Muslim population growth

Muslim population growth is the population growth of Muslims worldwide. In 2010-2015, the expected Muslim growth rate was 1.8%.[1] This compares with average world population growth rate of 1.2% per year for the referenced period.[2] As of 2015, it was predicted that the world's Muslim population would grow twice as fast as the overall global population in the following decades.[1] Young median age and high fertility rate of Muslims relative to other religious groups are significant factors behind Islam's population growth;[3][4] As of 2015, the Muslim fertility rate for all 49 Muslim-majority countries is 2.9—well above the global rate—but down from 4.3 in 1990-1995.[5] According to Pew Research, there is a lack of reliable data however religious conversion might have no net impact on the Muslim population as the number of people who convert to Islam is thought to be similar to those who leave Islam.[3][4][6]

World Muslim population by percentage (Pew Research Center, 2014)

By region

World
See also: Islam by country
  • The six fastest-growing religions in the world are estimated to be Islam (1.84%), the Bahá'í Faith (1.70%), Sikhism (1.62%), Jainism (1.57%), Hinduism (1.52%), and Christianity (1.38%), with high birth rates being cited as the major reason.[7]
  • On April 2, 2015, the Pew Research Center published a demographic study about "The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050" with projections of the growth of Islam and reasons why "Islam will grow faster than any other major religion."[1] The study concluded that the global Muslim population is expected to grow at a faster rate than the non-Muslim population due primarily to the young age and high fertility rate of Muslims.[8][9]
Projected global Muslim population (2010-2050):
  1. The number of Muslims world-wide is projected to increase from about 1.6 billion in 2010 to nearly 2.8 billion in 2050. Consequently, Muslims are projected to rise from 23% of the world’s population in 2010 to 30% in 2050.
  2. Muslims are expected to grow twice as fast as the overall global population (the expected annual growth rate of Muslims is projected to be 0.6 p.p. above the rate for the world’s population through 2050)
  3. If current trends continue, by 2050 the number of Muslims will nearly equal the number of Christians around the world.
  4. In Europe, Muslims will make up 10% of the overall population.
  5. India will remain a Hindu-majority country with Hindus making up about 76.3 percent of the total population but it will also have the largest Muslim population in the world by 2050, surpassing Indonesia.
  6. In the United States, Judaism will no longer be the largest non-Christian religion. Muslims will be more numerous in the U.S. than people who identify as Jewish on the basis of religion.
Reasons given for the projected growth
  1. The change in the world's religious is "driven primarily by differences in fertility rates and the size of youth populations among the world's major religions, as well as by people switching faiths."
  2. Fertility rates. The world's total population "is expected to rise to 9.3 billion, a 35% increase" between 2010 and 2050, However, "over that same period, Muslims, who have a comparatively youthful population with high fertility rates, are projected to increase by 73%." Muslim growth benefits from the fertility factor because "globally, Muslims have the highest fertility rate, an average of 3.1 children per woman." This is above a replacement level of 2.1 which is "the minimum typically needed to maintain a stable population."
  3. Size of youth population. "In 2010, more than a quarter of the world's total population (27%) was under the age of 15. But a "higher percentage of Muslims (34%) were younger than 15."
  4. Size of old population. In 2010, "11% of the world's population was at least 60 years old," but only 7% of Muslims were over 60.
  5. Switching. Between 2010 and 2050 a gain of 3,220,000 Muslim adherents is projected to come through switching, mostly found in the Sub Saharan Africa (2.9 million). Also, the Muslim population are projected to add 1.3 million and lose 880,000 via switching, for a net gain of 420,000 between 2015 and 2020.
  6. Migration. Migration is the third reason for the Muslim population growth. For example, 1.8% of the projected growth in Europe is attributed to Muslims migrating in.

