2010 AU118

2010 AU118 (also written 2010 AU118) is a potential Amor near-Earth asteroid with an observation arc of only 1.4 days and thus a poorly determined orbit.[2] It was announced on 27 May 2010 based on images taken by the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) on 13–15 January 2010.[1] It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 14 June 2014 as a result of an update to the Sentry software.[4] Another software update restored it to the Sentry Risk Table in 2017. It was again removed from the sentry list on 3 October 2018.

2010 AU118
Discovery[1]
Discovered byWISE (C51)
Discovery date27 May 2010
Designations
Designation
2010 AU118
Orbital characteristics[2]
Epoch 15 January 2010
Uncertainty parameter 9[2]
Observation arc1.4 days
Aphelion3.3±5.6 AU (Q)
Perihelion1.3±0.5 AU (q)
2.3±3.9 AU (a)
Eccentricity0.4±0.7
3.6±9 yr
50°±173° (M)
Inclination42.7°±4.8°
46°±33°
11°±79°
Earth MOID0.3 AU (45,000,000 km)
Physical characteristics
Dimensions~1.9 km[2][3]
Mass9.7×1011 kg (assumed)[3]
16.2[3]

    2010 AU118 was observed 19 times over a very short observation arc of 1.4 days during 13–15 January 2010. On 14 January 2010 the asteroid is estimated to have been 1.8 AU (270,000,000 km; 170,000,000 mi) from Earth with an uncertainty in the asteroids distance of ±300 million km. The asteroid's orbit might not get closer than Mars and/or reach beyond Jupiter.[2]

    WISE estimates the asteroid to be 1,900 meters (6,200 ft) in diameter.[2][3] In 2018, 2010 AU118 was the largest object listed on the Sentry Risk Table. It has a poorly constrained orbit with an uncertainty parameter of 9.[2] Virtual clones of the asteroid that fit the uncertainty region in the known trajectory, showed a 1 in 770 million chance that the asteroid could impact the Earth on 2020 October 20.[3] With a Palermo Technical Scale of −3.14,[3] the odds of an impact by 2010 AU118 in 2020 were about 1400 times less[5] than the background hazard level of Earth impacts, which is defined as the average risk posed by objects of the same size or larger over the years until the date of the potential impact.[6] NEODyS lists the nominal 20 October 2020 Earth distance as 3 AU (450,000,000 km; 280,000,000 mi).[7]

    References
    1. "MPEC 2010-K65 : 2010 AU118". IAU Minor Planet Center. 27 May 2010. Retrieved 17 March 2012. (K10AB8U)
    2. "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2010 AU118)" (last observation: 2010-01-15; arc: 2 days). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Archived from the original on 13 December 2012. Retrieved 17 March 2012.
    3. "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2010 AU118". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 3 April 2014. Retrieved 27 June 2014.
    4. "Date/Time Removed". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. 25 December 2016. Archived from the original on 25 December 2016.CS1 maint: BOT: original-url status unknown (link)
    5. Math: 103.14 = 1380
    6. "The Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. 31 August 2005. Retrieved 14 October 2011.
    7. "2010AU118 Ephemerides for 20 October 2020". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Retrieved 23 January 2018.
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