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Microsoft has announced Windows 7 will no longer be receiving updates after January 14, 2020: Here.

I hate windows 10's forced updates and telemetry so I have always stuck with Windows 7, but it may be as good as dead after the lack of security updates.

Linus Tech Tips did a great video covering this issue: Here.

With this massive change I was wondering if anyone knew of the real impact this would have. Can third-party Anti-virus successfully substitute Windows 7 security updates after they are discontinued?

Right now I use Malwarebytes and AVG, and I feel as though this would be enough but this is something you have to be sure about.

With Windows Vista I feel as though this has already been studied but, I am not clever enough to google the right words. So I have turned to the amazing community here for solid answers.

Is Windows 7 being left 4 dead, or is Y2K coming back for round 2?

schroeder
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TritiumCat
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    Without knowing your requirements, it's worth mentioning that if you _really_ hate Windows 10, there are at least two other desktop OSes worth considering. Many developers actually consider one of the others to be superior for many tasks. Your mileage will vary depending on your use case. If you do have requirements that mandate Windows, you can at least become familiar with the Privacy and Diagnostics pages of the Settings app to disable most information sharing and telemetry. – GrandOpener Mar 12 '19 at 14:45
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    the only way I know of to safely run a machine that runs an operating system that is end-of-life'd (i.e. no more updates/patches/bug-fixes)... is to run the machine on an air-gapped network or no network. and be very careful what files you transfer to the machine (files are transferred to the machine via physical media transfer). – Trevor Boyd Smith Mar 12 '19 at 17:23
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    You may find that another operating system besides _Microsoft Windows_ is more to your liking. Perhaps consider doing some research in this area if _Windows 10_ is not up your street. – starbeamrainbowlabs Mar 12 '19 at 19:24
  • I was stuck on windows 7 for a long time, the 3 things that got me past it to windows 10: Getting classic shell set up correctly, realizing windows 10 is not the dumpster fire that is Windows 8/8.1, and proper bluetooth audio support – chiliNUT Mar 12 '19 at 21:04
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    I have Windows 10 on 2 of my 3 devices. I have to keep using 'Destroy Windows Spying (DWS)' to prevent updates and disable telemetry. Every time Windows 10 updates it reinstalled all of its bloatware and manages to reestablish telemetry. I have dug very deep into windows 10 and found at least over a dozen processes that solely collect data at random times. A few of these processes send the data home (probably Microsoft servers, could be a VPN). The amount of data it sends is alarming and the fight with Windows 10 "updates" was not really worth it. But now I have no choice. Maybe linux Mint. – TritiumCat Mar 13 '19 at 00:40
  • @TritiumCat: Honestly I hate it too but at some point you might find that there are bigger fires to fight in life than this one, and it might just be one of those battles to surrender to. When every Windows 10 device in the *world* is sending back telemetry, including in businesses, you have to realize there are people out there with more worries (and clout) with Microsoft than you, so if something were to seriously go wrong with the data, they would have bigger problems on their hands than you. – user541686 Mar 13 '19 at 06:10
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    @Mehrdad It's the principle of the thing. Somebody's snooping on you, for something you've _paid_ for. – wizzwizz4 Mar 13 '19 at 07:40
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    @wizzwizz4: If the *payment part* is the part that you take issue with on principle, then you could think of it as your payment having gone toward the OS, and your going toward the updates. (After all I think I could sanely say that a one-time payment of this magnitude can't really cover perpetual costs.) However if you'd still ditch Windows on the mere principle of snooping being wrong even *if* it was free, then I salute you... – user541686 Mar 13 '19 at 08:04
  • @Mehrdad Considering the Microsoft tax, it is for all intents and purposes "free"; that is to say, I do not pay extra money to get a copy of Windows, since I'm paying for one anyway. As far as most people are concerned, they're paying for a _computer_ and it's spying on them. – wizzwizz4 Mar 13 '19 at 18:14
  • But if— … we should take this to chat. Know of a suitable room? – wizzwizz4 Mar 13 '19 at 18:14
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    Check your Windows 7 box for Microsoft telemetry. IIRC there was an update to Windows 7 that added Windows 10 style telemetrics. If you are fully updated on Windows 7, you may already have Microsoft telemetrics on your system, see https://mspoweruser.com/microsoft-makes-telemetry-updates-for-windows-7-and-8-1-critical-updates/ – Walter Mar 14 '19 at 00:41
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    @TritiumCat, there is already an answer suggesting that, but consider Win 10 LTSC as a compromise. It is Win 10 as it should be. Most importantly in this context, it has regular security patches but no forced 'feature updates', and long-term support. Still have to put up with its ugly interface, though. – Zeus Mar 14 '19 at 02:25
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    @wizzwizz4: Isn't [The DMZ](https://chat.stackexchange.com/rooms/151/the-dmz) the usual room to go to? – user21820 Mar 14 '19 at 10:14

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Nope.

