2020 Myanmar general election

General elections are scheduled to be held in Myanmar on 8 November 2020. Voting will occur in all constituencies, excluding seats appointed by/reserved for the military, to elect members to both the upper house (the House of Nationalities) and the lower house (the House of Representatives) of the Assembly of the Union, and State and Regional Hluttaws (legislatures). Ethnic Affairs Ministers will also be elected by their designated electorates on the same day, although only select ethnic minorities in particular states and regions will be entitled to vote for them. A total of 1,171 national, state and regional seats are up for grabs in the election, with polling set to take place in all townships, including areas considered conflict zones and self-administered regions.[1]

2020 Myanmar general election

8 November 2020
330 (of the 440) seats to the House of Representatives 168 (of the 224) seats to the House of Nationalities
Leader Aung San Suu Kyi Than Htay Party NLD USDP Leader since 27 September 1988 23 August 2016 Leader's seat Kawhmu Standing in Zeyathiri Last election 255 R / 135 N 30 R / 11 N Current seats 255 R / 135 N 30 R / 11 N Seats needed 191 R / 102 N
Incumbent President Win Myint NLD

Electoral system

All elected offices are contested under a first-past-the-post system, where a candidate needs only a plurality of votes in a constituency to be elected. One-quarter of seats in both houses of the Assembly of the Union are reserved for the military under the 2008 Constitution. After the new legislators take office, the President and the two Vice Presidents of Myanmar are elected by the Presidential Electoral College, made up of MPs. People married to a non-Burmese citizen, and/or who have children without Burmese citizenship are barred from being elected to any presidential position. Elected officials will take office in March 2021. For a majority, a party or coalition(s) require 221 seats in the House of Representatives and 113 seats in the House of Nationalities.

On 29 June 2020, the Election Commission announced the constituency reapportionment for the 330 non-appointed seats in the House of Representatives:

State/Region	Constituencies allocated
Ayeyarwady Region	26
Bago Region	28
Chin State	9
Kachin State	18
Kayah State	7
Kayin State	7
Magway Region	25
Mandalay Region (including Naypyidaw Union Territory)	36
Mon State	10
Rakhine State	17
Sagaing Region	37
Shan State	55
Tanintharyi Region	10
Yangon Region	45
Total	330

Background

The prior elections in 2015 were only the second considered at least semi-democratic in the country since 1960 (the first being in 1990, which the military invalidated), as for a majority of its independent history it was either controlled by a totalitarian dictatorship or a military junta. The National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, won a majority of seats and votes, taking 86 percent of the seats in the Assembly of the Union (235 in the House of Representatives and 135 in the House of Nationalities), well more than the 67 percent supermajority needed to ensure that its preferred candidates would be elected president and second vice president in the Presidential Electoral College. The party technically also needed at least 67 percent to outvote the combined pro-military bloc in the Presidential Electoral College (the Union Solidarity and Development Party and the appointed legislators representing the military). Although NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi is constitutionally barred from the presidency (as both her late husband and her children are foreign citizens), she is currently the de facto head of government, after being appointed to a newly created office, the State Counsellor of Myanmar, a position akin to a Prime Minister.[2] Most political parties in the country are ethnically-based, with only two (the NLD and the USDP) having large sway at the national level, although both are dominated by the ethnic Bamar majority. Parties also tend to be personalistic (based on the attitudes and personality of their leaders) rather than having a stable ideological platform.

The election will take place during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as both the Rohingya conflict and the Rohingya genocide (alongside international condemnation for said events). In addition, the government has also been criticised for restricting press freedom and having failed to deal with the country's economic issues, putting dents in its electoral promise of reform.[3][4][5]

Rohingya conflicts

Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy's actions since being elected in 2015 have been described by international media and international organisations including the United Nations, International Criminal Court, and Amnesty International as failing to stop the persecution of the Rohingya people, a Muslim minority group mainly in Rakhine State,[6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16] although it is unclear how much say they actually have, regardless of their relative silence on the matter. The actions of the military, who are said to hold the real power in the region,[17][18] have been described as crimes against humanity and a genocide.[19][20][21][22][23][24] Over 25,000 people have been killed in the conflicts, with tens of thousands more being injured or subjected to sexual violence,[25] in addition to over 700,000 people having fled the country, mostly to neighboring Bangladesh. Media activity in the province is heavily restricted by the government.

Economic issues

According to the IMF:[26]

• Myanmar has seen a sharp decline in exports, remittances, and tourist arrivals due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Domestic economic activity has also been constrained by measures taken to control the spread of the virus. Additionally, nearly four out of five workers in Myanmar are employed in the informal sector, with limited access to social safety nets to help cope with any economic fallout.