Asia

Islam is currently the largest religion in Asia. According to the Pew Research Center, 27.3% of the people living in the Asia-Pacific region in 2030 will be Muslim, up from about a quarter in 2010 (24.8%) and 21.6% in 1990.[3]

India

Islam is the fastest-growing religion in India.[10] Growth rate of Muslims has been consistently higher than the growth rate of Hindus, ever since the census data of independent India has been available. For example, during the 1991-2001 decade, Muslim growth rate was 29.5% (vs 19.9% for Hindus). However, Muslims population growth rate declined to 24.6% during 2001-2011 decade, in keeping with the similar decline in most religious groups of India.[11][12][13][14]

In India regarding attitudes "toward birth control," younger (ages 10–19) Muslim women are less likely to favor it than are older (ages 20–30). Regarding "knowledge of birth control," younger (ages 10–19) Muslim women know less than do older (ages 20–30). "Muslim marriages take place earlier" than other religions, and younger (ages 10–19) Muslim women are more likely to want to have "many children" than are older (ages 20–30).[15]

According to Paul Kurtz, Muslims in India are much more resistant to modern contraceptive measures compared to other Indians and, as a consequence, the fertility rate among non-Muslim women is much lower compared to that of Muslim women.[16][17] Islam is the second-largest religion in India, making up 14.2% of the country's population with about 172 million adherents (2011 census).[18] In 2010, India had the second largest population of Muslims, after Indonesia and ahead of Pakistan.[19]

China

In China, Muslim population growth has been estimated to be as much as 2.7% from 1964–1982, however the Pew Research Center projects a slowing down of Muslim population growth in China due to the harsh treatment towards Muslims in China such as the in Xinjiang and due partly to the fact that many Hui Muslims are ordered by the government to limit themselves to one child in China. [20] By contrast, China's Christian population growth has been estimated at 4.7% based on total population figures from the year 1949. [21] The number of permitted births in China varies between one and three children depending on geographic area.[22] Chinese family planning policy allows minorities, including Muslims, to have up to two children in urban areas, and three to four children in rural areas.

Europe
See also: Islam in Europe

Islam is the fastest-growing religion in Europe.[23][24] According to the Pew Research Center, the Muslim population in Europe (excluding Turkey) was about 30 million in 1990, 44 million in 2010 and is expected to increase to 58 million by 2030; the Muslim share of the population increased from 4.1% in 1990 to 6% in 2010 and is expected to reach 8% in 2030.[3] In recent years, "Europe has experienced a record influx of asylum seekers fleeing from Syria and predominantly Muslim countries" due to various conflicts in its country.[25] And, the wave of Muslim migrants has caused debates about immigration and security policies and raised questions about the current and future number of Muslims in Europe.[25] There were approximately 19 million Muslims in the European Union in 2010 or about (3.8%).[26] Data for the rates of growth of Islam in Europe reveal that the growing number of Muslims is due primarily to immigration.[27] Additionally, average Muslims today are younger and have a higher fertility than other Europeans.[25] Between the mid-2010 and mid-2016, migration was the biggest factor driving the growth of Muslim populations in Europe.[28] Approximately, 2.5 million Muslims came to Europe for reasons other than employment and education.[28] And, more than 1.3 million Muslims received and are expected to receive refugee status, allowing them to stay in Europe.[28]

In 2016, the median age of Muslims throughout Europe was 30.4, 13 years younger than the median age of other Europeans.[28] 50% of all European Muslims are younger than 30, however, only 32% of non-Muslims in Europe were under the age of 30.[28] While the birth rate for Muslims in Europe is expected to decline over the next two decades, it will remain slightly higher than in the non-Muslim population.[3][29][30]

Pew Research Center has provided three different projections (high, medium, zero migration) regarding the expected future migration levels.[31][28] Even in the zero migration scenario, the Muslim population is expected to rise from 3.8% to 4.9% by 2050.[31] In medium and high migration scenario, it assumes the Muslims to reach 11.2% and 14% respectively.[31] On the other hand, the non-Muslim population is expected to decrease in all three scenarios.[31][28]

France

In France there are an estimated 100,000 Muslim converts, compared with about 50,000 in 1986.[32] The population mostly originate from the Maghreb, and, France is home to a third of EU Muslims.[33] As of mid-2016, there are 5.7 million Muslims in France (8.8% of the population) and the Muslim population continues to grow.[28]

Germany

In Germany, there are approximately 5 million Muslims (6.1% of the population), and at least 2.3 million trace their origin to Turkey.[28][33] The “guest worker program” and the domination of Turkish religious authorities have increased German Islam.[33] A report from Pew found "Germany as the top destination for Muslim migrants between 2010 and 2016".[31]

United Kingdom

The United Kingdom is home to 1.5 to 2 million Muslims (3% of the population) and has the highest number of Muslim migrants.[31][33] Most originate from South Asia, particularly Pakistan.[33]

Italy

The presence of Muslims in Italy is fairly new. There are approximately 1 million Muslims (1.5% of the population) and most come from Morocco and Albania.[33]

By denomination

The following table lists historical growth rates (rounded) by schools and branches in Islam as published by the previous two editions of the World Christian Encyclopedia.

