D-Wave has teased the ability to perform integer factorization previously, but if you jump to ~10:00 in this presentation they actually appear to outline how they can perform integer factorization using quantum annealing and at ~12:10 they can produce a D-Wave machine (maybe as an NSA special order) that can factor 2n bit number with 2n2 qubits.
- How many qubits does this translate into using their architecture, i.e. is their "chain length" caveat relevant here?
- Is there a simple way to apply this to ECC?
The numbers are seriously fuzzy (annual vs biannual qubit doubling, coherence limits, etc) but if it is simply a matter scaling up their raw qubit counts, then the expected lifetime for key length estimates get flattened out a bit for larger RSA lengths. If ECC is affected in a linear manner, then their expected lifetimes could be half that of the current estimates (2030-2060 vs 2050-2100).
Note: Please do not simply repeat generic complaints about D-Wave here. There are plenty of forums for that discussion, this is not one of them.