2012 YQ1

2012 YQ1 is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object and a potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group, approximately 200 meters in diameter. It was first observed on 19 December 2012, by astronomers Andrey Oreshko and Timur Kryachko at the Elena Remote Observatory (G32) located in the Chilean Atacama desert.[1][2]

2012 YQ1
Orbits of a typical PHA (Potentially Hazardous Asteroid) and NEA (Near-Earth Asteroid).
Discovery[1][2]
Discovered byA. Oreshko
T. Kryachko
Discovery siteElena Remote Obs.
Discovery date19 December 2012
(first observed only)
Designations
2012 YQ1
NEO · Apollo · PHA [2][3]
Orbital characteristics[3]
Epoch 13 January 2016 (JD 2457400.5)
Uncertainty parameter 6
Aphelion3.11880 AU (466.566 Gm)
Perihelion0.86916 AU (130.024 Gm)
1.99398 AU (298.295 Gm)
Eccentricity0.56411
2.82 yr (1028.4 d)
12.74578°
0° 21m 0.158s /day
Inclination5.15193°
120.16813°
42.09537°
Earth MOID0.00774939 AU (1,159,292 km)
Physical characteristics
Mean diameter
~220 m (720 ft)[4]
21.1[3] · 20.9[5]

    Description

    With a 4-day observation arc, the asteroid had a 1 in 3 million chance of impacting in 2106.[4] With a 10-day observation arc, the asteroid had a 1 in 10 million chance of impacting in 2106.[5] On 5 January 2013, the asteroid passed 0.10 AU (15,000,000 km; 9,300,000 mi) from Earth.[3] It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 8 January 2013.[6] It has an observation arc of 32 days and an orbital uncertainty of 7.[3] Since the asteroid has a poorly known orbit, the cone of uncertainty quickly multiplies as a result of perturbations by the inner planets and prevents precise/reliable ephemeris data. Eliminating an entry on the Sentry Risk Table is a negative prediction; a prediction of where it will NOT be.

    In 2013, an article, originally posted on The Voice of Russia[7] had a poorly researched headline stating "We have 93 years left till the next End of the World". This story was reposted on Space Daily, but then astronomer Phil Plait clarified that it was "a fascinating mix of fact and error. A lot of what it says is accurate, but the most important claim—that an asteroid will impact Earth in 2106—is simply wrong."[8]

    Orbit (blue) of asteroid 2012 YQ1 for 6 February 2013
    gollark: As in, ones without a preexisting database.
    gollark: Well, new ones, at least.
    gollark: Krist nodes are nightmarish to run.
    gollark: Just "".
    gollark: PotatOS doesn't have enchat built in.

    See also
    • Torino Scale
    • Palermo scale

    References
    1. "MPEC 2012-Y15 : 2012 YQ1". IAU Minor Planet Center. 21 December 2012. Retrieved 5 February 2013. (K12Y01Q)
    2. "2012 YQ1". Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 7 February 2018.
    3. "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2012 YQ1)" (2013-07-04 last obs.). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 7 February 2018.
    4. "Observations of small Solar-System bodies". HohmannTransfer. 24 December 2012. Retrieved 6 February 2013. (3.3e-07 = 1 in 3,030,000 chance)
    5. "Observations of small Solar-System bodies". HohmannTransfer. 30 December 2012. Retrieved 5 February 2013.
    6. "Date/Time Removed". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Retrieved 19 March 2012.
    7. Yulia Zamanskaya (5 February 2013). "We have 93 years left till the next End of the World: killer asteroid to hit Earth in 2106". The Voice of Russia. Archived from the original on 1 December 2015. Retrieved 14 September 2015.
    8. Phil Plait (13 February 2013). "No, An Asteroid Is NOT Going to Hit Earth in 2106". Slate.

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