After Microsoft discontinue security updates for a version of Windows there is not a safe way to run that version of Windows.

Some people will promote Virtual Patching where you have a external firewall scan all your traffic looking for patterns of traffic that look malicious. I would not trust that, and it requires a seperate non-vulnerable computer.

A number of vulnerabilities patched by Microsoft are not the sort that anti-virus are good at catching. In the most recent example Google announced a Chrome Bug plus Windows 7 bug that caused visiting a site to remotely execute arbitrary code, this was being used in the wild. After end-of-life Microsoft will not patch this type of bug. (https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-chrome-zero-day-was-used-together-with-a-windows-7-zero-day/)

David Waters
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    Damn, that was not the answer I was hoping for, but it's better to know the truth then live in blissful ignorance. I better begin making preparations for this. Perhaps I will host a Jedi style funeral where I dban my hard drive and weep softly at the Windows 10 install screen. Or maybe I will invent windows 9 and save the galaxy from the Sith Lords at Microshaft. Who knows! – TritiumCat Mar 12 '19 at 04:22
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    @TritiumCat I mean, Windows 10 is overall better than 7 so it really shouldn't be an issue. – James T Mar 12 '19 at 09:06
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    @TritiumCat The forced updates aren't much different from what was used since Vista (and overall, updates are much less frequent). If you set the telemetry to Basic level (in Settings, no need for group policies etc.), the data being sent isn't much different from what was already sent in Windows XP. In the end, it's all about security and reliability - reporting crashes, hardware issues etc. Apart from the slippery slope arguments, there's little point in fearing the changes; the issues have been blown way out of proportion, and it's not like MS is the pioneer of these things either :) – Luaan Mar 12 '19 at 09:12
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    @Luaan I can't wait till the "fun to hate Win 10" of the internet goes away, it's seriously over hyped how bad Win 10 is – Brian Leishman Mar 12 '19 at 12:49
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    "there is not a safe way to run that version of Windows", not true. It's still safe to run outdated versions of Windows offline, without being connected to the Internet. – mbomb007 Mar 12 '19 at 13:57
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    @JamesTrotter I beg to differ. I miss the Windows 7 interface. The Control Panel replacements are clunky and much more limited; you often need to revert back to the old interface anyway, which is harder to access now. Accessing the shut down menu via keyboard is now much more difficult. The privacy settings are configured to send everything by default, so you have to hunt them all down. And the most annoying thing: **forced reboots even if your programs are running**, possibly making you lose work. The bottom line is that Windows 10 was not designed with serving the user as the priority. – jpmc26 Mar 12 '19 at 16:33
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    @mbomb007 Depends on the threat model. – jpmc26 Mar 12 '19 at 16:35
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    @jpmc26 `Alt + F4` when no windows are in focus. If Windows are in focus then `Win + D` or just click on some empty space in your taskbar. It has literally been YEARS since I've used the Start menu to shut down my machine. – MonkeyZeus Mar 12 '19 at 17:19
  • @MonkeyZeus Yes, I use that. I am, however, not fond of the risk of accidentally closing a window since it uses the exact same shortcut when I wish to Hibernate instead of Shut Down. If they were actually interested in improving the user experience, they'd have made it possible to do them via the Search or giving it a dedicated shortcut. – jpmc26 Mar 12 '19 at 17:30
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    @jpmc26 You definitely sound like a power user. The idea to Sleep, Shut Down, or Hibernate via search is brilliant. I would imagine you could make a `.bat` or PowerShell script to achieve such functionality. – MonkeyZeus Mar 12 '19 at 19:40
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    @MonkeyZeus Sure, I could, but that doesn't change the fact that Windows 10 is annoying and made no real usability improvements. I also consider adding more system functions to search *obvious* and am flabbergasted that 8 crippled the search and that 10 added a bunch of garbage like web search to it without adding basic things like those. – jpmc26 Mar 12 '19 at 19:45
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    @jpmc26 Just be thankful that they still let you turn all of that off. One day I think they will hobble Windows' customization capabilities then I might jump into your boat but for now it's manageable. – MonkeyZeus Mar 12 '19 at 19:53
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    @jpmc26 `Win + X`, `U` brings you to a menu where you can Hibernate, Shut down, etc with a single keypress. Signing out is just `Win + X`, `UI`. I love that damn thing so much I ended up backporting it to Windows 7 with AutoHotKey. – James Mar 13 '19 at 06:16
  • @SebastiaanvandenBroek that is 100% what is happening here, i just didn't want to address is directly thus paying any real attention to such school-yard-grade signalling... – James T Mar 13 '19 at 10:20
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    @jpmc26 I can't disagree that there are aspects of Win10 that are worse than 7 to me, but to the over-all consumer-base it is better. If its easier for my Granddad to use then I'm happy, and there are no real detriments to me. Sure, having to search the old control panel everytime I want to do something is a minor inconvenience.. Sure, the default settings are sucky.. but ulimately 99% of windows users aren't "power users" like you will find in a forum such as this. – James T Mar 13 '19 at 10:23
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    This discussion about which version of Windows is better is both off-topic and pointless. – Philipp Mar 13 '19 at 10:28
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    @jpmc26 Do the `shutdown -s` / `shutdown -h` commands no longer work for Shutdown and Hibernate via Search? – Chronocidal Mar 13 '19 at 10:30
  • @Chronocidal I don't know if they work via search but it is trivial to hit Win+R and type them in there. – Pyritie Mar 13 '19 at 15:26
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    @mbomb007 offline is not enough: you'd also need to stop using USB, Bluetooth, etc. – Cœur Mar 13 '19 at 16:04
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    @jpmc26 just tell cortana to shut down the PC, and she'll do it. – Andy Mar 13 '19 at 18:21
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No, anti-malware is not a replacement for security updates.

