2009 Creigh Deeds gubernatorial campaign

Creigh Deeds was the 2009 Democratic nominee for Governor of Virginia. He has been a Virginia State Senator since 2001 and was the Democratic Party's nominee for Attorney General of Virginia in 2005. He announced his candidacy for governor on December 13, 2007, in an online video.[1] His primary opposition for the Democratic nomination was former Virginia House of Delegates member Brian Moran and former DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe. Deeds won the nomination by a large margin, taking about 50 percent of the vote in the June 9, 2009 Democratic primary.[2] However, Deeds lost the gubernatorial race held on November 3, to Bob McDonnell, 41.25% to 58.61%.[3]

Deeds for Virginia
Campaign2009 Virginia gubernatorial election
CandidateRobert Creigh Deeds
Virginia State Senator (Since 2001)
Virginia Delegate (1992-2001)
AffiliationDemocratic Party
StatusLost election
Website
Deeds for Virginia

Background

Creigh Deeds had been a member of the Virginia House of Delegates from 1991 to 2001[4] and has been a member of the state senate since he won a special election in the 25th district in 2001.[4]

Positions

Deeds cast himself as a centrist upon entering the race due to his stances on gun control, the death penalty, and gay marriage.

Key personnel
  • Joe Abbey - Campaign Manager[5]
  • Brooke Borkenhagen - Communications Director[6]
  • Peter Jackson - Senior Communications Advisor[6]

Primary campaign

Timeline
Deeds at the campus of Northern Virginia Community College participating in a Washington Post debate.

Deeds announced his candidacy in December 2007. He was quickly joined by Delegate Brian Moran who announced on January 3, 2008.[7] Initially, Deeds had built up momentum, having lost the race for attorney general in 2005 by just 323 votes[8] Deeds's strategy was to campaign to the governor's mansion through his position in the Virginia State Senate by proposing several favorable legislative actions including proposing a measure to give a $10,000 tax-credit to businesses that made "job creating investments"[9] and supporting eliminating the sales tax on renewable energy purchases.[10]

Deeds picked up several major endorsements early in the race such as The International Police Union[11] and (then) Charlottesville Mayor David Brown.[12]

Deeds, along with fellow gubernatorial candidates participated in the Virginia Capitol Correspondents Association dinner.[13]

Deeds was prohibited from raising funds during the 2009 session of the Virginia General Assembly. In addition, it was difficult for Deeds to campaign as he was predominately on the Senate Floor a majority of the time during the session.[14] Deeds returned to the campaign trail in March and began his "Commonwealth Conversations Tour". His campaign has made stops in Bristol,[15] Roanoke[16] as well as other cities.

Deeds announced his 1st quarter fund-raising totals on April 9, 2009. Due to the fact that Deeds participated in the legislative session, his fundraising totals were less than McAuliffe and Moran. Deeds raised approximately $600,000,[17] compared to $800,000 for Moran and $4.2 million for McAuliffe.[18] Deeds reported that he had $1.2 million cash on hand, compared to Moran's $824,000, and that 97% of his contributions came from in-state, compared to 90% for Moran and 18% for McAuliffe.[19]

In early May 2009, Deeds laid off about five campaign staffers, in order to keep airing television ads. After the layoffs, Deeds had 25 staffers across the state and six offices in Charlottesville, Richmond, Hampton Roads, Roanoke, Southside and Northern Virginia.[18]

In late May 2009, Deeds began gaining momentum, according to various polling results.[20] This was due in part to the Washington Post's endorsement of Deeds on May 22.[21]

Polling
Source Dates administered Terry McAuliffe Brian Moran Creigh Deeds
Survey USA June 8 30% 21% 42%
Public Policy Polling June 6–7 26% 24% 40%
Suffolk University June 4 20% 20% 27%
Daily Kos/Research 2000 June 1–3 26% 27% 30%
Survey USA May 31 June 2 35% 26% 29%
Public Policy Polling May 28–31 24% 22% 27%
Public Policy Polling May 19–21, 2009 29% 20% 20%
Daily Kos/Research 2000 May 18–20, 2009 36% 22% 13%
Survey USA May 17–19, 2009 37% 22% 26%
Public Policy Polling May 1–3, 2009 30% 20% 14%
Survey USA April 25–27, 2009 38% 22% 22%
Research 2000 April 6–8, 2009 19% 24% 16%
Public Policy Polling March 27–29, 2009 18% 22% 15%
Public Policy Polling February 28–March 1, 2009 21% 19% 14%
Public Policy Polling January 30–February 1, 2009 18% 18% 11%

In early results of the three polls taken of the primary race, Deeds had registered at third place. Deeds was also the only candidate prohibited from campaigning due to the January/February session of the General Assembly which took him off the campaign trail. The March poll by Public Policy Polling (PPP) showed Deeds at 15%, 3 points behind McAuliffe's 18% and 7 points behind Moran's 22%. Deeds had also led with independent voters 21%19% over Moran according to the PPP poll released on March 31, 2009.

