, 2013. Retrieved September 8, 2014.
11. Inti Laundaro (August 20, 2014). "Alain Juppé Declares Intention to Seek French Presidency in 2017". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 8, 2014.
12. "Ex-PM Juppé announces bid for 2017". France24. Archived from the original on 30 June 2015. Retrieved 27 June 2015.
13. "Marion Maréchal-Le Pen: the new wonder-girl of France's far-right". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 2 January 2016.
14. "Nicolas Sarkozy declares candidacy for French presidential election". The Guardian. Retrieved 22 August 2016.
15. Henry Samuel (November 20, 2016). "Nicolas Sarkozy crashes out of French Right-wing primaries as Thatcherite Francois Fillon takes surprise lead". The Telegraph. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
16. William Horobin (November 20, 2016). "Nicolas Sarkozy, in Upset, Is Knocked Out of Race for French Presidency". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved November 21, 2016.
17. "France Sarkozy: Ex-president exits after defeat". BBC. November 21, 2016. Retrieved November 21, 2016.
18. Angelique Chrisafis (November 20, 2016). "Sarkozy defeated in primary for French right's presidential candidate". The Guardian. Retrieved November 20, 2016.

External links

• Official website and results