Neil Matz summarized the Fortinet's Q2 Global Threat Landscape report for 2017, noticing:

WannaCry and NotPetya targeted a vulnerability that had been patched by Microsoft a few months earlier.

But it’s not just these high-profile attacks that target recent vulnerabilities that are the problem. During Q2, 90% of organizations recorded exploits against vulnerabilities that were three or more years old. And 60% of firms experienced successful attacks targeting devices for which a patch had been available for ten or more years!

You hate Windows 10's forced updates and telemetry, but there are methods to change their operation. For example, using gpedit.msc on Professional editions you can:

  • Computer Configuration > Administrative Templates > Windows Components > Windows Update > Configure Automatic Updates. It's still possible to choose 2 = Notify before downloading and installing any updates.

  • It's possible to get the feature updates only after they are actually ready (i.e. tested and complained by the end users). ... > Windows Components > Windows Update > Windows Update for Business > Select when Preview Builds and Feature Updates are received:

    When Selecting Semi-Annual Channel (Targeted) or Semi-Annual Channel:

    • You can defer receiving Feature Updates for up to 365 days.
  • Computer Configuration > Administrative Templates > Windows Components > Data Collection and Preview Builds. Allow Telemetry = 0 Security sends only a minimal amount of data to Microsoft. Too much? You can disable the DiagTrack: Connected User Experiences and Telemetry service.

Windows 10 was the first Windows with cumulative updates, which actually means less updates. Since October 2016 there has been no difference as Microsoft stopped individual updates for every supported Windows and currently all updates are in rollup model. (You can read more about servicing differences).