During late May, 2009, several polls showed Deeds gaining ground. These include Survey USA showing Deeds at 26%.

The first time Deeds lead in a poll after Terry McAuliffe's entrance came on June 2, 2009, when PPP announced the results of its second-to-last primary poll. The poll showed Deeds leading with 27% followed by 24% for McAuliffe and 22% for Moran[22]

Grassroots support

Deeds maintained thorough grassroots support throughout the 2009 campaign. This included ground support at debates as well a rallies and phone-banks throughout Deeds' campaign offices. Deeds maintained his campaign headquarters in Charlottesville[23] where phone banking the campaign organizes phone banking and other campaign activities.[24]

Deeds, like both of his primary opponents, also maintained online grass-roots support. Deeds offered blogger "badges" to identify blogger support for his campaign.[25] Several prominent Virginian bloggers endorsed Deeds such as Kenneth Bernstein,[26] Alan Zimmerman,[27] and others.[28][29]

Advertising

Deeds campaign manager Joe Abbey announced the campaign's decision to go on air via email sent to supporters. This email also contained a link to see one of the ads as well as a link to donate to "Contribute... To keep Creigh's ad on the air" in his words. The same day, the Deeds Campaign announced their decision to purchase air time on four major media markets; Bristol, Richmond, Hampton Roads, as well as Roanoke, Virginia[30]

The 2 campaign advertisements, entitled "Education Story"[31] and "Most Qualified",[32] both feature Deeds and others in front of a white background with a narrator discussing Deeds issues/plans.

Creigh Deeds: Growing up, we didn't have much, but education was always a priority. My Mom sent me off to college with just 4 twenty bills, so I know that that education is the best investment Virginia can make for our children and for our future...

— Deeds in the beginning of his ad entitled "Education Story"[31]

Announcer:The Democrat most qualified to be our next governor: Creigh Deeds. A prosecutor who wrote Megan's Law to protect our children. The leader who stood with Governors Warner and Kaine to protect our public schools and colleges. And now, a detailed plan to rebuild our economy with innovative investments in transportation, local schools, and higher education...

— Announcer in Deeds' second ad entitled "Most Qualified"[32]

June 9th primary
Results of the Democratic primaries. Blue denotes counties/cities won by Creigh Deeds, red denotes counties/cities won by Terry McAuliffe, and yellow denotes counties/cities won by Brian Moran.

The State of Virginia held its primary election on June 9, 2009, with polls open from 6 am to 7 pm.[33] Turnout was expected from anywhere between 185,000[34] to 300,000.[35] Not Larry Sabato projected in Crystal Ball, Creigh Deeds winning the Democratic primary at 7:29 PM[36] followed by FiveThirtyEight.com at 7:45,[37] as well as the Associated Press around the same time.[38] Deeds won handily, amassing approximately 50% of the vote to Mcauliffe's and Moran's 26% and 24% respectively.[39] Deeds won in most geographic areas of the Commonwealth including winning Arlington over Moran 47%-37%,[40] and winning Virginia Beach over McAuliffe 46%-33%[41] Deeds won 10 out of Virginia's 11 congressional districts including the one held by Moran's older brother Congressman Jim Moran[42]

Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary, 2009[39]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Creigh Deeds 158,823 49.77%
Democratic Terry McAuliffe 84,462 26.45%
Democratic Brian Moran 75,824 23.77%

General election campaign

Timeline

After gaining the Democratic nomination, Creigh Deeds appeared alongside Governor Tim Kaine and former opponents Brian Moran and Terry McAuliffe at a Democratic Unity Event.[43] Deeds also appeared with fellow running mates Jody Wagner and Steve Shannon in Williamsburg, Virginia along with Senators Warner and Webb.[44]

Deeds at a campaign stop in Arlington, Virginia

Throughout August, Deeds started a campaign tour entitled "Deeds Country" designed to garner votes from traditionally Republican swaths of the state.[45] While this tour was praised by some like Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling,[46] it was scorned by several Democratic bloggers such as Miles Grant, who said "how many Obama voters are going to be fired up (ready to go) when they see Deeds driving a gas-guzzler down dusty rural roads?"[47]

As the campaign headed into late August and early September, Deeds was shown to be further and further down in the polls with PPP (D) showing Deeds -7%, Rasmussen showing -9%, and SurveyUSA showing Deeds at -12% (see below). However, The Washington Post broke news of a graduate school Master's thesis written by Bob McDonnell calling working women "detrimental" to the traditional family and criticizing the "purging" of religion from schools.[48] Deeds and other Democrats began attacking McDonnell on his thesis[49] and several polls started showing the race tightening up. By mid September, Rasmussen Reports had Deeds behind 48%–46% while the Washington Post had him losing 51%–47% (see below).

