Climate change in Pakistan

Climate change is expected to cause wide reaching effects on Pakistan. In addition to increased heat and other extreme weather conditions and drought conditions in some parts of the country, the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas, threatens the volumetric flow rate of many of the most important rivers of Pakistan. As a result of ongoing climate change, the climate of Pakistan has become increasingly volatile over the past several decades; this trend is expected to continue.

Pakistan makes a tiny contribution to total global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, less than 1% (among the lowest in the world)[1] but it is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change, and it has very low technical and financial capacity to adapt to its adverse impacts.[2] Food and water security, as well as large displacement of populations are already being threatened. Members of the public expect to have widespread impacts on their lives.[3]

Emissions and emissions mitigation

Climate Change Mitigation Pakistan's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are low compared to international standards. In 2008 Pakistan's total GHG emissions were 310 million tons of CO2 equivalent. These comprised: CO2 54%; Methane (CH4) 36%; Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 9%; Carbon Monoxide (CO) 0.7%; and Non-Methane volatile organic compounds 0.3%. (Source: National GHG inventory 2008). The energy sector is the single largest source of GHG emission in Pakistan; it accounts for nearly 51% of these emissions and is followed by the agriculture sector (39%), industrial processes (6%), land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) (3%) emissions and waste (1%) (Source: National GHG inventory 2008).

As such, the most important targets for mitigation efforts focused on reduction of GHG emissions are the energy and agriculture sectors. In the energy sector, integration of climate change and energy policy objectives is particularly important as today's investment will “lock in” the infrastructure, fuel and technologies to be used for decades to come. Similarly, the building and transport infrastructure put in place today should meet the design needs of the future. Therefore, greater attention must be paid to energy efficiency requirements in building codes and long-term transport planning.[4]

According to research led by Dr. Adil Najam at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, by 2040 the cost of climate change to agriculture in Pakistan is likely to be up to 7% of productivity but that good climate adaptation practices could result in a net productivity gain of up to 40+%.

Effects

The important climate change threats to Pakistan are:[5]

  • Considerable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.
  • Increased siltation of major dams caused by more frequent and intense floods;
  • Rising temperatures resulting in enhanced heat and water-stressed conditions, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, leading to reduced agricultural productivity;
  • Further decrease in the already scanty forest cover, from too rapid change in climatic conditions to allow natural migration of adversely affected plant species;
  • Increased intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta, adversely affecting coastal agriculture, mangroves and the breeding grounds of fish;
  • Threat to coastal areas due to projected sea level rise and increased cyclonic activity due to higher sea surface temperatures;
  • Increased stress between upper riparian and lower riparian regions in relation to sharing of water resources;
  • Increased health risks and climate change induced migration.

Extreme weather
Further information: List_of_extreme_weather_records_in_Pakistan

Government projections, highlight considerable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, coupled with erratic monsoon rains causing frequent and intense floods and droughts.[5] For example, between 1998-2018 Pakistan reported more than 150 extreme weather events.[6]

Sea intrusion and erosion

Indus River Delta cities and islands have increasingly been eroded due to rising sea level.[7] One government official described 3 million acres of land being lost because of this.[7] This change has displaced over 1 million people.[7]

Migration
Further information: Demographics of Pakistan

Due to extreme weather and uncertain economic outcomes, rural communities in Pakistan have been displaced in large numbers to major cities.[8] Experts expect 20% of the population to move to major cities; current migration patterns included 700,000 people a year moving from rural to urban environments.[8] Larger estimates, including major displacements because of extreme weather, suggest as many as 20 million migrants from rural to urban communities since 2010.[8]

Government action

Various programs focused on adaptation and mitigation have been developed within the Pakistani government. Since 2017, a cabinet-level ministry has led much of that capacity.

Ministry of Climate Change
This section is an excerpt from Ministry of Climate Change (Pakistan)[edit]

The Ministry of Climate Change (Urdu: وزارت ماحولیاتی تبدیلی‎; abbreviated as MoCC), is a Cabinet-level ministry of the Government of Pakistan concerned with climate change in Pakistan. The advisor to the Prime Minister, Malik Amin Aslam is in charge of the ministry with the status of a Federal Minister. . Zartaj Gul is the current Minister of State for Climate Change.

Prime Minister Imran Khan launched the Clean Green Pakistan Movement on 8 October 2018 to help create a clean and green environment of Pakistan.[9] The annual budget for the year 2018-2019 is 802.69 million rupees according to the PSDP Report.[10]

When coming into power, Prime Minister Imran Khan also launched the 10 Billion Tree Tsunami which aims at planting trees across the nation in a span of five years in hopes of reversing decades of deforestation.[11]

Reforestation

Pakistan only has less than 6% forest area. This, combined with the climate changes, exacerbates challenges such as flooding, heat waves, and soil loss.[12] Starting in 2014, the government started pursuing a Billion Tree Tsunami policy, and in 2018 that policy was extend to a 10 billion tree Plant for Pakistan program.[6] During the COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan, government agencies continued their reforestation program planning to plant and creating 60,000 jobs among the unemployed.[12]

Public opinion

According to the BBC Climate Asia report,[3] the majority of the Pakistani people surveyed claimed that climate change has heavily impacted their lives in the form of floods and droughts, and most importantly has affected the availability of resources such as energy and water. 53% of Pakistanis felt that their lives had become worse off than they were five years ago. Although the effects of climate change are evident, the survey found that the majority of the people were unaware of the meaning of climate change, and "ascribed changes in climate and extreme weather events to the will of God."[3]

References
  1. "Pakistan crafts plan to cut carbon emissions 30% by 2025". The Express Tribune. 10 June 2015. Retrieved 10 June 2015.
  2. "Pakistan National Policy on Climate Change". Archived from the original on 2016-03-05. Retrieved 2015-05-10.
  3. Zaheer, Khadija; Colom, Anna. "Pakistan, How the people of Pakistan live with climate change and what communication can do" (PDF). www.bbc.co.uk/climateasia. BBC Media Action.
  4. "Pakistan National Policy on Climate Change". Archived from the original on 2016-03-05. Retrieved 2015-05-10.
  5. "Pakistan National Policy on Climate Change". Archived from the original on 2016-03-05. Retrieved 2015-05-10.
  6. "Pakistan's virus-idled workers hired to plant trees". www.aljazeera.com. Retrieved 2020-04-29.
  7. "Climate change triggers widespread Pakistan migration". www.aa.com.tr. Retrieved 2020-04-29.
  8. "Climate change triggers widespread Pakistan migration". www.aa.com.tr. Retrieved 2020-04-29.
  9. "Clean Green Pakistan". cleangreen.gov.pk. Retrieved 2020-08-09.
  10. "Budget 2018-19: Govt allocates Rs 802 million for Climate Change Division". Profit by Pakistan Today. 2018-04-27. Retrieved 2019-02-23.
  11. "New leader of terror-torn Pakistan plans to plant 10 billion trees". NBC News. Retrieved 2019-02-23.
  12. "Pakistan's virus-idled workers hired to plant trees". www.aljazeera.com. Retrieved 2020-04-29.
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