2020 United States Senate election in Maine

The 2020 United States Senate election in Maine will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Maine, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The major party candidates are incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins, who is seeking reelection to a fifth term, and Sara Gideon, the Democratic nominee. Several independent candidates are also running.

2020 United States Senate election in Maine

November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Susan Collins Sara Gideon Lisa Savage
Party Republican Democratic Independent

Incumbent U.S. senator

Susan Collins
Republican


Background

Republican Senator Susan Collins is running for a fifth term. Collins has won each election to this seat with a greater victory margin than the one before it. Observers do not anticipate this election to continue that trend.[1][2][3][4] The New York Times's Ideology Tracker considers Collins the most liberal Republican in the U.S. Senate.[5]

Collins was criticized for her decision to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the United States Supreme Court.[6][7] She also faced criticism from her stance on the impeachment of President Donald Trump. Collins expressed her support for witness testimony in the Senate trial and she was the first Republican to do so.[8] Witness testimony did not occur. Collins voted to acquit Trump on both charges of abuse of power as well as obstruction of Congress.[9][10][11][12] Collins said that she voted to acquit because "impeachment of a president should be reserved for conduct that poses such a serious threat to our governmental institutions as to warrant the extreme step of immediate removal from office. I voted to acquit President Clinton, even though the House Managers proved to my satisfaction that he did commit a crime, because his conduct did not meet that threshold."[13] She added that Trump has learned "a pretty big lesson" by being impeached.[14] Eventually, she corrected herself by saying that she did not believe that Trump had learned his lesson from impeachment so much as she hoped that he did.[15] During the COVID-19 pandemic, Collins also received some backlash for arguing against $870 million in pandemic funding from the stimulus bill that came in response to the Great Recession - a move that she has defended.[16][17] Collins has also been criticized for running for third, fourth, and fifth Senate terms despite vowing to serve no more than two terms during her 1996 campaign.[18][19] For these reasons among others, this election is more competitive than usual. It is now one of the most intensely and diligently observed elections in the 2020 election cycle.

The Democratic nominee, Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives Sara Gideon, faced an election ethics complaint for breaking political donation law by accepting reimbursements for her political donations from her own PAC; she later apologized for the reimbursements.[20]

Party primaries were initially scheduled to take place on June 9, but due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the state, Governor Janet Mills rescheduled them for July 14. Mills's executive order also expanded voters' ability to request absentee ballots, which may now be done up to and on election day.[21] The primaries were conducted with ranked choice voting. Parties qualified to participate in the 2020 primary election were the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, and the Maine Green Independent Party.

Democratic primary

On April 20, 2019, attorney and activist Bre Kidman became the first person to announce their candidacy for the Democratic nomination, making them the first ever U.S. Senate candidate who identifies as non-binary.[22] [23] [24] On June 13, 2019, former Maine gubernatorial candidate Betsy Sweet declared her candidacy.[25] Eleven days later, Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon announced her candidacy, receiving widespread media coverage.[26][27][28][29] A number of other candidates announced their candidacies, including General Jon Treacy and former Google executive and political aide Ross LaJeunesse, who would have been the first openly gay man elected to the Senate. LaJeunesse and Treacy withdrew, with LaJeunesse endorsing Gideon. Two debates were held with all three candidates, while one hosted by WCSH was attended only by Sweet and Kidman.[30][31][32]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Sara Gideon
Federal officials
State officials
Other individuals
Organizations
Unions
Publications
Betsy Sweet
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Sara
Gideon
Betsy
Sweet
Other /
Undecided
Victory Geek (D) May 13–18, 2020 306 ± 5.6% 64% 17% 19%[lower-alpha 2]
Colby College/SocialSphere February 10–13, 2020 350 60% 8% 33%[lower-alpha 3]

Results

Results by county
  Gideon—70–80%
  Gideon—60–70%
Democratic primary results[77]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Sara Gideon 116,264 71.5%
Democratic Betsy Sweet 37,327 22.9%
Democratic Bre Kidman 9,090 5.6%
Total votes 162,681 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Amy Colter, law office manager (write-in candidate)[79]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Susan Collins
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Senators
State officials
Organizations

Polling

Head-to-head matchups

Former candidates
with Susan Collins and Derek Levasseur
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins
Derek
Levasseur
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 55% 10% 34%
Hypothetical polling
with Susan Collins and Paul LePage
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins
Paul
LePage
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 29% 63% 8%
with Susan Collins and Shawn Moody
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins
Shawn
Moody
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 36% 45% 18%
with Susan Collins and generic Republican if Collins supported impeaching Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 35% 55% 10
with Susan Collins and Derek Levasseur if Collins supported impeaching Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins
Derek
Levasseur
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 37% 24% 39%
with Susan Collins and generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 53% 38% 9%

Results

Republican primary results[88]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Susan Collins (incumbent) 87,375 98.8%
Republican Amy Colter (write-in) 1,073 1.2%
Total votes 88,448 100.0%

Other candidates

Green Party

Two candidates declared their intentions to run for the Maine Green Independent Party's nomination, but one withdrew and the other left the party to become an independent.

