2021 Senedd election

The next Senedd election is due to be held on Thursday 6 May 2021[1] to elect 60 members to Senedd Cymru – the Welsh Parliament. It will be the sixth general election since the (formerly named) Assembly was established in 1999. The election is due to be held alongside the 2021 United Kingdom local elections and Scottish Parliament election.

2021 Senedd Cymru election

On or before 6 May 2021
All 60 seats to Senedd Cymru – Welsh Parliament 31 seats needed for a majority
Leader Mark Drakeford Paul Davies Adam Price Party Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru Leader since 6 December 2018 6 September 2018 28 September 2018 Leader's seat Cardiff West Preseli Pembrokeshire Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Last election 29 seats 11 seats 12 seats Current seats 29 11 10 Seats needed 2 20 21   Leader Mark Reckless Neil Hamilton Jane Dodds Party Brexit Party UKIP Liberal Democrats Leader since 15 May 2019 26 September 2016 3 November 2017 Leader's seat South Wales East Mid and West Wales not in Senedd Last election New party 7 seats 1 seat Current seats 4 1 1 Seats needed 26 30 30   Leader Neil McEvoy Richard Suchorzewski Party Welsh National Party Abolish the Welsh Assembly Leader since 15 January 2020 11 June 2020 Leader's seat South Wales Central not in Senedd Last election New party 0 seats Current seats 1[lower-alpha 1] 1[lower-alpha 2] Seats needed 30 30
Incumbent First Minister Mark Drakeford Labour

It will be the first election in which 16 and 17 year olds and legally resident foreign nationals are allowed to vote in Wales, the largest extension of the franchise in Wales since 1969. Both changes were a result of the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act 2020.[2]

Eight parties had Assembly Members (AMs)/Members of the Senedd (MSs) in the fifth Assembly/Parliament: Welsh Labour led by First Minister Mark Drakeford, the Welsh Conservatives led by Paul Davies, Plaid Cymru led by Adam Price, the Brexit Party led by Mark Reckless, the UK Independence Party led by Neil Hamilton, the Welsh Liberal Democrats led by Jane Dodds, the Welsh National Party led by Neil McEvoy, and the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party led by Richard Suchorzewski.

Electoral system

In elections for the Senedd, each voter has two votes in the additional member system. The first vote is for a candidate to become the Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote is for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.

In accordance to the Wales Act 2014, a candidate is allowed to stand in both a constituency and a regional list. However, holding a dual mandate with the House of Commons is illegal, meaning a Member of the Senedd cannot also be an MP.

This will be the first election where 16 and 17 year olds can vote, following the introduction of a new law in January 2020.[2]

Background

The 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom was the last of its kind. The newly formed Brexit Party came out on top in Wales. Plaid Cymru, who support full Welsh independence, came second, marking the first time it had beaten Labour in a Wales-wide election.[3] The Brexit Party also formed a parliamentary group in the Assembly made up of the 4 ex-UK Independence Party members, led by Mark Reckless.[4] A snap general election was called for 12 December 2019. Welsh Labour suffered an 8% drop in their vote and they were completely wiped out of North Wales, apart from in Alyn and Deeside. Labour ended up losing 6 parliamentary seats to the Welsh Conservatives in Boris Johnson's victory. These seats included Bridgend, which has been represented on the assembly level by former First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones since the 1999 election. The Conservatives also picked up Brecon and Radnorshire from the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats Jane Dodds.[5]

On 31 January 2020, the United Kingdom left the European Union. This followed a referendum on the matter in which Wales voted to leave the EU.[6] South Wales has been highlighted by many as evidence that Brexit was a cross-party issue, as those areas typically vote overwhelmingly for Labour. Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, and Caerphilly all voted overwhelmingly in favour of Brexit, but are all represented in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by Labour MPs.

Plaid campaigned for a remain vote in the 2016 referendum on the UK's membership of the EU.[7] Plaid later supported, during the final stages of Brexit process, a second referendum on the matter.[8][9] Plaid argued that there should be a referendum on Welsh independence after Brexit, so that Wales could apply for EU membership.[10] A June 2020 YouGov/ITV Cymru poll concluded that 25% were in favour of independence and 54% opposed. The same poll found that 22% of respondants wanted no devolution in Wales, and that 25% were for abolition of the Senedd, with 48% opposed to abolition.[11][12]

Vaughan Gething (Health Minister) said to ITV Wales on 17 May 2020 that it is "possible" that 2021 Senedd Election may not be allowed to happen, because of the uncertainty of the Covid-19 pandemic. [13]

It was announced on 29 June 2020 that the First Minister has set up a group with representatives from all of the main parties to look at the arrangements that might have to be in place if Covid-19 restrictions are still required. It will look at campaigning and voting, gathering "views over the summer so that by September, any changes the group feels would be beneficial can be considered and taken forward".[14]

Retiring members

The following MSs will not run for re-election:

Constituency/Region	Departing MS	Party
Bridgend	Carwyn Jones[15]		Welsh Labour
South Wales Central	David Melding[16]		Welsh Conservatives
Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Dafydd Elis-Thomas[17]		Independent
Camarthen West and South Pembrokeshire	Angela Burns [18]		Welsh Conservatives

Target seats

Below are listed all the constituencies which require a swing of less than 10% from the 2016 result to change hands.