• Natural gas comprised 40 percent of exports and 20 percent of government revenues in fiscal year 2018/19, and due to a drop in prices in 2020, the current account and fiscal position of the country became even more strained.
• The Burmese kyat, in contrast to trends elsewhere in the region, has appreciated in value. "The country's trade deficit had narrowed for about a year, leading to exchange rate appreciation pressures. This trend has now started to unwind. This may continue as imports pick up and the economy is projected to recover. At the same time, Myanmar’s foreign exchange intervention rule, adopted late last year, has facilitated accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, which remain inadequate."

In addition, some construction and infrastructure projects have been either delayed or cancelled due to supply and demand shocks as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the US$1 billion Yangon Elevated Expressway and the development of the US$8-10 billion Dawei Special Economic Zone and accompanying US$137.1 million Dawei-Htee Kee Road linking the zone to Ratchaburi in Thailand. The government has also not been able to muster up enough funds to put together a stimulus package, only allocating the equivalent of around US$72 million to assist small- and medium-sized enterprises compared to the tens of billions allocated in nearby countries like Thailand.[27] Prior to the pandemic, some areas of the country's economy had been highlighted as trouble spots, including bank lending and tourism.[28] GDP growth is expected to decline nearly 7% from the prior year, with overall GDP expected to about break even with the prior year.[29]

COVID-19

Despite only reporting around 300 confirmed cases of COVID-19 nationwide as of early July 2020, Myanmar has limited testing capacity, so it is unknown as to the true extent of the disease's spread. Authorities implemented strict containment measures early on regardless, including travel restrictions, closure of land borders, and bans on mass public gatherings.[26]

Constitutional reform

In January 2019, the National League for Democracy pushed for constitutional reform, but was unsuccessful, as any changes required 75% approval in the legislature, and 25% of seats are reserved for the military. Outside of these seats, the pro-military USDP was also unlikely to go along (as well as other minor parties potentially being unwilling), meaning any proposals were dead on arrival.[28]

Opinion polls

Question: In general, would you say our country is heading in the right or wrong direction?

Date	Polling firm	Publisher	Right direction	Wrong direction	Don't know / No response
July 2019	Center for Insights in Survey Research	International Republican Institute	77	19	5
April 2017	Center for Insights in Survey Research	International Republican Institute	75	16	9

The main item a majority felt the country was headed in the right direction with was infrastructure, while the main reasons people felt the country was headed in the wrong direction included increasing prices of goods, continuing poor economic conditions, and ethnic violence. Illicit drug use and crime were also cited as major problems in the 2019 poll.

Question: How would you describe the current economic situation in the country?

Date	Polling firm	Publisher	Very good	Somewhat good	Somewhat bad	Very bad	Don't know / No response
July 2019	Center for Insights in Survey Research	International Republican Institute	10	51	25	9	5
April 2017	Center for Insights in Survey Research	International Republican Institute	10	53	22	9	6

Question: As of now, in order to amend the Constitution it would require the support of more than 75% of parliament. Do you support or oppose making it easier to change the Constitution by amending this requirement?

Date	Polling firm	Publisher	Strongly support	Somewhat support	Somewhat oppose	Strongly oppose	Don't know / No response
July 2019	Center for Insights in Survey Research	International Republican Institute	43	37	4	5	11
April 2017	Center for Insights in Survey Research	International Republican Institute	48	32	4	5	11

Most respondents who supported making it easier to change the Constitution also supported changing the requirement that spouses and any children of a candidate be citizens in order to be eligible for the presidency.

Question: Do you support giving the states and regions more autonomy and power so that they can make decisions for themselves, or do you think that all power and decisions should be centralized and made by the union government?

Date	Polling firm	Publisher	More regional autonomy	Centralized power	Don't know / No response
July 2019	Center for Insights in Survey Research	International Republican Institute	22	70	8
April 2017	Center for Insights in Survey Research	International Republican Institute	23	67	10

Despite most respondents preferring more centralized power at the national level, slightly over half felt that states/regions should have more control over natural resources located within their boundaries.

