2008 Bavarian state election

The 2008 Bavarian state election was held on 28 September 2008 to elect the members of the Landtag of Bavaria. The result was a historic defeat for the Christian Social Union (CSU), which had governed with a majority uninterrupted since 1962, and had won over 60% of the vote in the 2003 election. Despite polling suggesting that the party would retain its majority with losses, it suffered a 17% swing and came up two seats short of a majority, its worst result since 1954. Minister-President and CSU leader Günther Beckstein subsequently resigned from both posts, and the Landtag elected Horst Seehofer as his successor after the CSU and Free Democratic Party (FDP) came to a coalition agreement.

2008 Bavarian state election

28 September 2008
All 187 seats in the Landtag of Bavaria 94 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	10,612,275 (58.1%) 1.0%
First party Second party Third party   Leader Günther Beckstein Franz Maget Hubert Aiwanger Party CSU SPD FW Last election 124 seats, 60.7% 41 seats, 19.6% 0 seats, 4.0% Seats won 92 39 21 Seat change 32 2 21 Popular vote 4,603,960 1,972,437 1,085,896 Percentage 43.4% 18.6% 10.2% Swing 17.3% 1.0% 6.2%   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Sepp Daxenberger Martin Zeil Party Green FDP Last election 15 seats, 7.7% 0 seats, 2.6% Seats won 19 16 Seat change 4 16 Popular vote 999,111 847,227 Percentage 9.4% 8.0% Swing 1.7% 5.4%
Minister-President before election Günther Beckstein CSU Elected Minister-President Horst Seehofer CSU

The Free Voters of Bavaria entered the Landtag for the first time with 10% of the vote; the FDP also won seats for the first time in 14 years. The Left competed in its first Bavarian election, recording a modest result of 4.3%, but failing to win any seats.

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 15th Landtag of Bavaria.

Name			Ideology	Leader(s)	2003 result
					Votes (%)	Seats
	CSU	Christian Social Union in Bavaria Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern	Christian democracy	Günther Beckstein	60.7%	124 / 180
	SPD	Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands	Social democracy	Franz Maget	19.6%	41 / 180
	Grüne	Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen	Green politics	Sepp Daxenberger	7.7%	15 / 180

