Opinion polling for the next Israeli legislative election

In the run up to the next Israeli legislative election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Israel during the term of the 23rd Knesset. This article lists the results of such polls.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous election, held on 2 March 2020, to the present day. The next election was scheduled to be held on 5 November 2024. However, due to the political deadlock which resulted after the previous election, a fourth consecutive snap election is possible.[1] Therefore polling for the next election started as soon as 10 days after the previous election.[2] As part of the coalition agreement made to resolve the deadlock, the election is now scheduled to happen no later than 5 May 2023. No polls may be published from the end of the Friday before the election until the polling stations close on election day at 22:00.[3]

Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the highest figures. When a poll has no information on a certain party, that party is instead marked by a dash (–).

Seat projections

This section displays voting intention estimates referring to a hypothetical Knesset election. The figures listed are Knesset seat counts rather than percentages, unless otherwise stated.

Graphs

This graph shows the polling trends from the 2 March 2020 Israeli legislative election until the next election day using 4-poll moving average. Scenario polls are not included here.

For parties not crossing the electoral threshold (currently 3.25%) in any given poll, the number of seats is calculated as a percentage of the 120 total seats. Labor-Meretz-Gesher and Labor-Meretz are shown as Labour before the splits.

Polls

Poll results are listed in the table below. Parties that fall below the electoral threshold are denoted by the percentage of votes that they received (N%) rather than the number of seats they would have gotten.

Legend

61 seats are required for a majority in the Knesset.

Note: The composition of the current government does not necessarily determine the exact makeup of the post-election government.

Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Yesh Atid
–Telem		 Joint
List		 Blue &
White		 Shas UTJ Yisrael
Beiteinu		 Yamina Meretz Labor Derekh
Eretz		 Jewish
Home		 Gesher Otzma
Yehudit		 Gov.
Current seats 36 17 15 14 9 7 7 5 3 3 2 1 1 – 72
13 Aug 2020 Panels Politics Maariv[4] 27 20 15 9 8 7 9 18 7 – – – – – 51
10 Aug 2020 Geocartographia Maariv[5] 29 19 14 13 7 9 7 14 8 – – – – – 58
6–7 Aug 2020 Midgam Channel 12[6] 31 18 15 11 8 8 7 16 6 (1.9%) (0.6%) (0.4%) (0.0%) – 58
6 Aug 2020 Maagar Mochot Jerusalem Post[7] 32 18 16 11 10 8 8 12 5 – – – – – 61
6 Aug 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[8] 29 19 15 8 8 7 8 19 7 – – – – – 52
6 Aug 2020 Kantar Kan 11[9] 30 17 16 12 9 8 7 15 6 (1.1%) (1.2%) (0.9%) (0.1%) (1%) 59
4 Aug 2020 Direct Polls Srugim[10] 35 18 16 9 10 7 8 12 5 – – – – – 61
30 Jul 2020 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[11] 33 17 16 12 9 8 8 12 5 – – – – – 62
28 Jul 2020 Panel4All 103 FM[12] 31 19 16 10 9 7 8 13 7 – – – – – 57
23 Jul 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[13] 31 19 15 11 6 7 8 16 7 – – – – – 55
23 Jul 2020 Midgam Channel 12[14] 32 18 15 9 8 8 7 15 8 (1.8%) (0.3%) (0.0%) (0.2%) – 57
15 Jul 2020 Panels Politics 103 FM[15] 34 16 15 9 9 7 9 14 7 – – – – – 59
14 Jul 2020 The Jewish Home splits from Yamina[16]
12 Jul 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[17] 33 19 16 9 7 8 8 13 7 – – – – – 57
10 Jul 2020 Direct Polls –[18] 36 17 16 9 10 7 8 11 6 (1.7%) (2.4%) (0.5%) (0.6%) (0.6%) 62
10 Jul 2020 Panel4All Maariv[19] 36 16 15 10 9 7 9 12 6 – – – – – 62
6 Jul 2020 Midgam N12[20] 37 15 15 11 9 7 8 11 7 (2.1%) (0.4%) (0.9%) (0.2%) – 64
3 Jul 2020 Maagar Mochot 103fm[21] 38 17 15 10 9 8 8 9 6 – – – – – 65
28 Jun 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[22] 38 16 16 9 8 7 8 11 7 – – – – – 62
17 Jun 2020 Direct Polls –[23] 41 15 16 11 10 7 8 7 5 (1.1%) (1.6%) (0.0%) (0.2%) (0.5%) 69
17 Jun 2020 Smith Jerusalem Post[24] 41 15 16 10 9 7 8 8 6 (2.3%) (1.5%) (0.0%) (0.2%) (1.4%) 67
12 Jun 2020 Maagar Mohot 103fm[25] 41 16 15 13 9 8 7 6 5 – – – – – 71
8 Jun 2020 Midgam News 12[26] 40 14 15 12 9 7 9 8 6 (1.9%) (0.4%) (0.4%) (0.5%) – 68
27 May 2020 Panels Politics Maariv/103fm[27] 41 14 15 12 9 8 6 9 6 (1.5%) – – – – 70
17 May 2020 New government is formed
14 May 2020 The Jewish Home unofficially splits from Yamina
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Yesh Atid
–Telem		 Blue &
White		 Joint
List		 Shas UTJ Yisrael
Beiteinu		 Yamina Labor Meretz Derekh
Eretz		 Gesher Otzma
Yehudit
Current seats 36 16 15 15 9 7 7 6 3 3 2 1 –
30 Apr 2020 Direct Polls –[28] 41 11 16[lower-alpha 1] 15 9 8 8 7 [lower-alpha 1] 5 (2.0%) (1.8%) (0.8%)
22-23 Apr 2020 Smith –[29] 41 11 17[lower-alpha 1] 16 10 7 6 7 [lower-alpha 1] 5 (0.4%) (0.4%) (0.4%)
13 Apr 2020 Midgam Channel 12[30] 40 10 19 15 9 7 7 8 (1.1%) 5 (1.4%) (1.4%) (1.9%)
12 Apr 2020 Direct Polls –[31] 38 14 16[lower-alpha 1] 15 9 8 8 7 [lower-alpha 1] 5 (2.85%) (0.93%) (0.60%)
7 Apr 2020 Smith The Jerusalem Post[32] 42 9 18 16 8 7 6 7 (2.2%) 7 (0.3%) (0.9%) (0.9%)
6 Apr 2020 Labor splits from Meretz[33]
29-30 Mar 2020 Smith –[34] 40 11 15[lower-alpha 2] 16 9 7 6 7 9 [lower-alpha 2] – –
29 Mar 2020 Israel Resilience Party and Derekh Eretz split from Yesh Atid and Telem, and keep the name Blue and White[35]
27 Mar 2020 Direct Polls Arutz Sheva[36] 38 16 15[lower-alpha 2] 15 8 7 6 7 8 [lower-alpha 2] (1.3%) (0.65%)
26 Mar 2020 Yesh Atid and Telem unofficially split from Blue and White[37]
23 Mar 2020 Gesher splits from Labor and Meretz[38]
Legend

61 seats are required for a majority in the Knesset.

Note: The composition of the current government does not necessarily determine the exact makeup of the post-election government.

Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White		 Joint
List		 Shas UTJ Labor-
Meretz		 Gesher Yisrael
Beiteinu		 Yamina Otzma
Yehudit		 Gov.
19 Mar 2020 Direct Polls –[39] 40 30 15 8 7 6 (0.41%) 7 7 (0.30%) 62
14–16 Mar 2020 Direct Polls –[40] 39 30 16 8 8 7 (1.75%) 6 6 (0.34%) 61
12 Mar 2020 Midgam Channel 12[2] 37 33 15 9 7 6 7 6 (0.7%) 59
10 Mar 2020 Gesher unofficially splits from Labor and Meretz[1]
2 Mar 2020 Election results[41][42] 36 33 15 9 7 7 7 6 (0.42%) 58