References

1. "Myanmar sets November 8 date for general election". Al Jazeera. 2 July 2020. Retrieved 28 July 2020.
2. "Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy Wins Majority in Myanmar". BBC News. 13 November 2015. Retrieved 13 November 2015.
3. "Is the world getting Myanmar wrong?". The Economist. 26 October 2017. Archived from the original on 28 October 2017. Retrieved 30 October 2017.(subscription required)
4. "Press freedom is waning in Myanmar". The Economist. 8 March 2018. Archived from the original on 8 March 2018. Retrieved 9 March 2018.(subscription required)
5. Nebehay, Stephanie; Naing, Shoon; Collett-White, Mike. "Myanmar army, government aim to silence independent journalism: U.N." Reuters. Archived from the original on 12 September 2018. Retrieved 13 September 2018.
6. Taub, Amanda; Fisher, Max (31 October 2017). "Did the World Get Aung San Suu Kyi Wrong?". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 14 November 2017. Retrieved 14 November 2017.
7. Beech, Hannah (25 September 2017). "What Happened to Myanmar's Human-Rights Icon?". The New Yorker. Archived from the original on 14 November 2017. Retrieved 14 November 2017.
8. "Dispatches – On Demand – All 4". Channel 4. Archived from the original on 15 May 2018. Retrieved 14 May 2018.
9. Cook, Jesselyn (24 April 2018). "Suu Kyi's Silence: Why Myanmar's Leader Is Ignoring The Rohingya Genocide". HuffPost. Archived from the original on 23 May 2020. Retrieved 22 May 2020.
10. Ratcliffe, Rebecca (12 November 2018). "Aung San Suu Kyi stripped of Amnesty's highest honour over 'shameful betrayal'". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 12 November 2018. Retrieved 27 July 2020.
11. "AP finds mass graves, latest evidence of Rohingya genocide in Myanmar". CBS News. Archived from the original on 11 April 2018. Retrieved 10 April 2018.
12. "U.N. genocide advisor: Myanmar waged 'scorched-earth campaign' against the Rohingya". Los Angeles Times. Archived from the original on 11 April 2018. Retrieved 10 April 2018.
13. "UN official convinced of Myanmar Rohingya 'genocide'". CNN. Archived from the original on 11 April 2018. Retrieved 10 April 2018.
14. "UN Security Council: End disgraceful inaction on Myanmar's Rohingya crisis". Amnesty International. 11 December 2017. Archived from the original on 11 April 2018. Retrieved 10 April 2018.
15. "Tillerson: Myanmar clearly 'ethnic cleansing' the Rohingya". CNN. Archived from the original on 10 April 2018. Retrieved 10 April 2018.
16. "'Hallmarks of genocide': ICC prosecutor seeks justice for Rohingya". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 10 April 2018. Retrieved 10 April 2018.
17. Tarabay, Jamie (6 December 2017). "Myanmar's military: The power Aung San Suu Kyi can't control". CNN. Retrieved 30 July 2020.
18. Wade, Francis (2 October 2017). "How Myanmar's Military Wields Power From the Shadows" (Interview). Interviewed by Eleanor Albert. Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved 29 July 2020.
19. "Permanent Peoples Tribunal finds Myanmar guilty of genocide". New Straits Times. Bernama. 22 September 2017. Archived from the original on 1 February 2018.
20. "Myanmar found guilty of genocide". The Daily Star. 23 September 2017. Archived from the original on 29 September 2017.
21. Nebehay, Stephanie (27 August 2018). "U.N. calls for Myanmar generals to be tried for genocide, blames Facebook for incitement". Reuters. Archived from the original on 5 September 2018. Retrieved 23 August 2018.
22. "Myanmar Rohingya: UN says military leaders must face genocide charges," Archived 6 September 2018 at the Wayback Machine 27 August 2018, BBC News. Retrieved 28 August 2018
23. "Investigators call for genocide prosecutions over slaughter of Rohingyas," Archived 29 August 2018 at the Wayback Machine 27 August 2018, CBS News. Retrieved 28 August 2018
24. Beech, Hannah (25 August 2018). "Year After Rohingya Massacres, Top Generals Unrepentant and Unpunished". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 2 September 2018. Retrieved 27 August 2018.
25. Khan, Ahmed. "Prevalence of violence against children: Evidence from 2017 Rohingya Refugee crises". ResearchGate. Retrieved 14 August 2019.
26. De, Jayendu; Nadeem, Sanaa (7 July 2020). "Six Charts on Myanmar's Economy in the Time of COVID-19". International Monetary Fund. Retrieved 29 July 2020.
27. Bharat, Shah Suraj (17 April 2020). "COVID-19 Threatens Myanmar's Economy". The Diplomat. Retrieved 29 July 2020.
28. Sainsbury, Michael (26 February 2019). "The gloom about Myanmar's economy". The Lowy Institute. Retrieved 29 July 2020.
29. "Myanmar's Economy Severely Impacted by COVID-19: Report - Myanmar". ReliefWeb. 25 June 2020. Retrieved 29 July 2020 – via The World Bank.