Strategy, Schmategy

What could possibly go wrong?
There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.
—John von Neumann

Bob is unpredictable. No matter what he does, his enemies never see it coming. Now, sometimes a character might appear unpredictable, either because he's making it up as he goes along, or because he's TRYING to be unpredictable.

Bob has other reasons.

Strategy Schmategy describes situations where a character's behavior is unpredictable because he himself simply has no idea what he's doing. He's impossible to anticipate, because not even he knows what he's going to do next.

Subtly different from the Indy Ploy, in that the Indy Ploy is making it up as you go along. Example: Indy needs to escape, ah there is an open window, I'll dive through it and figure out how to safely land after I'm already committed to going through the window, while Strategy Schmategy is about doing something without any plan for it to improve things. Example: Joe is trying to beat Mastermind at a game. Joe doesn't know the rules, or the scoring system, so he's just going to move pieces randomly and hope he wins.

This may actually be an effective means to victory on rare occasions. John Von Neumann, the founder of Game Theory, said randomness is unique in having no consistent counter.

Likely to result in a Spanner in the Works if somebody is running any kind of gambit, because chaos has that kind of effect on carefully-laid plans...but it might have the opposite effect.

Compare Leeroy Jenkins, which is what happens when this kind of mindset bites you in the butt, and Achievements in Ignorance, which is what happens when believing in this actually has an effect.

Contrast Confusion Fu (unpredictability as a strategy in itself, instead of a function of having no strategy), Indy Ploy (where a character doesn't have a plan originally, but comes up with new ones on the fly), Xanatos Speed Chess (adjusting a preexisting plan to accommodate a changing situation), Xanatos Roulette (plans which incorporate a degree of randomness), and Calvin Ball (in which the entire game makes no sense, as opposed to just one of the players).

Examples of Strategy, Schmategy include:

Anime and Manga

  • Kaori from Saki manages to defeat several high-level mahjong players because of the fact that she's a complete amateur. She can't formulate the long term strategies her more experienced competitors are known to do, and as a result they are completely thrown off by her playstyle because they can't think up of an effective counter to it.
  • This pretty much defines Judai Yuki of Yu-Gi-Oh GX.
  • Invoked in Yu-Gi-Oh as a means of countering Pegasus's mind reading abilities.
    • Jonouchi invokes this a little as well by using chance cards with random effects.

Literature

But don't you know, there are some things that can beat smartness and foresight? Awkwardness and stupidity can. The best swordsman in the world doesn't need to fear the second best swordsman in the world; no, the person for him to be afraid of is some ignorant antagonist who has never had a sword in his hand before; he doesn't do the thing he ought to do, and so the expert isn't prepared for him; he does the thing he ought not to do: and often it catches the expert out and ends him on the spot.

    • The same idea is boiled down for one of Murphy's Laws of Combat:

Professional soldiers are predictable, but the world is full of amateurs.

  • In the second Honor Harrington novel, the protagonist paraphrases the Mark Twain quote to her subordinate.
  • In the Age Of Unreason series, a guy is killed by someone who cannot fence at all; he automatically assumed his attack was a mere feint, because no fencer would make such a clumsy attack. Too bad his opponent is not a fencer...
  • In The Wheel of Time, the White Tower's weapons master tells Galad, Gawyn, and Mat a story about history's greatest swordsman, who was only defeated once in his entire life—by a random farmer with a quarterstaff.
    • Although given that Mat had just used a quarterstaff to thump two experienced sword-fighters, the implication was that the story was less about the farmer's incompetence and more a warning that an Improbable Weapon User can be just as deadly as a swordsman.

Tabletop Games

  • The Trope Namer is a certain Magic: The Gathering card with a completely random (but powerful) effect. Amusingly enough, this type of behavior is guaranteed to end poorly for you unless your opponent is either very unlucky with his draws or just as bad as you are.
  • This type of behavior is sure to completely derail an entire game of Diplomacy.[1]
  • Professional Poker players can sometimes be thwarted by novices and amateurs, who make plays that no professional would be stupid enough to attempt and end up short-circuiting the professionals' expectations.
  • The above comment about Poker is also is true for billiards players.
  • The same is true for many martial arts and sports descended from martial arts, such as fencing; the expert has an advantage over someone with no experience, but an even larger advantage against a raw beginner. Amateurs throw wild attacks and helpless flailing which occasionally just work. Confusion Fu is when a person specifically uses this confusion, this is the unintentional kind.
  • This doesn't work in Chess, where it's almost impossible to beat a player who's above your level. This is because if the neophyte makes a bizarre move during the opening it is most likely a bad move, and that alone tells the good player that he's not against a strong opponent. Also, it's said that playing against someone who's way worse than you will dull your skills, and it's highly advised to avoid doing so.
  • Many orkish units in various editions of Warhammer Fantasy Battle and Warhammer 40,000 have this as a special rule. The most prominent example being the Giant.

Video Games

Snow: Since when have heroes ever needed plans?

Web Comics

Western Animation

  • In the Avatar: The Last Airbender episode "The Warriors of Kyoshi," Zuko is freaking out about his inability to track the Avatar, due to him being "a master of evasive maneuvering." Cut to the Gaang flying on Appa and Sokka saying to Aang: "You have no idea where you're going, do you?"
  • Kung Fu Panda: The main reason Tai Lung finds Po a frustrating opponent for most of the Final Battle is because his moves are composed of a mixture of this and Indy Ploys. The overall effect is similar to Confusion Fu.

Real Life

  • There is some truth in the comments about fencing in the Literature section. The people who run most afoul of this are beginning fencers against first-timers, since they want to play by the rules and do things properly, but don't have the technique and reaction time yet. Epeeists in particular are notorious for finding first-timers more challenging than neophytes since epee has no rules of Right of Way. Right of Way defines a dynamic where you can not score on an attack if you have not defended yourself from an opponent's attack, and the wildly flailing new fencer often runs afoul of those rules. Epee lacks those rules, and new fencers often do unpredictable, senseless things than can almost accidentally result in touches. After some practice, they end up doing worse because they begin learning what they're doing, though that's a necessary step to mastering the weapon. This is why epee is not traditionally the first weapon a fencer learns.
  • A martial artist often hates sparring against rank beginners, since their wild flailing is more likely to result in injury to someone than a somewhat skilled opponent's controlled movements. Likewise, a completely untrained fighter relying on instinct and athleticism is often better than a beginning martial artist or boxer. When the training takes effect, the reverse is true.
  • A humorous poster portrayed this as a Soviet assessment of the U.S. military: "One of the serious problems in planning against American doctrine is that the Americans do not read their manuals nor do they feel any obligations to follow their doctrine."
  1. ↑ Unless that's just what they wanted you to think...
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