Scenario polls

Eizenkot leading Blue & White
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Yesh Atid
–Telem		 Joint
List		 Blue &
White		 Shas UTJ Yisrael
Beiteinu		 Yamina Meretz
Current seats 36 17 15 14 9 7 7 5 3
6-7 Aug 2020 Midgam Channel 12[6] 31 17 15 12[lower-alpha 3] 8 8 7 16 6

Shulman party
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Yesh Atid
–Telem		 Joint
List		 Blue &
White		 Shas UTJ Yisrael
Beiteinu		 Yamina Meretz Shulman
Current seats 36 17 15 14 9 7 7 6 3 –
17 Jun 2020 Smith Jerusalem Post[43] 40 14[lower-alpha 4] 16 10 9 7 7 7[lower-alpha 5] 6 4
8 Jun 2020 N12 Midgam[44] 38 13 15 11 10 9 7 8 6 5

Prime minister

Due to the political deadlock, Shas chairman and Interior Minister Aryeh Deri suggested direct elections for prime minister.[45] Some opinion pollsters have asked voters which party leader they would prefer as prime minister. Their responses are given as percentages in the tables below.

Various Candidates
Date Polling firm Publisher Netanyahu Lapid Bennett Gantz Neither Don't Know
6 Aug 2020 Kantar Kan 11[9] 37 15 19 10 19 –
30 Jul 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[11] 33 13 12 11 – 31
23 Jul 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[13] 44 16 – 11 – –
23 Jul 2020 Midgam Channel 12[14] 34 15 14 10 22 5

Netanyahu vs Gantz
Date Polling firm Publisher Netanyahu Gantz Neither Don't Know
13 Mar 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[46] 47 36 – 17
12 Mar 2020 Midgam Channel 12[2] 45 33 14 8

Coalition

Some opinion pollsters have asked voters which coalition they would prefer. The tables below list their responses as percentages.

Minority government backed by the Joint List
Date Polling firm Publisher Support Oppose Don't Know
13 Mar 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[46] 31 55 14
General
Date Polling firm Publisher National unity government Right Left Don't Know
Likud-B&W only w/ more parties
13 Mar 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[46] 17 31 26 17 9

Notes
  1. Merger of Blue and White and Labor.
  2. Merger of Blue and White and Derekh Eretz.
  3. In case where Eizenkot runs as Blue & White's leader
  4. In case where Gadi Eizenkot runs as Yesh Atid's No. 2 candidate
  5. In case where Yoaz Hendel runs as part of Yamina