However, Deeds' campaign failed to generate much traction and was criticized for going too "negative".[50] Many prominent Democrats, close to the White House, criticized Deeds for allegedly running away from President Obama. With anonymous Obama administration officials bashing Deeds, for his lack of "coordination" with the White House and for straying from the favored campaign strategies of the President and incumbent governor Kaine,[51] Deeds went on to lose the General Election 59%–41% to Bob McDonnell.

Fundraising
Fundraising period Money raised Money spent Cash on hand
September[52] 3.5 Million USD 5.1 Million USD 2.77 Million USD
July/August[53] 3.48 Million USD 5.3 Million USD 4.4 Million USD

Polling
Source Dates administered Creigh Deeds (D) Bob McDonnell (R)
SurveyUSA October 17–19, 2009 40% 59%
Public Policy Polling October 16–19, 2009 40% 52%
Clarus Research October 18–19, 2009 41% 49%
CNU-Pilot-WVEC October 19, 2009 31% 45%
Rasmussen Reports October 12, 2009 43% 50%
Mason-Dixon October 6–8, 2009 40% 48%
Washington Post October 4–7, 2009 44% 53%
Survey USA October 2–4, 2009 43% 54%
Rasmussen Reports September 29, 2009 42% 51%
Survey USA September 26–28, 2009 41% 55%
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2009 43% 48%
Insider Advantage September 23, 2009 44% 48%
Washington Post September 20, 2009 47% 51%
Research 2000 September 14–16, 2009 43% 50%
Rasmussen Reports September 16, 2009 46% 48%
Clarus Research Group September 16, 2009 37% 42%
Survey USA September 3, 2009 42% 54%
Rasmussen Reports September 1, 2009 42% 51%
Public Policy Polling August 28–31, 2009 42% 49%
Washington Post August 16, 2009 40% 47%
Rasmussen Reports August 10, 2009 38% 47%
Research 2000 August 3–5, 2009 43% 51%
Public Policy Polling July 31 August 3, 2009 37% 51%
Survey USA July 27–28, 2009 40% 55%
Rasmussen Reports July 14, 2009 41% 44%
Public Policy Polling June 30 July 2, 2009 43% 49%
Research 2000 June 15–17, 2009 44% 45%
ALR June 10–14, 2009 42% 38%
Rasmussen Reports June 10, 2009 47% 41%

The first poll released after Deeds secured the nomination by Rasmussen Reports had Deeds leading Republic Opponent Bob McDonnell 47%-41%[54] In the same survey, 42% said Deeds is more likely to win while 34% said the same about McDonnell.

A Survey USA poll released in July showed McDonnell beating Deeds 55%–40%. However, this poll was cited as inaccurate by several including Public Policy Polling, another polling firm.[55]

Results

These results were current as of 1:30 PM Eastern on Thursday, November 17, with 100% of precincts reporting.[56] McDonnell received the highest percentage of the vote for governor out of any candidate since 1961.[57] He won the majority of the vote in all age groups and bested Deeds in both the Asian and White demographics by large margins.

Virginia gubernatorial election, 2009
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bob McDonnell 1,163,523 59
Democratic Creigh Deeds 818,909 41
Independent Write-in candidates 2,509 0
Total votes 1,984,934 100
Turnout 1,984,934 of 4,955,755 40
Republican gain from Democratic Swing

Endorsers
gollark: <@227323135932891136> I put up my egg on your trade.
gollark: They're all in quite high demand, but for some bizarre reason people want specific-biome ones.
gollark: Golden wyverns are basically uncommons.
gollark: https://dragcave.net/lineage/hcFO5
gollark: It's from coast.

See also

References
  1. The Washington Post (December 13, 2007). "Creigh Deeds Announces Bid for Governor".
  2. 2009 June Democratic Primary Unofficial Results Archived 2009-06-18 at the Wayback Machine, Virginia.gov. Retrieved on June 10, 2009
  3. "Virginia State Board of Elections, November 2009 General Election unofficial results". Archived from the original on 2009-11-11.
  4. Congress.org. "Sen. R. Creigh Deeds (D-VA 25th District)".
  5. The Washington Post (March 25, 2009). "Virginia Notebook: The Campaign Manager". Retrieved March 28, 2009.
  6. The Washington Post (February 10, 2009). "Deeds Hires Campaign Staff". Retrieved March 28, 2009.
  7. WVEC (January 3, 2008). "House Democrat, Brian Moran, to file for governor". Archived from the original on 2008-08-29. Retrieved 2009-02-14.
  8. The Washington Post (November 29, 2005). "McDonnell Declared Attorney General".
  9. The Richmond Times Dispatch (January 14, 2009). "McDonnell, Deeds, pushing tax credits". Archived from the original on 2009-06-20. Retrieved 2009-02-14.
  10. Government Technology (January 12, 2009). "Virginia Gov. Proposes Legislation to Boost Renewable Energy".
  11. Deeds for Virginia (July 7, 2008). "International Police Union Endorses Deeds". Retrieved March 28, 2009.
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