Esa Jokinen
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    Your answer is too generic. That does not work in W10Home, for example. Also, all the W10 part is not relevant to the topic. Also, cumulative updates are kind of a service pack. Difference is, they mostly break things instead of fixing them. – Overmind Mar 12 '19 at 11:12
  • I agree that part isn't completely on-topic on this site, but it tries to help OP with the (XY) problem. This kind of myths should be challenged. There's still too many out there thinking XP is the best Windows, for similar reasons. – Esa Jokinen Mar 12 '19 at 16:12
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    Home doesn't have gpedit.msc. But you are exactly right - sticking with old versions is really a very bad security practice. I have adjusted to Win10 with all the settings you suggest and find my terrible soon to be replaced Win7 machine at work quite troublesome now. – razethestray Mar 12 '19 at 18:48
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    Just because you can choose something in gpedit doesn't mean the system will honor it. (Have you used Windows 10?) – user541686 Mar 13 '19 at 06:04
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    @Esa Jokinen XP got a community security patch. Statistically, if you take the last 2 years of 10,7 and XP, XP is by no means worse than 10 when it comes to security. There are common CVEs found but there are a lot more 10-specific. Also, many CVEs are easy to patch by 3rd parties on XP but not possible to be community patched in 10. I currently use all 3 OSes in online environment and hands down 10 has the most problems of security and specially functionality. 10 needs a redux like Vista had and we got the good 7. – Overmind Mar 13 '19 at 06:23
  • @Overmind: That's very interesting. Could you provide some sources for the actively maintained XP community security patch and the statistical analysis, please. – Esa Jokinen Mar 13 '19 at 07:41
  • Old article here: https://www.pcworld.com/article/2599290/enthusiast-developer-keeps-windows-xp-alive-with-unofficial-service-pack-4.html ; Source of unofficial update pack called SP4: http://ryanvm.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10321&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0 – Overmind Mar 13 '19 at 07:55
  • I'm glad this solves a lot of the problems that people are complaining about in the main comments, but in my experience, every time I elect to make an update, all of these options wind up going back to the defaults, causing an overwhelming amount of work every time I do update, making me want to update even less. – Erin B Mar 13 '19 at 14:30
  • @Mehrdad I use Windows 10 configured with Group Policy to prevent automatic updates and reboots. I still let Windows check for updates, so every once in a while it notifies me that there are updates (but doesn't install automatically, or force me to) and then I install them when I feel like it. – camerondm9 Mar 14 '19 at 03:15
  • @razethestray Home can still configure the registry settings though. Microsoft has instructions available [here](https://support.microsoft.com/en-ca/help/328010/how-to-configure-automatic-updates-by-using-group-policy-or-registry-s), or you can import a copy of [my settings](https://pastebin.com/zVckJJe6). – camerondm9 Mar 14 '19 at 03:19
  • @camerondm9: Try not letting the system do that and see if it's really listening to GP. – user541686 Mar 14 '19 at 03:19
  • @Mehrdad As requested, I've let a Windows 10 system sit for 3 days now. It was set to download updates but not install automatically, and hadn't been updated recently. It reminds me once a day (with a modal dialog) that there are important updates ready to install, but it has not installed the updates... It would appear that Windows 10 listens to at least that part of GP. – camerondm9 Mar 17 '19 at 19:51
  • @camerondm9: I never requested this, but if you're trying to experiment, 3 days is nowhere near enough. Try it 30-60 days. There's a process that turns updates back on if they're turned off too long. – user541686 Mar 17 '19 at 20:10
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There is no realistic substitute for software patches.

There are additional security measures one can take, but all of them have their limitations.

  • Antiviruses will not do a thing against attacks that do not write to disk. If an attacker hijacks a legitimate process in memory, it's open-season on your data. These kinds of attacks are becoming more and more common.

  • Firewalls and IDSes (of either the software and hardware variety) can catch malicious traffic that matches a signature. The slightest bit of customisation will defeat this.

  • All software measures rely on your core operating system being trustworthy. A core OS with security holes like Swiss cheese cannot be trusted.

  • Hardware measures rely on you having a spare machine with software that has a supported OS anyway.

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Windows 7 was released 10 years ago. Wanting to use win 7 now is the same as wanting to use win xp in 2013 (the year windows 8.1 was released), or wanting to use windows 95 in 2004. There were such guys in that era too, and we made fun of them at the time1. Technology is changing, you should learn to adapt if you want to succeed in this field. If you want to schedule your own update times or prevent some updates to install completely you can spend some more bucks for the pro version of windows 10, regarding telemetry I have bad news for you: there's also in windows 7, and the quantity of information can't be configured as in windows 10 so you keep the defaults, whether you like that or not.

To answer your question: there is no way an external small software house can patch vulnerabilities of a closed source operating system with the same efficacy as the operating system developer, the best they can do is work around known bugs by blocking features or scanning your activity for malicious patterns. This will slow your computer, and has bigger privacy concerns that the telemetry Microsoft gathers2. Also, as someone already said, there are vulnerabilities which can't be worked around outside of the operating system, so you'll keep them all.

