Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election

Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament (2017–2020) in the lead up to the 2020 New Zealand general election. Very few polls have been conducted compared to previous electoral cycles.[1] The two regular polls are Television New Zealand (1 News), conducted by Colmar Brunton, and MediaWorks New Zealand (Newshub) Reid Research, with less frequent polls from Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date. The current Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017. The 2020 New Zealand general election was originally supposed to take place on Saturday, 19 September 2020, however, due to the ongoing effects from the COVID-19 outbreak, it was delayed until Saturday, 17 October 2020.

Party vote and key events

Graphical summary

The first graph shows trend lines averaged across all polls for all political parties that are routinely included by polling companies. The second graph shows parties that received less than 10.0% of the party vote in the 2017 election, and are routinely included by polling companies.

Summary of poll results given below from the election result 23 September 2017. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.5).

Summary of poll results for parties that received less than 10.0% of the party vote in the 2017 election, and are routinely included by polling companies. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.5).

Individual polls

For events related to the COVID-19 pandemic in New Zealand, see COVID-19 pandemic in New Zealand and Timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic in New Zealand.

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

The parties shown in the table are the National Party (NAT), Labour Party (LAB), New Zealand First (NZF), Green Party (GRN), ACT, The Opportunities Party (TOP), Māori Party (MRI) and New Conservative (NCP). Other parties have also registered in some polls.

