Stormy Marmot

Stormy Marmot is a yellow-bellied marmot of the Rocky Mountain region, living in Aurora, Colorado. Every February 2, on Groundhog Day, Stormy makes a prediction for the remainder of winter.


History

Stormy is a yellow-bellied marmot, a member of the squirrel family.[1] Stormy is trotted out once a year to check for his shadow and make a weather prediction.[2][3]

Punxsutawney Phil loyalists have been known to disparage Stormy.[4]

Flatiron Freddy also represents Groundhog Day prognostication in Colorado. He makes his home at Chautauqua Park in Boulder, CO.[5]

Past predictions
YearPrediction
2020 6 more weeks of winter
2019 6 more weeks of winter[6]
2018 Early spring[7]
2017 Early spring[8][9][10]
2016 Early spring[11][12]
2015 Early spring[13][14]
2014 6 more weeks of winter[15][16]
2013 6 more weeks of winter[17][18][19][2]
2012 Early spring[20][21]
2011 6 more weeks of winter[22][23][24]
2010 6 more weeks of winter[25]
2008 6 more weeks of winter
2006 Early spring


Accuracy

Statistical analysis of groundhog predictions show that Stormy Marmot and Poor Richard (a groundhog based in York, Pennsylvania) have the best correlation to observed weather trends. "When Stormy Marmot predicts an early spring, we can expect March to be on average 6 °F warmer, and April to be 2.5 °F warmer. When Poor Richard predicts an early spring, we can expect February to be 4 °F warmer and March to be 8 °F warmer."[26] Dover Doug, a groundhog from Dover, Pennsylvania, was also noted for having a strong correlation between the sign of his shadow and the arrival of spring conditions.[27]

Background

Punxsutawney Phil has been making predictions since the 1880s. However, this method of prognostication did not gain mass notoriety until the release of the 1993 comedy Groundhog Day (film) with Bill Murray and Andie MacDowell. The movie became the 13th highest grossing of the year, with over $70 million at the box office.[28] Over time, the movie became a cult classic and significantly increased awareness and attendance at Groundhog Day events.[29]

gollark: I would be surprised if it was an actually significant difference either way.
gollark: Unfortunately, there is apparently basically no data on long-term reliability of laptops.
gollark: * people with problems
gollark: To be fair, if you look at a support thing like this it'll heavily select for problems.
gollark: It still seems to *work*, but the noise is annoying and I figure relying on it continuing to work with a capacitor blown or something is maybe not smart.

See also


References
  1. "Wild(life) Weather", Curiosity Seldom Pays, Oct 9, 2014
  2. "Your rodent rear is mine, Phil!", Aurora Magazine, Feb 6, 2013
  3. "Groundhog’s Day: Colorado Movers Style", Exodus Moving & Storage, Feb 1, 2012
  4. "Groundhog Day story repeats itself", The Denver Post, Feb 1, 2014
  5. "Happy Groundhog Day, Colorado-Style", The Denver Post, Feb 2, 2013
  6. "Countdown to Groundhog Day", February 2, 2019
  7. "Countdown to Groundhog Day", February 2, 2019
  8. "Did The Groundhog See His Shadow Today", May 17, 2017
  9. "Colorado’s Groundhog Looks to Predict an Early Spring", KTRR Tri 102.5 FM Loveland, Feb 1, 2017
  10. "How Accurate are Groundhog Day Predictions? (2018 Update)", Jeremy Neiman, Jan 31, 2018
  11. "The Groundhog Saw His Shadow, but Will He be Right?", KORD FM 102.7 Richland, Feb 2, 2016
  12. "It’s Groundhog Day!!", Hoosier-Doughty, Feb 2, 2016
  13. "The Eternal Life Disaster", Nathan Gast, Feb 3, 2015
  14. "Happy Groundhog Day 2015", Mrs. Glock's Class, Feb 2, 2015
  15. "Happy Groundhog Day!!!", Mrs. Glock's Class, Feb 4, 2014
  16. "Are You Letting a Groundhog Dictate Strategy?", Brooks Bell Group, Feb 6, 2014
  17. "Happy Groundhog Day, Colorado-Style", The Denver Post, Feb 2, 2013
  18. "Groundhog Day - Feb. 2 - Early Spring or 6 More Weeks of Winter????", Talk Graphics, Feb 2, 2014
  19. "The largest Groundhog Day celebration is held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania", Julie Roberts, Feb 2, 2013
  20. "The largest Groundhog Day celebration is held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania", Julie Roberts, Feb 2, 2013
  21. "Michigan’s Official Groundhog Predicts An Early Spring", WWJ CBS 62 Detroit, Feb 2, 2012
  22. "The largest Groundhog Day celebration is held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania", Julie Roberts, Feb 2, 2013
  23. "Happy Groundhog Day!", Steve Mandich Blog, Feb 2, 2011
  24. "Predicting the weather is tricky business", Crossville Chronicle, Feb 3, 2011
  25. "The largest Groundhog Day celebration is held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania", Julie Roberts, Feb 2, 2013
  26. "How Accurate are Groundhog Day Predictions?", Jeremy Neiman, Jan 27, 2017
  27. "How Accurate are Groundhog Day Predictions? (2018 Update)", Jeremy Neiman, Jan 31, 2018
  28. "1993 Worldwide Grosses". Box Office Mojo. Retrieved February 2, 2019.
  29. Carlson, Peter (February 3, 2004). "His Moment In the Sun". The Washington Post. 23.



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