Relying on external protection for your outdated OS may lure you into a false sense of security and may work without issues for years (it is not like the operating system becomes insecure the exact day its support ends) but would require you to keep yourself informed on new security issues, whether they are severe, whether they affect your OS, whether they will stay unpatched and eventually determine whether you should finally leave your OS at one point. If you can afford that much time managing your installed OS just for privacy concerns you can definitely use it to install Linux and solve the issues you may encounter to the lack of certain apps in your usual workflow, it will pay off more in the future.

Another thing that has not been said in other answers and I think affects security of an old operating system is that external app developers will eventually stop supporting it and releasing new version for it, so you may end up having old and buggy versions of apps such as browsers, which may be another surface of attack for exploiters.

TLDR, only hassle comes with staying with Windows 7. The problems you thought Windows 10 has also affect Windows 7, and while up until now it may have been a preference choice for the old UI to justify using that operating system, from now on the technical problems which come with it will keep increasing, so stay away: either go to Win 10 or move to Linux


1 there was arguably a reason for people to stay in an older operating system at the time, and that was the increased demand of computing power of the newer operating systems which prevented them to be installed on older machines. This is not true anymore, since Windows 10 requirements are exactly the same as the 10 year old windows 7.

2 concern being data leakage and server vulnerabilities are more likely on a small company and more likely to be severe, because Microsoft has a much more experience in security gathered from failures accumulated along its 40 year of activity and enmity to various revolutionary hacker groups

pqnet
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    The problem is in UI. How to accept such thing like the UI of Win10. – i486 Mar 12 '19 at 14:53
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    Many orgs still use XP. Many orgs are forced to. – schroeder Mar 12 '19 at 14:59
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    Third alternative is to go with macOS. Also, if the OP wants to hang onto his operating system for years he'll have a problem with any OS. REL/Ubuntu/Debian/whatever will give you anywhere from a year to maybe 7 years of support. Not the 10 years that he already has on Win7. – doneal24 Mar 12 '19 at 15:33
  • @i486 This is a personal preference, which I admitted is still relevant as of now, but I argue it's going to become more and more outweighed by the technical discrepancies with a supported OS as Win7 becomes older and buggy and not updated anymore. – pqnet Mar 12 '19 at 15:43
  • @schroeder Exactly the point. Many orgs are _forced_ to use XP because their workflow has software that requires XP, but they wish they weren't, as using XP doesn't come for free: they need to pay somehow for the risk of vulnerabilities, and for the increased workload on the IT department. It may be a good choice to stay with XP/7 for some companies as switching to newer OS may require a bigger cost to renew workflow for the entire company, for a single user these security costs are a massive risk and overhead. Surely nostalgia for the old UI is not the main point in their choice... – pqnet Mar 12 '19 at 15:49
  • I think the angle of "if you are only using it because of preference" is lost in your answer. You appear to express a problem with using older OSes without any qualifiers. – schroeder Mar 12 '19 at 15:51
  • @DougO'Neal not really: telemetry is present in MacOS too and there is even less control over that OS. Moreover MacOS is not a PC operating system - it only runs on Macs - so there is not really a choice to switch from Win7 to MacOs if you don't have a Mac. – pqnet Mar 12 '19 at 15:51
  • @pqnet I agree. Maybe I and other people are waiting for the new Windows with improved UI which is better than the one in Win10. The legend is that Win10 will be "the last Windows" but I guess after some time we will see the next big change in user interface and new name like "Windows 20". – i486 Mar 12 '19 at 15:52
  • @schroeder I was considering the problem from the OP point of view - there may be general reason for which staying on 7 may be the only choice, most often in enterprise environment where the new platform does not support a specific workflow and requires a big investment in re-designing the workflow, but I didn't mention them in here because I didn't think they were relevant (the answer is already too long in my opinion) – pqnet Mar 12 '19 at 15:54
  • @i486 Win10 actually had already had some major feature updates which changed many things, something which in the past was enough to give a new name to the operating system. Differences of the current win10 build to the original win10 are comparable to the differences between Vista and 7, or 8 and 8.1. They just decided that not having to support old versions of the OS by forcing all people to update to the last Win10 build outweighs the revenues of selling copies of the new OS to the small number of people who actually update their system from the pre-installed OS – pqnet Mar 12 '19 at 16:02
  • @schroeder note that the problem with using older windows versions is actually without qualifiers: companies pay for that as a cost, they only choose to keep running old windowses because updating is far more expensive. – pqnet Mar 12 '19 at 16:04
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    XP by most accounts is a much easier to use and for that reason superior OS than 7 or 10. If there weren't constraints on XP I would still be using it. If you have a laptop that is 5-6 years old and sluggish, put a new build of XP on it and it will fly. – blankip Mar 12 '19 at 17:13
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    @blankip: You can achieve the same safely with many currently maintained Linux distributions. – Esa Jokinen Mar 12 '19 at 18:13
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As others have said, it is not recommended to try to use an antivirus as a replacement for system updates. An antivirus is just one component of your system security, which also includes a secure network (incl. updated router), updated firmware and applications (especially your browser), 'street smarts' of what not to click on, and of course, an updated operating system.