Labour targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2016		Majority	Swing to gain	Labour's place 2016	Result
1	Aberconwy		Conservative	1,609	3.35	3rd
2	Camarthen West and South Pembrokeshire		Conservative	3,373	5.75	2nd
3	Preseli Pembrokeshire		Conservative	3,930	6.8	2nd
4	Rhondda		Plaid Cymru	3,459	7.35	2nd
5	Monmouth		Conservative	5,147	8.2	2nd

Plaid Cymru targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2016		Majority	Swing to gain	PC's place 2016	Result
1	Llanelli		Labour	382	0.65	2nd
2	Blaenau Gwent		Labour	650	1.55	2nd
3	Aberconwy		Conservative	754	1.7	2nd
4	Cardiff West		Labour	1,176	1.85	2nd
5	Caerphilly		Labour	1,575	2.9	2nd
6	Neath		Labour	2,923	5.75	2nd

Conservative targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2016		Majority	Swing to gain	Con's place 2016	Result
1	Vale of Glamorgan		Labour	777	1.05	2nd
2	Vale of Clwyd		Labour	768	1.55	2nd
3	Gower		Labour	1,829	3.05	2nd
4	Wrexham		Labour	1,325	3.25	2nd
5	Cardiff North		Labour	3,667	4.9	2nd
6	Clwyd South		Labour	3,016	6.8	2nd
7	Delyn		Labour	3,582	7.7	2nd
8	Bridgend		Labour	5,623	10.45	2nd

Liberal Democrat targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2016		Majority	Swing to gain	LD's place 2016	Result
1	Cardiff Central		Labour	817	1.55	2nd
2	Ceredigion		Plaid Cymru	2,408	4.1	2nd
3	Montgomeryshire		Conservative	3,339	7.05	2nd

Constituency nominations

NB: MSs in office (i.e. incumbents) before the election are bolded. Winners are highlighted with party colours.

Constituency	Conservative	Labour	Plaid Cymru	Lib Dem	Brexit Party	UKIP	Green	Others
Aberavon		David Rees
Aberconwy	Janet Finch-Saunders		Aaron Wynne	Jason Edwards
Alyn and Deeside		Jack Sargeant
Arfon			Siân Gwenllian
Blaenau Gwent		Alun Davies	Peredur Owen Griffiths[19]
Brecon and Radnorshire				Kirsty Williams
Bridgend		Sarah Murphy[20]
Caerphilly		Hefin David	Delyth Jewell
Cardiff Central		Jenny Rathbone	Wiliam Rees
Cardiff North	Joel Williams	Julie Morgan		Rhys Taylor [21]
Cardiff South and Penarth		Vaughan Gething	Nasir Adam[22]	Alex Wilson [23]
Cardiff West		Mark Drakeford	Rhys ab Owen[24]	Heath Marshall [25]				Neil McEvoy (Welsh National Party)
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr			Adam Price	Leena Farhat
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire			Rhys Thomas[26]	Alistair Cameron [27]
Ceredigion			Elin Jones
Clwyd South		Ken Skates
Clwyd West	Darren Millar		Elin Walker Jones
Cynon Valley		Vikki Howells
Delyn		Hannah Blythyn
Dwyfor Meirionnydd			Mabon ap Gwynfor [28]	Steve Churchman
Gower		Rebecca Evans	John Davies
Islwyn		Rhianon Passmore	Rhys Mills [29]
Llanelli		Lee Waters	Helen Mary Jones [30]	Chris Passmore
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney		Dawn Bowden
Monmouth	Nick Ramsay			Jo Watkins [31]
Montgomeryshire	Russell George
Neath		Jeremy Miles	Sioned Williams
Newport East		John Griffiths		John Miller [32]
Newport West		Jayne Bryant		Mike Hamilton [33]
Ogmore		Huw Irranca-Davies	Luke Fletcher [34]
Pontypridd		Mick Antoniw	Heledd Fychan
Preseli Pembrokeshire	Paul Davies		Cris Tomos[35]
Rhondda		Elizabeth Buffy Williams [36]	Leanne Wood
Swansea East		Mike Hedges
Swansea West		Julie James	Dai Lloyd	Chloe Hutchinson
Torfaen		Lynne Neagle
Vale of Clwyd	Gareth Davies	Ann Jones
Vale of Glamorgan		Jane Hutt
Wrexham		Lesley Griffiths	Carrie Harper
Ynys Môn			Rhun ap Iorwerth

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd election

The constituency vote is shown as semi-transparent lines, while the regional vote is shown in full lines.

Graph of the evolution of the opinion polls for the 2021 Welsh Parliament election (the right border represents the last possible day for the election to be held). Lines represent local regressions (LOESS) with a span of 0.5.