References
  1. "Gesher's Levy-Abekasis may not recommend Gantz to form government – reports". The Times of Israel. 12 March 2020. Retrieved 13 March 2020.
  2. "Poll of Possible 4th Elections: Likud 37, Blue & White 33, Joint List 15; Netanyahu Bloc 59". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. 12 March 2020. Retrieved 13 March 2020.
  3. s:he:חוק הבחירות (דרכי תעמולה)#סעיף 16ה (ח) (in Hebrew)
  4. Anna Barsky (13 August 2020). "סקר "מעריב": המספר הנמוך של נתניהו, ועד כמה לפיד קרוב אליו?". Maariv (in Hebrew). Retrieved 13 August 2020.
  5. Moshe Cohen (10 August 2020). "סקר מעריב: 59 מנדטים בלבד לגוש הימין-חרדים". Maariv (in Hebrew). Retrieved 10 August 2020.
  6. Segal, Amit (7 August 2020). "סקר דרמטי של אולפן שישי עם מועמד מפתיע שמסכן את נתניהו". N12 (in Hebrew). Retrieved 7 August 2020.
  7. "68% say fourth election would be Netanyahu's fault - poll". The Jerusalem Post. 7 August 2020. Retrieved 7 August 2020.
  8. "סקר חדשות 13: הליכוד נחלשת ל-29 מנדטים - ימינה מזנקת ל-19". Channel 13 (in Hebrew). 6 August 2020. Retrieved 7 August 2020.
  9. Keiser, Liel (6 August 2020). "סקר כאן חדשות: הליכוד נחלש ל-30 מנדטים, בנט מתחזק, רק 10% סבורים שגנץ ראוי להיות רה"מ". Kan (in Hebrew). Retrieved 7 August 2020.
  10. "סקר: נתניהו מתאושש; בנט מכפיל את כוחו". Srugim (in Hebrew). 4 August 2020. Retrieved 4 August 2020.
  11. "סקר "ישראל היום" ומכון "מאגר מוחות": 52% מהציבור מאמין כי המוחים אלימים". Israel Hayom (in Hebrew). 30 July 2020. Retrieved 31 July 2020.
  12. Panel4All (29 July 2020). "סקר: הליכוד צונחת". 103FM - האזנה לרדיו און ליין (in Hebrew). Retrieved 2020-07-29.
  13. "TV surveys show Likud sliding, Yamina rising, wide dissatisfaction with gov't". The Times of Israel. 23 July 2020. Retrieved 23 July 2020.
  14. Amit Segal (23 July 2020). "סקר חדשות 12: צניחה של 5 מנדטים לליכוד, חוסר שביעות רצון מובהק מתפקוד נתניהו במשבר". N12 (in Hebrew). Retrieved 23 July 2020.
  15. Panel Politics (15 July 2020). "סקר: הממשלה נכשלה בניהול המשבר". 103 FM (in Hebrew). Retrieved 15 July 2020.
  16. "ועדת הכנסת אישרה את פיצול הרב פרץ מימינה". כיפה (in Hebrew). 2020-07-14. Retrieved 2020-07-29.
  17. Jeremy Saltan (12 July 2020). "22nd Poll of 23rd Knesset: Likud 33, Yesh Atid-Telem 19, Joint List 16, Yamina 13, Blue & White 9". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. Retrieved 12 July 2020.
  18. Direct Polls [@Direct_Polls] (10 July 2020). "את השבוע הזה נתניהו ירצה לשכוח ומהר. הוא היה אחד מהגרועים שלו כראש ממשלה מכהן. הנה מפת המנדטים העדכנית שלנו" (Tweet). Retrieved 11 July 2020 – via Twitter.
  19. Maariv (10 July 2020). "אפקט הגל השני: הליכוד נחלשת, ימינה מתחזקת". Panel4All (in Hebrew). Retrieved 11 July 2020.
  20. Jeremy Saltan (6 July 2020). "19th Poll of 23rd Knesset: Likud 37, Yesh Atid-Telem 15, Joint List 15, Yamina 11, Blue & White 11". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. Retrieved 6 July 2020.
  21. Jeremy Saltan (3 July 2020). "18th Poll of 23rd Knesset: Likud 38, Yesh Atid-Telem 17, Joint List 15, Blue & White 10, Yamina 9, Shas 9". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. Retrieved 3 July 2020.
  22. "Netanyahu's Right-wing Bloc to Win Clear Majority if Israel Holds Another Election, Poll Finds". Haaretz. 28 June 2020. Retrieved 28 June 2020.
  23. Direct Polls [@Direct_Polls] (17 June 2020). "‏בחשבון המנדטים, הליכוד ממשיך להוביל חודש נוסף עם 41 מנדטים, כאשר המשמעות היא שבין 5 ל- 6 מנדטים שהצביעו בעבר לגוש המרכז שמאל, ככל הנראה בעיקר מצביעי תל"ם של בוגי יעלון שלא פחות מ- 4 מחבריה כבר פרשו מהסיעה, עברו לתמוך באופן מגמתי בליכוד ובתוכניתו להחלת הריבונות" (Tweet). Retrieved 17 June 2020 – via Twitter.
  24. Gil Hoffman (17 June 2020). "'Post' poll: Blue and White in free fall; only 27% back a July annexation". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved 17 June 2020.
  25. "Poll: Likud With 41 Seats, Blue and White 13; Right-Wing at 64 | Hamodia.com". Hamodia. 12 June 2020.