However, that does not mean that there is no solution in your specific case. After all, the problem you are having is not that you are required to use Windows 7, but just that you understandably do not want to use Windows 10 with its tracking, preinstalled junk, major updates all the time, and other issues. Luckily, there is a solution to this particular problem, and it's called Windows 10 Enterprise LTSC (Long Term Servicing Channel), also known as LTSB (Long Term Servicing Branch). It contains the same security as regular Windows 10, and is compatible with the same non-Store software, but does not include the Store, Cortana, Start Menu junk, or really anything at all that you wouldn't find on Windows 7 or even XP. Its update schedule is also similar to previous Windows versions - security updates and bug fixes come every month or so, but major feature updates are considered to be completely separate versions, and updates are never forced. Telemetry can be turned down to '0', which is the same bare-minimum value that is normally only available on Windows Server.

I too was in a similar situation as you, and decided that LTSC was the way to go. It's the kind of stable, clean OS that I want on my PC, and since its primary market is embedded systems like POS terminals, it's going to be updated for a very long time. Of course, Microsoft hates when people choose it, but their vital corporate customers demand such an OS.

If you do choose the LTSC route, you can get a key for usually less than $15 on eBay (prices vary).

  • It actually _does_ include much of that stuff, but doesn't run as much of it by default and **reliably** let's you turn off enough of the rest. – Joel Coehoorn Mar 14 '19 at 17:52
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Here is a list of some common ways that computers become infected with malicious software, and whether anti-virus, system patches, or neither of those are effective in protecting against this. As with many questions like this one, a lot depends on the use case.

1) Downloading executable software from the Internet and running it as administrator. This is what anti-virus is most effective at protecting against, but it is far from perfect. Whether or not the system is up to date on patches makes no difference here.

2) Downloading executable software from the Internet and running it as a non privileged user. As of 2019 with normal versions of Windows XP being unpatched for 5 years now, it's fairly uncommon for programs to try to exploit vulnerabilities to gain administrator privileges, but it can happen. Having an up to date system is important in this case. In addition to anti-virus being used to prevent malicious executable from running, anti-virus can sometimes detect if an executable contains a Windows elevation of privilege exploit, but it's easy to fool anti-virus in this case. So anti-virus is only a small substitute.

3) Documents such as Word and Excel documents which exploit unpatched vulnerabilities in Microsoft programs. Anti-virus can often scan these documents for exploits and prevent harm from being done. Since these documents are not executable, the exploit can't hide itself from anti-virus. So anti-virus does help in this case.

4) Remote exploits in system services and the kernel. Anti-virus only scans files in real time, not memory, so it can't help you here. Fortunately, remote exploits are very rare and Microsoft or someone else will probably release a patch even after support is over, as they did with the SMB1 (used by WannaCry) exploit on Windows XP/2003.

5) Internet explorer: Anti-virus doesn't scan memory and can't really help you against a properly written exploit for Internet Explorer. You'll have to find a different browser to use. This also applies to other Microsoft products which connect to the network or Internet. If a security vulnerability exists in one of them, anti-virus can't help you.

6) System libraries like .NET: Programs which open documents and/or connect to the Internet, such as web browsers, use system libraries that are updated by Microsoft. Many of the updates that you get from Windows Update are for these libraries. The Windows JPEG exploit from back in 2004 was a classic example of this. Many programs which weren't made by Microsoft used the Windows JPEG library to decompress JPEG images. After the vulnerability in the Windows JPEG library was discovered, all of these programs became vulnerable to malicious JPEG images. This is a big gray area. Even if Microsoft doesn't release a patch for a system library, it's usually still possible for the application to patch the problem on their side. If it's a popular program like Firefox that is high risk due to popularity, the developers of Firefox might patch it themselves since they know that Microsoft won't.