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	Sample size	NAT	LAB	NZF	GRN	ACT	TOP	MRI	NCP	Lead
17 Aug 2020	Jacinda Ardern announces the election is postponed to 17 October 2020, over concerns relating to a recent rise in cases of COVID-19.[2]
25–29 Jul 2020	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,004	32	53	2	5	4.8	0.1	1	1.2	21
Jul 2020	Roy Morgan Research	899	26.5	53.5	1.5	8	6.5	1.5	0.5	–	27
16–24 Jul 2020	Newshub Reid Research	1,000	25.1	60.9	2.0	5.7	3.3	0.4	0.4	0.9	35.8
14 Jul 2020	Todd Muller resigns and Judith Collins is elected as leader of the National Party.
20–24 Jun 2020	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,007	38	50	1.8	6	3.1	0.5	0.9	0.7	12
Jun 2020	Roy Morgan Research	879	27	54.5	1.5	9	5	1.5	1	–	27.5
27 Apr–24 May 2020	Roy Morgan Research	894	26.5	56.5	2.5	7	3.5	1	1.5	–	30
22 May 2020	Todd Muller is elected leader of the National Party, replacing Simon Bridges.
16–20 May 2020	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,003	29	59	2.9	4.7	2.2	0.5	1.2	0.4	30
8–16 May 2020	Newshub Reid Research	1,000	30.6	56.5	2.7	5.5	1.8	0.1	0.9	1.0	25.9
14 May 2020	The nationwide lockdown ends and the 2020 Budget is delivered.
Apr 2020	Roy Morgan Research	–	30.5	55	2.5	7	2.5	–	–	–	24.5
26 Mar 2020	New Zealand commences a nationwide lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Mar 2020	Roy Morgan Research	–	37	42.5	3	11.5	3.5	–	–	–	5.5
8–12 Feb 2020	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,004	46	41	3.3	5	1.7	0.1	1.1	0.8	5
Feb 2020	Roy Morgan Research	–	37	40.5	5	10.5	3.5	–	–	–	3.5
23 Jan – 1 Feb 2020	Newshub Reid Research	1,000	43.3	42.5	3.6	5.6	1.8	0.6	0.9	0.7	0.8
28 Jan 2020	Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces that the election will take place on 19 September 2020.
Jan 2020	Roy Morgan Research	–	40	40	2.5	10.5	3	–	–	–	Tie
23–27 Nov 2019	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,006	46	39	4.3	7	1.6	0.9	0.5	0.8	7
7–11 Nov 2019	YouGov/Stuff	1,005	38	41	8	8	2	1	1	–	3
5–9 Oct 2019	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,008	47	40	4.2	7	0.9	0.5	0.8	0.4	7
2–9 Oct 2019	Newshub Reid Research	1,000	43.9	41.6	4.0	6.3	1.4	1.1	0.7	1	2.3
20–24 Jul 2019	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,003	45	43	3.3	6	1	0.5	1.1	0.8	2
4–8 Jun 2019	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,002	44	42	5	6	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.6	2
30 May – 7 Jun 2019	Newshub Reid Research	1,000	37.4	50.8	2.8	6.2	0.8	0.1	0.5	1	13.4
30 May 2019	The 2019 Budget is delivered.
6–10 Apr 2019	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,009	40	48	4.3	6	0.7	–	0.5	0.4	8
15–23 Mar 2019	Business NZ Reid Research	1,000	41.3	49.6	2.3	3.9	–	–	–	–	8.3
15 Mar 2019	Christchurch shootings targeting mosques kill 51 people and injure a further 49. Terror threat level is raised from low to high.
9–13 Feb 2019	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,006	42	45	3	6	0.9	0.6	1.4	0.2	3
24 Jan – 2 Feb 2019	Newshub Reid Research	1,000	41.6	47.5	2.9	5.1	0.4	0.5	0.8	1.1	5.9
24–28 Nov 2018	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,008	46	43	4	5	0.6	0.3	0.9	–	3
15–19 Oct 2018	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,006	43	45	5	7	0.3	0.3	0.6	0.3	2
2 Aug 2018	Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave.
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,007	45	42	5	6	1.1	0.4	0.9	0.1	3
21 Jun 2018	Ardern gives birth. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister.
17–24 May 2018	Newshub Reid Research	1,000[3]	45.1	42.6	2.4	5.7	0.2	1.6	0.9	1.1	2.5
19–23 May 2018	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,007	45	43	4.2	5	0.7	0.5	0.9	0.2	2
17 May 2018	The 2018 Budget is delivered.
7–11 Apr 2018	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,007	44	43	5	6	0.3	0.4	1.2	0.2	1
8 Apr 2018	Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party.[4]
27 Feb 2018	Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party.[5]
10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2]	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,007	43	48	2.6	5	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.1	5
13 Feb 2018	Bill English announces he will stand down as National leader and resign from Parliament.[6]
18–28 Jan 2018	Newshub Reid Research	1,000	44.5	42.3	3.8	6	0.2	1.4	0.8	0.3	2.2
2–28 Jan 2018	Roy Morgan Research	1,000	39	42.5	6	9	0.5	1.5	1	–	3.5
27 Nov – 10 Dec 2017	Roy Morgan Research	–	40.5	37	8	10	0.5	–	–	–	3.5
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,007	46	39	5	7	0.1	1.2	0.9	–	7
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017	Roy Morgan Research	887	40.5	39.5	5	10	0.5	2	1.5	–	1
26 Oct 2017	Jacinda Ardern is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand.[7]
2–15 Oct 2017	Roy Morgan Research	894	46	31	6.5	11	0.5	2	1.5	–	15
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result[8]	N/A	44.4	36.9	7.2	6.3	0.5	2.4	1.2	0.2	7.6

UMR and Curia polls

These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those that are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	NAT	LAB	NZF	GRN	ACT	Lead
12 Aug 2020	UMR Research	28	52	5.1	5.4	5.9	24
28 Jul 2020	Curia	36	47	3	6	3	11
30 Jun 2020	Curia	34	55	–	–	–	21
26 May – 1 Jun 2020	UMR Research	30	54	5	4	–	24
21–27 April 2020	UMR Research	29	55	6	5	3	26
14 April 2020	Curia	31	49	6	9	5	18
8 April 2020	UMR Research	35	49	5	5	2	14
17 Feb 2020	UMR Research	38	42	6	9	3	4
2 Feb 2020	Curia	39	41	7	7	2	2
23 Jul 2019	UMR Research	38	42	–	9	–	4
9 Nov 2018	UMR Research	37	46	–	–	–	9
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result[8]	44.4	36.9	7.2	6.3	0.5	7.5

Preferred Prime Minister

Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as Prime Minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll.