Branches/Schools Growth rate (%) in 1982 Growth rate (%) in 2001
Sunni
 - -
Hanafi 2.8 2.1
Shafi 2.9 2.2
Maliki 2.4 2.0
Hanbali 2.7 2.2
Shia - -
Twelver 2.8 2.2
Isma'ili 3.4 2.7
Zaydi 2.8 2.3
Alawites 2.8 4.2
Khariji 2.7 2.1
Wahhabi - 1.4

Conversion

In its 2015 report, the Pew Research Center said that the "bulging youth populations are among the reasons that Muslims are projected to grow faster than the world's overall population".[1] Only 0.3% (3,220,000 people) of the expected Muslim population growth (1,161,780,000) in the period of 2010–2050 would be due to conversions; 99.7% would be due to a high birth rate among Muslims.[3][34][35] Another Pew Research Center study in 2017 projected that only 0.3% (500,000 people) of the Muslim population growth in the period of 2010–2015 will be due to conversions, while 99.7% (152,000,000) will be due natural increase (births minus deaths).[8] According to The New York Times, an estimated 25% of American Muslims are converts.[36] In Britain, around 6,000 people convert to Islam per year and according to a June 2000 article in the British Muslims Monthly Survey the bulk of new Muslim converts in Britain were women.[37] According to The Huffington Post, "observers estimate that as many as 20,000 Americans convert to Islam annually."[38]

According to Pew Research, the number of U.S. converts to Islam is roughly equal to the number of U.S. Muslims who leave the religion.[39] 77% of new converts to Islam are from Christianity, whereas 19% were from non-religion. Whereas, 55% of Muslims who left Islam went to non-religion, and 22% converted to Christianity.[39]

Darren E. Sherkat questioned in Foreign Affairs whether some of the Muslim growth projections are accurate as they do not take into account the increasing number of non-religious Muslims. Quantitative research is lacking, but he believes the European trend mirrors the American: data from the General Social Survey in the United States show that 32 percent of those raised Muslim no longer embrace Islam in adulthood, and 18 percent hold no religious identification.[40]

Studies estimate significantly more people have converted from Islam to Christianity in the 21st century than at any other point in Islamic history.[41] A 2015 study found that up to 10.2 million Muslim converted to Christianity.[42] The increasingly large ex-Muslim communities in the Western world that adhere to no religion have also been well documented.[43]