In general, whether or not anti-virus is able to prevent you from being infected, anti-virus can still scan your hard drive and clean up infections after the fact, but only if the malware is wide spread enough to be recognized by the anti-virus software, and it doesn't use sophisticated cloaking techniques to hide from the anti-virus. This protects you from simple malware, but doesn't protect you from more directed attacks and more sophisticated attacks. The malware can still steal your information and corrupt your system in between the time that you were infected and the anti-virus cleaned it out.

To summarize, if the use case consists mostly of #1, then having an unpatched system really makes no difference, and anti-virus is what you need, now and in the future. If the use case is #3, then anti-virus is a very effective substitute for patches. If the use case is #2, then anti-virus is not a substitute at all. For the others, anti-virus is not a substitute, but there are work arounds. For #6, it's a big gray area.

Alex Cannon
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Sadly you will probably not have much of a choice because Windows 7 will not even support the newest generations of CPUs. Or any kind of reasonably new hardware, for that matter. In 2020 you won't get drivers for anything.
It already doesn't support recent CPUs now (though you can "fix" the problem with a hack, since the does-not-support thing is just deliberate sabotage, not for a technical reason). In 2020 you will be yet another two or so CPU generations in the future, and another two or three GPU generations, and I don't know... whatever comes after U.2, and whatever comes after SATA and USB3.

You will simply not be able to use the hardware -- much like even installing Windows 7 on a typical 2015 computer was already a nuisance because it lacked the drivers necessary to run the installation (unless you slipstreamed them onto the install medium first).

Going without security updates can work, but it's obviously much more bookkeeping, much more paying attention, and still being at higher risk. I would rather go without antivirus than without updates, to be honest. Antivirus is kinda useless and sometimes worse than the malware that it doesn't detect anyway despite constantly consuming 20% of your computer's resources. Security updates, on the other hand, prevent threats from entering your system in the first place. Which is kinda... better.
You're running two AVs on one computer. That's at least one too many (two too many if you ask me).

Your problem with Windows 10 forced updates can probably (I haven't checked since I'm sticking with Windows 7 myself for as long as possible) be fixed. If nothing else, you can simply block the update servers on your gateway (but I'd try going with NtLite first, remove everything related to telemetry and update from the install medium, works like a charm for all the useless crap shipped with Windows 7, probably works just fine with Windows 10, too). Then just bulk-install updates manually.

Although of course security updates are not Windows 10's most urgent problem. Its most urgent issue is that it burns an awful lot of resources doing things that you never asked for and that you do not even want to happen, but on the other hand side it is very bad at doing things that you want (such as, providing an easy and pleasing user interface, or playing a BluRay movie, or just not constantly getting in your way by being "extra smart").

The issue is not limited to computers, it applies to most goods. Everything has to be "smart" and "intelligent" and "connected" nowadays. Nobody needs that shit, and it doesn't work properly either. Plus, it is so creepy to call a machine that spies on you 24/7 with a human-sounding name and pretend it's a living person. What sick person came up with that idea? Cars are worse than they were 5 years ago, too. And with autonomous driving gaining acceptance, they'll still get much worse. Drone taxis on their way, also autonomous, of course. But of course, 99% of all people are just going to buy it, so...

Realistically, you gotta face it. You only have three options:

  1. Go with it, accept that things are the way they are. People will buy crap, and will continue doing so, so the market will inevitably go that way. You don't really have a choice.
  2. Accept that you're too old. Retire. Move to [insert desolate place]. Grow sheep.
  3. Buy rope, hang yourself.
Damon
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  • Or you can just install GNU/Linux and run Windows in a VM. The real issue here is that there will likely be several popular software programs or services, such as something like Facebook or gmail, that will either require Windows 10 or hardware that's less than 6 years old, and people will think that they can't live without it. – Alex Cannon Mar 14 '19 at 14:26
  • Maybe a hardware maker in the future will include a BIOS option to reduce the reported CPU version to allow Windows updates to install! They've done it in the past to fix software bugs that made an installer fail when it detected newer hardware than it was designed for. – Alex Cannon May 03 '20 at 06:13
  • @AlexCannon: It's not a software bug, though. It is a deliberate sabotage (for which, ironically, a "fix" was invented a week later, which simply replaces the IAT entry of the checking routine with a function that always returns `true`). Just like telemetry which sends every keystroke to a third party company in some undefined remote country, and allegedly even MS cannot tell for sure who gets what, is _deliberate_ espionage and, where applicable, deliberate breach of privacy laws. Of course, laws are a mere joke (law applies only to those stupid enough to follo), so... that'll just continue. – Damon May 03 '20 at 10:42
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Can third-party Anti-virus successfully substitute Windows 7 security updates after they are discontinued?

