3
Assuming disparate groups of people live within an indefinitely quarantined area, and initially have a vague notion of someday rejoining the rest of the world, how long would it take for people to decide the "indefinite quarantine" has gone on long enough that they need to plan for the future?
Is there anthropological precedent for this?
2Size of quarantine area? Number of people? Reason for quarantine and conditions of removal? What "future" are you talking about - that of outside quarantine or never getting out? What items of planning for future (what meal to have this evening? What crops to grow? What governance to put in place?) This is just too vague right now. – Keeta - reinstate Monica – 2018-10-12T18:48:37.053
1that would heavily depend on who's inside, and definition of society. People from same law-abiding country or with large share of military or police will establish order from the start. Hugely different and historically hostile groups will continue fighting until only one group remains. – Bald Bear – 2018-10-12T18:49:33.647
You might want to consider North Korea and Iran for some background perspective and for forming your scope. – Justin Thyme – 2018-10-12T18:55:04.680
You have to consider resources. If there is a lot of resources readily available in the form of provisions or farmland, people will not worry too much about the future. If they are just barely getting by, they will have to work to start construction to provide for what they don't have, be it shelter, food, water, electricity, health facilities, or another resource. – John Locke – 2018-10-12T19:10:09.080
3I feel like the most important impact on the answer is the definition of a functional society. Has anyone seen one yet? Anyone? – Tim B II – 2018-10-13T04:28:42.220
@JustinThyme what possible relevance does North Korea, much less Iran, have to the question? – ubadub – 2018-10-13T04:54:48.917
@ ubadub Both have been isolated by international sanctions, and both demonstrate a lot of characteristics of a society that has been economically quarantined. Both countries have adopted survival techniques based on these economic quarantines extending for a very long time. – Justin Thyme – 2018-10-13T16:37:14.267
1@Tim B II Does a society that has been in continuous existence for 40,000 years count? The irony is, this society WAS quarantined from the rest of the world. Maybe that is why it survived for so long. The indigenous isolated societies in Australia. – Justin Thyme – 2018-10-13T16:42:24.053
@JustinThyme you said it right - societies. There were certainly wars (or at least conflicts) between the various groups during that time, and one could argue that the reason their societal structures survived so long had more to do with the abundance of many of their natural resources than their societal structure. I don't think longevity is always a measure of the robustness or even veracity of a society when there are other considerations (like resource availability) at play. In fact, isn't that what this very question is about? – Tim B II – 2018-10-13T23:18:16.983
@Tim B II I was commenting more on your use of the word 'functional'. Somehow, I suspect that anything that lasts for 40,000 years definitely has to be functional. – Justin Thyme – 2018-10-13T23:27:10.937
@JustinThyme Oh, I see. That does make a certain amount of sense and I see the point. If you look at functional in terms of 'works' then I agree that simple societal structures in stable environments (that offer sustainable resources) will be functional but my own personal bias comes in to play here I guess because I see a society that never changes as more stagnant than functional, but I shan't say more for risk of causing offence, which is not my intent. Suffice it to say that in my personal view a society is only functional if it can withstand at least some change from external sources. – Tim B II – 2018-10-14T02:38:52.187
@Tim B II Point taken. By that criteria, you are correct in that every society has at least partially failed due to internal and/or in the case of Australian aboriginals, external stress. – Justin Thyme – 2018-10-14T03:28:13.650