Withdrawn

  • David Gibson, solar design specialist (endorsed Savage)[89]
  • Lisa Savage, school teacher[90] (switched to independent)[91]

Independents

Eight Independents have declared their candidacy for Senate in 2020, including one affiliated with the Libertarian Party of Maine, which lost ballot access after the 2018 elections.[92] Two qualified for the November ballot.[93]

Declared

Withdrawn

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[98] Tossup July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[99] Tossup July 10, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[100] Tossup August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[101] Tossup July 22, 2020
Politico[102] Tossup July 6, 2020
RCP[103] Tossup August 6, 2020
Niskanen[104] Likely D (flip) July 26, 2020
270towin[105] Lean D (flip) August 6, 2020

Endorsements

Sara Gideon (D)
Federal officials
US Senators
US Congresspeople
Governors
Other individuals
Organizations
Unions
Susan Collins (R)
Federal officials
State officials
Organizations
Lisa Savage (I)
Elected officials
Notable individuals
Organizations
Declined to endorse

Polling

Aggregate Polls

Sara Gideon vs. Susan Collins
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Sara Gideon Susan Collins Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 4] Margin
270 to Win February 18, 2020 - August 06, 2020 August 12, 2020 45.8% 40.6% 13.6% Gideon +5.2
Real Clear Politics February 10, 2020 - July 03, 2020 August 12, 2020 45.0% 40.5% 14.5% Gideon +4.5
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins (R)
Sara
Gideon (D)
Other /
Undecided
Critical Insights July 28 – August 9, 2020 500 ± 4.3% 35% 43% 22%[lower-alpha 5]
Quinnipiac University July 30 – August 3, 2020 807 ± 3.5% 43% 47% 10%
RMG Research July 27 – August 2, 2020 500 ± 4.5% 41% 48% 11%
Data for Progress July 24 – August 2, 2020 866 ± 3.0% 45% 48% 7%
Colby College July 18–24, 2020 888 ± 3.9% 39% 44% 18%[lower-alpha 6]
Public Policy Polling July 22–23, 2020 561 ± 3.6% 42% 47% 11%
Public Policy Polling July 2–3, 2020 1,022 ± 3.1% 42% 46% 11%[lower-alpha 7]
Moore Information (R)[upper-alpha 1] June 20–24, 2020[lower-alpha 8] 600 ± 4.0% 45% 37% 4%[lower-alpha 9]
Victory Geek (D) May 13–18, 2020 512 ± 4.3% 42% 51% 7%[lower-alpha 10]
Tarrance Group/1820 PAC (R) April, 2020 [lower-alpha 11] 48% 47%
Public Policy Polling March 2–3, 2020 872 ± 3.3% 43% 47% 10%[lower-alpha 12]
Colby College/SocialSphere February 10–13, 2020 1,008 ± 3.1% 42% 43% 14%[lower-alpha 13]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 52% 35% 13%[lower-alpha 14]
Gravis Marketing June 24, 2019 767 ± 3.5% 52%[lower-alpha 15] 36% 12%[lower-alpha 16]
44%[lower-alpha 17] 30% 26%[lower-alpha 18]
Pan Atlantic Research March 4–13, 2019 500 ± 4.4% 51% 29% 20%[lower-alpha 19]
Hypothetical polling
with Betsy Sweet
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Betsy Sweet (D) Susan
Collins (R)
Other /
Undecided
Victory Geek (D) May 13–18, 2020 512 ± 4.3% 44% 43% 10%
with Susan Rice
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Rice (D)
Susan
Collins (R)
Other /
Undecided
Emerson College October 27–29, 2018 883 ± 3.5% 20% 44% 35%
with generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Susan Collins (R) Other /
Undecided
Victory Geek (D) May 13–18, 2020 512 ± 4.3% 49% 39% 12%[lower-alpha 20]
Colby College/SocialSphere Feb 10-13, 2020 1,008 (LV) ± 3.1% 34% 40% 26%
Public Policy Polling October 11–13, 2019 939 ± 3.2% 44% 41% 15%[lower-alpha 21]
Public Policy Polling October 1–2, 2018 ± 3.3% 34% 42%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] August 28–29, 2017 501 21% 51% 27%[lower-alpha 22]
with generic Democrat if Collins supports impeaching Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Susan
Collins (R)
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling October 11–13, 2019 939 ± 3.2% 38% 32% 30%
with generic Democrat if Collins opposes impeaching Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Susan
Collins (R)
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling October 11–13, 2019 939 ± 3.2% 47% 40% 13%
on whether Collins deserves to be re-elected
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Yes No Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 38% 55% 7%
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 42% 43% 15%

Results

United States Senate election in Maine, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Sara Gideon
Republican Susan Collins (incumbent)
Independent Max Linn
Independent Lisa Savage
Total votes 100.0%

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. The NRSC, which sponsored this poll, exclusively supports Republican candidates in US Senate elections
  2. Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line
Voter samples
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Undecided with 19%
  3. Undecided with 31%; LaJeunesse with 0%; "another candidate" with 2%
  4. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. Lisa Savage (I) with 5%, Refused with 2%, Undecided with 15%
  6. "Minor party candidates" with 6% and Undecided with 12%
  7. Undecided with 11%
  8. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  9. Savage (I) with 3%; Linn (I) with 1%
  10. Undecided with 7%
  11. Not released
  12. Undecided with 10%
  13. Undecided with 14%
  14. Undecided with 12%; "Would not vote/would not vote for US Senate" with 1%
  15. If the only two candidates were Collins and Gideon
  16. Undecided with 12%
  17. First choice on an RCV ballot if the candidates were Collins, Gideon and VanHelsing (I)
  18. Undecided with 19%; VanHelsing with 7%
  19. "Other" with 12%; Undecided with 8%
  20. Undecided with 12%
  21. Undecided with 15%
  22. Undecided with 27%

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