No

Anti-virus software is still just software, and like other software it's designed to run within a certain operating system environment. That is, the software runs as a set of services, shell extensions, and UI programs, all of which are simply normal guest processes within your Windows OS, and depend on APIs and services provided by the the OS.

If the OS environment needed by the anti-virus software is itself flawed, then malware will be able to exploit those flaws to get around any anti-virus software. And, of course, like any large software system, Windows 7 will have flaws, as evidenced on the 2nd Tuesday of every month when we're still, even after 10 years, subjected to a new set of patches to fix yet another set of newly-discovered issues.

Joel Coehoorn
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Upgrade to Linux. Run Windows 7 in a QEMU VM (allows more direct hardware access to videocard VirtualBox). Clone box for each program you want to run. Only one run VM at a time.

Thus, each program is completely sandboxed, and more secure than windows 10 will ever be, even with security updates: Only vulnerabilities will be those in the specific programs which should be getting updates. And your hardware is protected by Linux, which is getting updates.

That said, Windows 10 IS a security hole. Despite all the bad advise on here telling you to do so, side-grading to Windows 10 doesn't make you more secure; it just makes you insecure to different things.

Here's the experiment I ran, if you feel tech-savvy, I suggest you run it too, and not just take my word for it.

I ran a comparative analysis between Win 7 and Win 10 across a DDWRT router that I had sniffing packets on my network (white hat of course). With 100% of Win 10's options adjusted to favor privacy, and Win 7 running stock install, Win 10 had literally nearly twenty times as much data being dumped to the internet while just sitting there than the Win 7 box did by active browsing. All that Win10 data was just waiting to be sniffed, catalogued, advertised on, etc., the vast majority of it going to IPs designated in blocks registered to Microsoft or the US Military (that second one surprised me a bit). Further, blacklisting those IPs on the router... the Windows 7 machine ran fine, but the Windows 10 machine then refused to connect to the internet at all afterwards.

Whatever security you may think you're getting switching to Win10, you'll lose equal measure in different types switching to Win10.

However, between un-updating Win7 and updating Win10, I guess in the end it all boils down to which government you want having your data more... the Chinese government or the US government+Microsoft.

lilHar
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In short - YES, you will be fine.

You asked a simple question, and yet people are going into quantum physics with explanations.

Instead of anti-virus, choose some internet security suite, it comes with a complete package.

Also, remember - lack of common sense in today's virtual world is a killer, even with the best OS and protection you might have. If you are going to visit malicious, suspicious and dangerous sites, nothing will protect you. Unless you are a broker, trading with crypto-currencies, having your own online business, or doing anything that involves money transfers often, than ofc use latest OS combined with good antivirus/Anti-Malware/firewall combo. Cyber criminals choose their targets carefully, common people are at the bottom of their list.

Don't misunderstand this with the online frauds, being naive and getting scammed is really up to you, and got nothing to do with OS security. Even with office support only up to 2016 version, and vendors pulling out with win 7 support soon, you should be fine for the next 4-5 yrs easy. Also, have in mind - win 7 will still continue with paid support in the following years, many companies will pay for this extended support simply due to the efficiency of win 7 in a business environment. It is vastly superior to win 10 since majority employees are not hard-core IT specialists and they are more productive by simplicity and ease of use of win 7, also many companies tends to run their network setups for over a decade minimum, and most of them are not willing and able to spend a small fortune once in 5 yrs to upgrade to a new hardware, software, etc...

Imagine having a good, reliable, with zero issues, 7-8 yrs old copy machine worth 5000 USD, and suddenly no drivers for win 10!? Yes, win 10 will use a generic driver and make it work, but only with basic functions. Forget about advanced options, ain't gonna happened because you can't use software designed for win 7. And "run this program in win 7 compatibility mode" is a joke.

People will say this is a copy machine vendor fault by not writing appropriate drivers, but it's not. But that's a topic for another thread, not this one.

99 % of us use the same logic - what tends to run good, don't touch it. I don't mind moving forward with technology, as long as it suits my needs, not the other way around.

With some common sense, and good 3rd party security software, just go ahead and be happy using what you like, not what others (especially Microsoft) think you should.

alecxe
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