Individual polls

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	Sample size	Jacinda Ardern	Judith Collins	Winston Peters	James Shaw	David Seymour	Todd Muller	Simon Bridges	Bill English	Lead
25–29 Jul 2020	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,004	54	20	1	0.1	1	0.2	–	–	34
16–24 July 2020	Newshub Reid Research	1,000	62	14.6	–	–	–	–	–	–	47.4
14 July 2020	Todd Muller resigns and Judith Collins is elected as leader of the National Party.
20–24 Jun 2020	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,007	54	2	2	0.1	0.8	13	0.4	0.2	41
26 May – 1 Jun 2020	UMR Research	–	65	–	–	–	–	13	–	–	52
22 May 2020	Todd Muller is elected leader of the National Party.
16–20 May 2020	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,003	63	3	1	0.1	0.4	0.2	5	0.1	58
8–16 May 2020	Newshub Reid Research	1,000	59.5	3.1	–	–	–	–	4.5	–	51
21–27 Apr 2020	UMR Research	–	65	7	3	–	–	–	7	–	58
8–12 Feb 2020	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,004	42	3	3	0.1	0.8	–	11	0.2	31
23 Jan – 1 Feb 2020	Newshub Reid Research	1,000	38.7	–	–	–	–	–	10.6	–	28.1
23–27 Nov 2019	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,006	36	4	3	0.3	0.6	–	10	–	26
5–9 Oct 2019	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,008	38	5	4	0.3	0.4	0.2	9	0.1	29
2–9 Oct 2019	Newshub Reid Research	1,000	38.4	5.2	–	–	–	–	6.7	–	31.7
20–24 Jul 2019	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,003	41	6	2	–	0.4	0.1	6	0.2	35
4–8 Jun 2019	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,002	45	6	5	0.1	0.5	–	5	0.1	39
30 May – 7 Jun 2019	Newshub Reid Research	1,000	49	7.1	–	–	–	–	4.2	–	41.9
6–10 Apr 2019	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,006	51	5	3	0.2	0.2	–	5	0.3	46
9–13 Feb 2019	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,006	44	6	3	0.2	0.1	–	6	0.4	38
24 Jan – 2 Feb 2019	Newshub Reid Research	1,000	41.8	6.2	–	–	–	–	5.0	–	35.6
24–28 Nov 2018	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,008	39	6	4	0.1	0.1	–	7	0.4	32
15–19 Oct 2018	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,006	42	5	4	0.1	–	–	7	1	35
2 Aug 2018	Jacinda Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave.
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,007	40	2	5	0.3	0.2	–	10	0.9	30
21 Jun 2018	Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gives birth. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister.
17–24 May 2018	Newshub Reid Research	1,000[3]	40.2	3.7	4.6	–	–	–	9	4.2	31.2
19–23 May 2018	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,007	41	2	4	0.2	0.1	–	12	0.9	29
7–11 Apr 2018	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,007	37	2	5	–	0.3	–	10	2	27
8 Apr 2018	Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party.[4]
27 Feb 2018	Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party.[5]
10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2]	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,007	41	0.4	4	0.4	0.1	–	1	20	21
18–28 Jan 2018	Newshub Reid Research	1,000[3]	37.9	–	5.7	0.1	–	–	0.5	25.7	12.2
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,007	37	0.7	5	0.4	–	–	0.3	28	9

Government approval rating

Individual polls

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	Sample size	Right direction	Wrong direction	Do not know	Lead
Jul 2020	Roy Morgan Research		71.5	19	9.5	52.5
Jun 2020	Roy Morgan Research		72	18.5	9.5	53.5
May 2020	Roy Morgan Research	900	76	17.5	6.5	58.5
Apr 2020	Roy Morgan Research	900	77	14	9	63
Mar 2020	Roy Morgan Research	900	60.5	25.5	14	35
Feb 2020	Roy Morgan Research	900	59	27	14	32
Jan 2020	Roy Morgan Research	900	66.5	20	12.5	46.5
27 Nov – 10 Dec 2017	Roy Morgan Research		68	18	14	50
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017	1 News Colmar Brunton	1,007	51	26	23	25
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017	Roy Morgan Research	887	66.5	20	13.5	46.5
24 Oct – 1 Nov 2017	Horizon Research	1,068	49	24	28	21
2–15 Oct 2017	Roy Morgan Research	894	58.5	27.5	14	31