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See also

References
  1. The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050 (PDF) (Report). Pew Research Center. April 2, 2015.
  2. "World Population (2020 and historical)". Retrieved 12 February 2020.
  3. The Future of the Global Muslim Population (Report). Pew Research Center. 27 January 2011. Retrieved 27 December 2017.
  4. "Why Muslims are the world's fastest-growing religious group". Pew Research Center. 23 April 2015. Retrieved 5 May 2016.
  5. Krithika Varagur (November 14, 2017). "The Muslim Overpopulation Myth That Just Won't Die". The Atlantic. Retrieved April 21, 2020.
  6. Johnson, Todd M.; Grim, Brian J. (25 March 2013). The World's Religions in Figures: An Introduction to International Religious Demography. John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 9781118323038.
  7. "The List: The World's Fastest-Growing Religions". Foreign Policy. 14 May 2007. Retrieved 11 February 2020.
  8. The Changing Global Religious Landscape (Report). Pew Research Center. 5 April 2017.
  9. "A Religious Forecast For 2050: Atheism Is Down, Islam Is Rising". NPR.
  10. "Census of India". Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India. Archived from the original on 15 October 2007. Retrieved 11 February 2020.
  11. "Myth of Muslim growth". The Indian Express. 2 September 2015. Retrieved 5 June 2016.
  12. "Muslim population growth slows". The Hindu. 25 August 2015. ISSN 0971-751X. Retrieved 21 August 2016.
  13. "The Myth Of The Muslim Population Bomb". Tehelka. Archived from the original on 4 June 2016. Retrieved 5 June 2016.
  14. "Five charts that puncture the bogey of Muslim population growth". Scroll.in. Retrieved 6 June 2016.
  15. Shakeel, Ahmad (2003). Muslim Attitude Towards Family Planning. Sarup & Sons. pp. 26, 33, 47, 51.
  16. Guilmoto, Christophe (2005). Fertility transition in South India. SAGE Publishing. ISBN 9780761932925.
  17. Kurtz, Paul (2010). Multi-Secularism: A New Agenda. Transaction Publishers. ISBN 9781412814195.
  18. "By 2030, Muslims will make up 16 pc of India's population". Rediff News. 28 January 2011.
  19. The Global Religious Landscape – Muslims. Pew Research Center (Report). 18 December 2012. Retrieved 29 July 2015.
  20. The Future of the Global Muslim Population - Region: Asia-Pacific (Report). Pew Research Center. 27 January 2011. Retrieved 11 February 2020.
  21. "Global Christianity: Regional Distribution of Christians". Pew Research Center (Report). 19 December 2011. Retrieved 11 August 2013.
  22. "Exemptions in China's 'one-child policy'". 5 November 2010.
  23. Nachmani, Amikam (2010). Europe and its Muslim minorities: aspects of conflict, attempts at accord. Brighton: Sussex Academic. p. 35. ISBN 9781845194000.
  24. Cherribi, Sam (2010). In the house of war: Dutch Islam observed. Oxford: Oxford University Press. p. 33. ISBN 9780199734115.
  25. Europe’s Growing Muslim Population (Report). Pew Research Center. 29 November 2017. Retrieved 11 November 2019.
  26. The Future of the Global Muslim Population - Region: Europe (Report). Pew Research Center. 27 January 2011. Retrieved 11 February 2020.
  27. "Muslims in Europe: Country guide". BBC News. 2005-12-23. Retrieved 2010-04-01.
  28. "5 facts about the Muslim population in Europe". Pew Research Center. 29 November 2017. Retrieved 11 November 2019.
  29. "Factsheet: Turken in Nederland" (PDF). ACB Kenniscentrum (in Dutch). 2011. p. 2. Archived from the original (PDF) on 17 October 2013. Retrieved 11 February 2020.
  30. "Sterke regionale verschillen in vruchtbaarheid naar herkomstgroepering". Statistics Netherlands (in Dutch). 11 July 2012. Retrieved 11 February 2020.
  31. Sandford, Alasdair (30 November 2017). "What proportion of Europe's population is Muslim?". Euronews. Retrieved 11 November 2019.
  32. de la Baume, Maïa (3 February 2013). "More in France Are Turning to Islam, Challenging a Nation's Idea of Itself". The New York Times.
  33. Vaïsse, Justin (8 September 2008). "Muslims in Europe: A short introduction" (PDF). Brookings Institution. Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  34. Samuel P. Huntington (2007). The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. Simon & Schuster. pp. 65–66.
  35. Robinson, B. A. "Religions of the world: Numbers of adherents of major religions, their geographical distribution, date founded, and sacred texts". ReligiousTolerance.org. Retrieved 5 May 2011.
  36. Elliott, Andrea (30 April 2005). "Muslim Converts Face Discrimination". The New York Times. Retrieved 11 February 2020.
  37. "British Muslims Monthly Survey for June 2000, Vol. VIII, No. 6". Women convert.
  38. Sacirbey, Omar (24 August 2011). "Conversion To Islam One Result Of Post-9/11 Curiosity". Huffington Post.
  39. Besheer Mohamed; Elizabeth Pobrebarac Sciupac (26 January 2018). "The share of Americans who leave Islam is offset by those who become Muslim". Pew Research Center. Retrieved 11 February 2020.
  40. Darren E. Sherkat (22 June 2015). "Losing Their Religion: When Muslim Immigrants Leave Islam". Foreign Affairs.
  41. David B. Barrett; George Thomas Kurian; Todd M. Johnson, eds. (February 15, 2001). World Christian Encyclopedia p. 374. Oxford University Press USA. ISBN 0195079639.
  42. Johnstone, Patrick; Miller, Duane Alexander (2015). "Believers in Christ from a Muslim Background: A Global Census". Interdisciplinary Journal of Research on Religion. 11: 8. Retrieved 30 October 2015.
  43. Andrew Anthony (2015). "Losing their religion: The hidden crisis of faith among Britain's young Muslims". The Guardian.
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