2006 QV89

2006 QV89 (also written 2006 QV89) is an Apollo near-Earth asteroid roughly 30 meters (100 feet) in diameter. It was discovered on 29 August 2006 when the asteroid was about 0.03 AU (4,500,000 km; 2,800,000 mi) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 150 degrees.

2006 QV89
The region of the sky where astronomers looked for asteroid 2006 QV89.[1]
Discovery[2]
Discovered byCatalina Sky Survey (703)
Discovery date29 August 2006
Designations
2006 QV89
Orbital characteristics[3]
Epoch 27 April 2019 (JD 2458600.5)
Uncertainty parameter 0
Observation arc12.9 years
Aphelion1.4595 AU (218,340,000 km) (Q)
Perihelion0.92454 AU (138,309,000 km) (q)
1.1920 AU (178,320,000 km) (a)
Eccentricity0.22441 (e)
1.30 yr
217.85° (M)
Inclination1.0714° (i)
166.06° (Ω)
236.72° (ω)
Earth MOID10200 km
Jupiter MOID3.9 AU (580,000,000 km)
Physical characteristics
Dimensions
  • ~30 m (100 ft)[4]
  • 23–52 m (CNEOS)
25.3[3]

    Recovery

    The asteroid was recovered on 11 August 2019 by the Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope,[5] extending the observation arc from 10 days to 12 years. 2006 QV89 will make a closest approach to Earth on 27 September 2019 at a distance of 0.0463 AU (6,930,000 km; 4,300,000 mi).[3][6] The August 2019 orbit solution will pass about 600000 km further from Earth than the 2006 orbit solution.[7][lower-alpha 1] It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 11 August 2019.

    Possible Earth impact

    2006 QV89 has a low 1.07° orbital inclination with respect to the Ecliptic plane and an Earth-MOID of only 10200 km.[3] Where Earth will be on a given date was known, but given the relatively old and short observation arc (10 days in 2006) it could not be predicted accurately where the asteroid will be on its orbit.[6] Based on the available data, the Sentry Risk Table showed an estimated 1 in 9100 chance of the asteroid impacting Earth on 9 September 2019.[4] The nominal JPL Horizons 9 September 2019 Earth distance was 0.05 AU (7,500,000 km; 4,600,000 mi) with a 3-sigma uncertainty of ± 10 million km.[8] NEODyS also listed the nominal 9 September 2019 Earth distance as 0.05 AU (7,500,000 km; 4,600,000 mi).[9] The European Space Agency listed the odds of impact at a comparable 1 in 7300 on 9 September 2019.[10]

    A Monte Carlo simulation using Solex 12 with 1000 clones of the asteroid showed that the asteroid's possible positions overlap Earth.[11] The line of variation (LOV) passed over Antarctica and the southern tip of Argentina.[12]

    Impact ruled out

    While the position of the asteroid was too uncertain as of July 2019 to recover it, it was known where it would be if it were on a collision course. Based on non-observations from 4 to 5 July 2019, the impact was ruled out on 16 July 2019, using the Very Large Telescope in Chile.[13]

    The asteroid came to opposition (opposite the Sun in the sky) on 28 July 2019 at an apparent magnitude of ~22.[9]

    Notes
    1. (0.0463 − 0.0422) * 149597870.7 km = 613351 km
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    References
    1. "ESO and ESA confirm that asteroid 2006 QV89 will not hit Earth in 2019". www.eso.org. Retrieved 19 July 2019.
    2. "MPEC 2006-Q58 : 2006 QV89". IAU Minor Planet Center. 30 August 2006. Retrieved 19 March 2019. (K06Q89V)
    3. "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2006 QV89)" (last observation: 2006-09-08; arc: 10 days). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Archived from the original on 18 March 2019. Retrieved 19 March 2019.
    4. "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2006 QV89". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 29 December 2018. Retrieved 19 March 2019.
    5. "Near-Earth asteroid 2006 QV89 not a threat for next century". Science Daily. Archived from the original on 13 August 2019. Retrieved 15 August 2019.
    6. "2006QV89 Close Approaches". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 19 March 2019. Retrieved 19 March 2019.
    7. 2019/2006 orbit comparison (Tony Dunn, 11 August 2019)
    8. Go to JPL Horizons. Table Settings: only need "20. Observer range & range-rate" AND "39. Range & range-rate 3-sigmas".
      RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (Soln.date: 2019-May-30 generates RNG_3sigma = 8948856 for 9 September 2019)
    9. "2006QV89 Ephemerides for July-Sept 2019". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 19 March 2019. Retrieved 19 March 2019.
    10. "esa Risk List". European Space Agency. Archived from the original on 6 June 2019. Retrieved 6 June 2019.
    11. Solex clones (Peter Thomas, 16 March 2019)
    12. Path of risk (Peter Thomas, 15 July 2019)
    13. ESA confirms asteroid will miss Earth in 2019 (European Space Agency, 16 July 2019)
    • SETI Talk with Franck Marchis and Michael Busch
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