Electorate polling

Northland

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	NAT	LAB	NZF		GRN		NCP	ACT
		Matt King	Willow-Jean Prime	Shane Jones	Winston Peters	Darleen Tana Hoff-Nielsen	Peter Hughes	Mel Taylor	Mark Cameron	Craig Nelson
29 Jul – 4 Aug 2020	Q+A Colmar Brunton[9]	46	31	15	N/A	3	N/A	2	1	N/A
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	38.30	21.61	N/A	34.81	N/A	4.51	0.46	N/A	0.30

Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no changes to electorate seats each party holds (ACT retains Epsom, Labour retains Waiariki, etc.) unless there is a specific reason to assume change. It is also assumed the new electorate of Takanini will be won by either Labour or National, and that Botany will be returned to National. Other parties that do not pass the 5% threshold are assumed to not to win an electorate and therefore gain no seats.

Radio New Zealand takes a "poll of polls" average to produce their forecast. The New Zealand Herald bases theirs on a predictive model incorporating poll data as well as past election results and past poll accuracy.[10] Newshub and 1 News produce projections based on their own polls only.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority. This happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but they formed a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.

Party		2017 election result	Radio NZ[11] 5 Jun 2018 poll of polls	Stuff YouGov[12] 7–11 Nov 2019 poll	Roy Morgan[13] July 2020 poll	Newshub Reid Research[14] 16–24 July 2020 poll	1 News Colmar Brunton[15] 25–29 Jul 2020 poll
	National	56	57	47	34	32	41
	Labour	46	54	51	68	77	67
	NZ First	9	0	10	0	0	0
	Green	8	8	10	10	7	6
	ACT	1	1	2	8	4	6
Seats in Parliament		120	120	120	120	120	120
Possible government formation(s)		National–NZ First (65)	Labour coalition (62)	Labour coalition (61)	Labour (68)	Labour (77)	Labour (67)
		Labour–Green–NZ First (63)
Note: Forecasted seats are currently calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

See also

• 2017 New Zealand general election
• Opinion polling for the 2017 New Zealand general election
• Politics of New Zealand

Notes

1. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
2. 75% of respondents were polled before Bill English announced his resignation.

References

1. Michael Appleton (5 November 2018). "Why the drought in New Zealand opinion polling matters". The Spinoff. Archived from the original on 5 November 2018. Retrieved 5 November 2018.
2. Deguara, Brittney (17 August 2020). "Live: Jacinda Ardern delays election to October 17 amid coronavirus outbreak". Stuff. Retrieved 17 August 2020.
3. "TV3 poll results". Reid Research. Archived from the original on 28 May 2018. Retrieved 27 May 2018.
4. "Marama Davidson elected new Greens co-leader". Newshub. 8 April 2018. Archived from the original on 8 April 2018. Retrieved 8 April 2018.
5. "Simon Bridges is National Party's new leader, Paula Bennett remains deputy". The New Zealand Herald. 27 February 2018. Archived from the original on 27 February 2018. Retrieved 27 February 2018.
6. "Former PM Bill English resigns as National Party leader". Newshub. 13 February 2018. Archived from the original on 13 February 2018. Retrieved 13 February 2018.
7. Hurley, Emma (26 October 2017). "As it happened: Jacinda Ardern sworn in as Prime Minister". Newshub. Archived from the original on 27 October 2017. Retrieved 27 October 2017.
8. "Official Count Results – Overall Status". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 10 October 2017. Archived from the original on 7 October 2017. Retrieved 24 October 2017.
9. Cooke, Henry (9 August 2020). "Shane Jones a distant third in Northland poll, meaning NZ First could leave Parliament". Stuff.co.nz. Retrieved 9 August 2020.
10. Harkanwal Singh (28 August 2017). "Herald election forecasts explained". The New Zealand Herald.
11. Colin James (5 June 2018). "No Budget lift for Labour in polls but support for PM still strong". RNZ.
12. Henry Cooke (25 November 2019). "Labour ahead while National dips below 40 in new Stuff poll". Stuff.
13. "PM Jacinda Ardern maintains 'crushing' lead over new National leader Judith Collins". Roy Morgan. 7 August 2020.
14. O'Brien, Tova (26 July 2020). "Newshub-Reid Research Poll: The destruction of National under Judith Collins as party sinks to 25 percent". Newshub.
15. "1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Collins up as preferred PM, but National still in deep trouble". 1 News. TVNZ. 25 June 2020.