See also

• List of political parties in Wales
• Next Scottish Parliament election

Notes

1. The party's sole representative in the Senedd, Neil McEvoy, was elected as a member of Plaid Cymru in 2016, before leaving the party to become an independent, then created the Welsh National Party in 2020.
2. The party's sole representative in the Senedd, Gareth Bennett was elected for UKIP in 2016, before leaving to become an independent, then joined the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party in 2020.

References

1. "Wales Bill (Dates)" (PDF). publications.parliament.uk. Retrieved 7 October 2016.
2. "16 and 17 year olds get right to vote - a historic day for democracy in Wales". Senedd Cymru. 27 November 2019. Retrieved 24 December 2019.
3. "Brexit Party tops European poll in Wales". 27 May 2019 – via www.bbc.com.
4. "Assembly members join forces with Farage". BBC News. 15 May 2019. Retrieved 25 March 2020.
5. "Tories claim big scalps in Wales election results". 13 December 2019 – via www.bbc.com.
6. Perraudin, Frances (22 September 2019). "English people living in Wales tilted it towards Brexit, research finds" – via www.theguardian.com.
7. "Plaid: Stay in EU to solve its problems". BBC. 10 February 2016. Archived from the original on 31 May 2018. Retrieved 21 June 2018.
8. "Welsh Senedd votes to back a People's Vote". Plaid Cymru (The Party of Wales). Archived from the original on 12 January 2020.
9. "Plaid Cymru: European Election Manifesto 2019" (PDF). Retrieved 26 May 2019. A vote for Plaid Cymru in the European elections on 23 May will be a vote for Wales to stay inside the European Union
10. Mosalski, Ruth (26 April 2019). "'Wales should have an independence vote' say Plaid Cymru". WalesOnline. Retrieved 5 April 2020.
11. Awan-Scully, Roger (5 June 2020). "With Welsh independence polling higher than ever it is no longer a fringe movement". Nation.Cymru.
12. Shipton, Martin (6 June 2020). "Quarter of voters in Wales now in favour of Welsh independence". WalesOnline.
13. ""Possible" Senedd elections may not happen next May says health minister". ITV News. Retrieved 1 July 2020.
14. Williams, James (29 June 2020). "Covid-19 impact on 2021 election to be discussed". BBC News. Retrieved 1 July 2020.
15. "Wales' First Minister Carwyn Jones to leave assembly in 2021". BBC News. 11 May 2018. Retrieved 7 July 2019.
16. "Wales' Welsh Conservative David Melding to stand down at 2021 Senedd election". BBC News. 28 February 2020. Retrieved 28 February 2020.
17. "Lord Elis-Thomas vows not to stand in 2021 election". BBC News. 12 April 2020. Retrieved 12 April 2020.
18. "Senior Conservative steps down from Senedd". BBC News. 16 July 2020. Retrieved 16 July 2020.
19. "Candidate - Peredur Owen Griffiths". Blaenau Gwent - Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales. Retrieved 12 July 2020.
20. "Sarah Murphy 🌹 (@sarah4bridgend) | Twitter". twitter.com.
21. "Cllr Rhys Taylor". Welsh Liberal Democrats.
22. "Our Senedd candidate for Cardiff South & Penarth, @Nazplaidcymru told us of the impact of the #BlackLivesMatter movement". Twitter. Retrieved 12 July 2020.
23. "Alex Wilson". Welsh Liberal Democrats.
24. April 16 2020, Posted on; Pm, 4:06. "Rhys ab Owen - Cardiff West". Plaid Cymru Cardiff. Retrieved 12 July 2020.CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
25. "Selection Tracker". Welsh Liberal Democrats.
26. "Dr Thomas, who was chosen as the Plaid Cymru candidate to fight the Carmarthen West and South Pembs constituency at UK and Welsh level". Tenby Today. Retrieved 13 May 2020.
27. "Alistair Cameron". Welsh Liberal Democrats.
28. "Plaid Cymru pick Gwynfor Evans' grandson to contest Dwyfor Meirionnydd". BBC News. Retrieved 7 July 2019.
29. "Plaid Cymru announce Rhys Mills as candidate for Islwyn". South Wales Argus. Retrieved 13 May 2020.
30. "Helen Mary Jones selected as Plaid-Cymru's Llanelli candidate". Llanelli Online. Retrieved 13 May 2020.
31. "Jo Watkins". Welsh Liberal Democrats.
32. "Newport East". Welsh Liberal Democrats.
33. "Mike Hamilton". Welsh Liberal Democrats.
34. "Parties begin selection process for 2021 Senedd Election". Oggy Blog Ogwr. Retrieved 13 May 2020.
35. "Cris selected as Plaid's Preseli Pembrokeshire Senedd and Westminster candidate". County Echo. Retrieved 12 July 2020.
36. "👏 Llongyfarchiadau @buffywills — selected as our @WelshLabour candidate for Rhondda in next year's @SeneddWales elections". Twitter. 13 July 2020.