Opinion polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CSU	SPD	Grüne	FW	FDP	Linke	ÖDP	Others	Lead
2008 state election	28 Sep 2008	–	43.4	18.6	9.4	10.2	8.0	4.3	2.0	4.1[lower-alpha 1]	24.8
GMS	20–21 Sep 2008	1,010	48	19	10	7	7	4	1	4[lower-alpha 2]	29
Emnid	10–18 Sep 2008	1,010	49	20	8	7	8	5	–	3	29
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	16–18 Sep 2008	1,105	47	20	8	8	9	4	–	4	27
Infratest dimap	15–17 Sep 2008	1,000	47	21	9	7	8	4	–	4	26
Forsa	8–12 Sep 2008	1,101	50	19	9	8	6	4	–	4	31
GMS	6–8 Sep 2008	1,006	49	19	11	5	7	4	2	3[lower-alpha 3]	30
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	28–30 Jul 2008	1,038	50	20	9	7	6	4	–	4	30
Infratest dimap	24–28 Jul 2008	1,000	48	22	9	5	8	4	–	4	26
Emnid	23 Jun–17 Jul 2008	~500	51	19	9	–	7	5	–	9[lower-alpha 4]	32
TNS Infratest	3–8 Jul 2008	1,000	48	21	11	5	8	4	–	3	27
GMS	8–9 Jul 2008	1,006	50	20	8	4	5	5	2	6[lower-alpha 5]	30
GMS	2–6 Jun 2008	1,009	49	20	9	5	5	5	2	5[lower-alpha 6]	29
Infratest dimap	28–30 Apr 2008	1,000	48	23	10	5	6	4	–	4	25
mifm München	21–23 Apr 2008	1,000	44	20	11	9	9	3	–	4	24
mifm München	4–14 Apr 2008	1,001	40	19	12	11	11	4	–	3	21
GMS	8–14 Apr 2008	1,010	51	20	10	4	6	4	1	4	31
GMS	31 Mar–6 Apr 2008	1,512	50	21	10	4	5	4	–	6	29
Emnid	13–27 Feb 2008	~500	51	19	11	3	6	4	–	6	32
mifm München	31 Jan–7 Feb 2008	1,000	50	20	11	4	7	3	–	5	30
Infratest dimap	3–7 Jan 2008	1,000	52	21	10	2	6	3	–	6	31
Emnid	10 Dec 2007–2 Jan 2008	800	54	20	10	–	6	4	–	6	34
GMS	2–3 Jan 2008	1,004	56	21	9	3	4	3	1	3[lower-alpha 7]	34
GMS	12–17 Dec 2007	1,010	55	20	9	4	5	3	–	4	35
Forsa	5–27 Nov 2007	1,002	56	17	9	3	4	4	–	7	39
mifm München	29 Oct–7 Nov 2007	1,000	53.8	19.1	9.9	1.7	7	3.2	–	5.3	34.7
GMS	21–22 Oct 2007	1,001	54	23	10	3	4	3	1	2[lower-alpha 8]	31
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	24–26 Sep 2007	1,143	56	22	9	4	4	3	–	2	34
mifm München	7–15 Sep 2007	1,003	53	17	10	3	7	3	1.7	4.9[lower-alpha 9]	36
Forsa	29 Aug–17 Sep 2007	1,003	57	19	9	2	4	3	–	6	38
Forsa	28–30 Jul 2007	1,002	58	17	9	3	4	3	–	6	41
TNS Infratest	17–19 Jul 2007	1,000	54	22	11	–	5	3	–	5	32
dimap	13–19 Jul 2007	1,000	58	18	11	–	4	4	–	5	40
GMS	13–18 Jun 2007	1,010	54	18	9	4	8	3	–	4	36
Forsa	4–14 Jun 2007	1,001	56	16	9	3	6	3	–	7	40
Forsa	25 Apr–8 May 2007	1,036	56	17	9	3	6	3	–	6	39
Forsa	19 Mar–2 Apr 2007	1,012	54	20	9	3	4	3	–	7	34
Infratest dimap	22–25 Mar 2007	1,002	53	23	10	2	6	2	–	4	30
GMS	5–8 Mar 2007	1,012	53	20	9	4	7	2	1	4[lower-alpha 10]	33
Forsa	15–26 Feb 2007	1,002	53	19	9	3	6	3	–	7	34
GMS	22–25 Jan 2007	1,011	52	22	9	4	7	2	2	2[lower-alpha 11]	30
Infratest dimap	19–20 Jan 2007	1,000	52	24	9	–	7	–	–	8	28
Infratest dimap	15 Jan 2007	1,000	50	24	11	–	8	–	–	7	26
Forsa	10–12 Jan 2007	1,007	49	22	9	3	6	4	–	7	27
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	12–13 Jan 2007	1,142	45	27	10	–	9	–	–	9	18
Infratest dimap	3–4 Jan 2007	1,000	54	22	9	–	7	–	–	8	32
Forsa	27–29 Dec 2006	1,009	54	18	9	3	5	4	–	7	36
GMS	18–23 Dec 2006	1,006	54	20	10	2	8	2	2	2[lower-alpha 12]	34
Forsa	24 Nov–5 Dec 2006	1,026	56	17	10	2	5	4	–	6	39
Forsa	23 Oct–7 Nov 2006	1,004	54	19	9	2	7	3	–	6	35
GMS	6–8 Oct 2006	1,002	53	22	8	3	8	3	1	2[lower-alpha 13]	31
Forsa	18 Sep–4 Oct 2006	1,006	54	18	9	2	8	3	–	6	36
Infratest dimap	28 Sep–1 Oct 2006	1,000	49	24	10	2	8	1	–	6	25
Forsa	20 Aug–5 Sep 2006	1,005	58	16	10	–	6	3	–	7	42
Forsa	3–12 Jul 2006	1,004	56	16	10	3	6	4	–	5	40
GMS	9–14 Jun 2006	1,002	54	18	11	2.0	8	2.5	–	4.5	36
Forsa	12–17 May 2006	1,002	52	18	9	3	10	3	–	5	34
Emnid	20 Apr–9 May 2006	1,000	53	23	9	–	5	–	–	10	30
Forsa	22–24 Feb 2006	1,003	52	21	9	4	6	3	–	5	31
Infratest dimap	12–15 Jan 2006	1,000	53	22	10	2	7	2[lower-alpha 14]	–	4	31
Forsa	4–11 Jan 2006	1,114	49	24	10	–	6	3[lower-alpha 15]	–	8[lower-alpha 16]	25
Peinelt	17 Nov–9 Dec 2005	1,067	45.9	21.5	8.6	4.2	11.8	–	–	8.0[lower-alpha 17]	24.4
GMS	17–21 Dec 2005	1,001	56	22	7	4	4	2	1	4[lower-alpha 18]	34
Infratest dimap	15–16 Nov 2005	1,000	45	24	10	–	11	3	–	7	21
Forsa	4–7 Nov 2005	1,001	49	21	9	–	9	4	–	8[lower-alpha 19]	28
Infratest dimap	21–24 Jul 2005	1,000	59	18	9	–	4	4	–	6	41
Infratest dimap	5–9 Jan 2005	1,000	56	22	10	–	5	–	–	7	34
Infratest dimap	21–25 Jul 2004	1,000	58	17	12	–	5	–	–	8	41
GMS	17–20 Mar 2004	1,009	61.0	19.0	10.0	1.5	3.0	0.5	2.0	3.0[lower-alpha 20]	42
Infratest dimap	2–5 Jan 2004	1,000	62	19	9	–	3	–	–	7	43
2003 state election	21 Sep 2003	–	60.7	19.6	7.7	4.0	2.6	–	2.0	3.4[lower-alpha 21]	41.1