  26. N12 (8 June 2020). "Opinion poll of News 12: Huge majority of Likud, Lapid overcame Gantz and new party of independents goes to the Knesset". Retrieved 8 June 2020.
  27. 103FM (27 May 2020). "Opinion poll of 103fm: Netanyahu with 41 seats; Lapid overcame Gantz". Panels Politics. Retrieved 1 May 2020.
  28. Jeremy Saltan (1 May 2020). "11th Poll of Possible 4th Elections: Likud 41, Blue & White-Labor 16, Joint List 15, Yesh Atid-Telem 11; Netanyahu Bloc 65 / Predicted New Coalition 81". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. Retrieved 1 May 2020.
  29. Jeremy Saltan (24 April 2020). "10th Poll of Possible 4th Elections: Likud 41, Blue & White-Labor 17, Joint List 16, Yesh Atid-Telem 11, Shas 10; Netanyahu Bloc 65". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. Retrieved 24 April 2020.
  30. "9th Poll of Possible 4th Elections: Likud 40, Blue & White 19, Joint List 15, Yesh Atid 10, Shas 9, Yamina 8; Netanyahu Bloc 64". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. 13 April 2020. Retrieved 15 April 2020.
  31. "8th Poll of Possible 4th Elections: Likud 38, Blue & White-Labor 16, Joint List 15, Yesh Atid 14, Shas 9". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. 12 April 2020. Retrieved 12 April 2020.
  32. "7th Poll of Possible 4th Elections: Likud 42, Blue & White 18, Joint List 16, Yesh Atid 9; Approval Ratings: 68% Netanyahu, 65% Bennett, 28% Litzman". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. 8 April 2020. Retrieved 9 April 2020.
  33. Gil Hoffman (6 April 2020). "Labor to merge with Benny Gantz's Blue and White party". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved 6 April 2020.
  34. "2nd Poll Since Blue & White Split: Likud 40, Joint List 16, Gantz-Ashkenazi 15, Lapid-Yaalon 11; Future Coalition 78". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. 30 March 2020. Retrieved 31 March 2020.
  35. Raoul Wootliff (29 March 2020). "Knesset panel okays breakup of Blue and White; Gantz keeps name". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 29 March 2020.
  36. "New Poll: Likud 38, Lapid 16, Gantz 15, Joint List 15; New Coalition – 75 MKs". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. 27 March 2020. Retrieved 31 March 2020.
  37. Gil Hoffman (26 March 2020). "Blue and White splitting after Benny Gantz elected Knesset Speaker". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved 26 March 2020.
  38. "You can go your own way: Arrangements Committee approves MK's request to part from Labor-Meretz". The Times of Israel. 23 March 2020. Retrieved 23 March 2020.
  39. "3rd Poll of Possible 4th Elections: Likud 40, Blue & White 30, Joint List 15; Netanyahu Bloc 62". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. 20 March 2020. Retrieved 20 March 2020.
  40. "2nd Poll of Possible 4th Elections: Likud 39, Blue & White 30, Joint List 16; Netanyahu Bloc 61". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. 17 March 2020. Retrieved 17 March 2020.
  41. Arik Bender (5 March 2020). "בחירות 2020: ועדת הבחירות פרסמה תוצאות סופיות, גוש הימין זוכה ל-58 מנדטים". Maariv (in Hebrew). Retrieved 5 March 2020.
  42. "תוצאות האמת של הבחירות לכנסת ה-23". Central Elections Committee (in Hebrew). 4 March 2020. Retrieved 5 March 2020.
  43. "'Post' poll: Blue and White in free fall; only 27% back a July annexation". The Jerusalem Post. 17 June 2020.
  44. Jeremy Saltan (8 June 2020). "13th Poll of 23rd Knesset: Likud 40, Joint List 15, Yesh Atid-Telem 14, Blue & White 12". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. Retrieved 16 June 2020.
  45. "Poll predicts slight edge for Netanyahu over Gantz if direct elections were held". The Times of Israel. 5 November 2019. Retrieved 7 November 2019.
  46. Amnon Lord (13 March 2020). "סקר "ישראל היום": הרוב נגד ממשלת מיעוט". Israel Hayom (in Hebrew). Retrieved 15 March 2020.
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