Election result

Summary of the 28 September 2008 election results for the Landtag of Bavaria

Party		Votes	%	+/-	Seats	+/-	Seats %
	Christian Social Union (CSU)	4,603,960	43.4	17.3	92	32	49.2
	Social Democratic Party (SPD)	1,972,437	18.6	1.0	39	2	20.9
	Free Voters of Bavaria (FW)	1,085,896	10.2	6.2	21	21	11.5
	Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne)	999,111	9.4	1.7	19	4	10.2
	Free Democratic Party (FDP)	847,227	8.0	5.4	16	16	8.6
	The Left (Linke)	461,755	4.3	New	0	New	0
	Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP)	212,200	2.0	0.0	0	±0	0
	The Republicans (REP)	146,073	1.4	0.9	0	±0	0
	National Democratic Party (NPD)	123,399	1.2	1.2	0	±0	0
	Bavaria Party (BP)	116,464	1.1	0.3	0	±0	0
	Pensioners' Party (RRP)	19,760	0.2	New	0	New	0
	The Violets (Violetten)	15,465	0.1	New	0	New	0
	Citizens' Bloc (BB)	7,306	0.1	0.0	0	±0	0
	Civil Rights Movement Solidarity (BüSo)	1,222	0.0	0.1	0	±0	0
Total		10,612,275	100.0		187	7
Voter turnout			58.1	1.0

Popular Vote CSU   43.38% SPD   18.59% FW   10.23% B'90/GRÜNE   9.41% FDP   7.98% DIE LINKE   4.35% Other   6.06%

Landtag seats CSU   49.19% SPD   20.86% FW   11.23% B'90/GRÜNE   10.16% DFP   8.56%

See also

• 2003 Bavaria state election

Notes

1. 1.4% REP, 2.7% Other
2. 1% Right-wing parties, 3% Other
3. 1% Right-wing parties, 2% Other
4. 2% Right-wing parties, 7% Other
5. 2% Right-wing parties, 4% Other
6. 2% Right-wing parties, 3% Other
7. 1% Right-wing parties, 2% Other
8. 1% Right-wing parties, 1% Other
9. 2.3% REP, 1.1% BP, 1.5% Other
10. 1% Right-wing parties, 3% Other
11. 1% Right-wing parties, 1% Other
12. 1% Right-wing parties, 1% Other
13. 1% Right-wing parties, 1% Other
14. WASG
15. WASG
16. 3% Right-wing parties, 5% Other
17. 4.3% REP, 3.7% Other
18. 2% Right-wing parties, 2% Other
19. 3% Right-wing parties, 5% Other
20. 1.0% REP, 2.0% Other
21. 2.2% REP, 1.2% Other

References

External links

• Official results (in German)
• Article by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (in German)