Washington and Lee Mock Convention

Washington and Lee Mock Convention is a simulated presidential nominating convention and is held every four years, during the early stages of the U.S. Presidential Primary, at Washington and Lee University. Although Oberlin College has the distinction of having the oldest student-run mock political convention in the country, W&L's convention has the reputation for being the most accurate.[1] It often receives gavel-to-gavel coverage on C-SPAN.

AbbreviationMock Con
Formation1908
TypeNonprofit Organization
Location
Membership
95% of the Student body
Websitewww.mockconvention.com

The convention simulates the nomination process for whichever party does not currently hold the presidency. Since its inception in 1908, the student body has been correct 20 out of 26 times, with only two incorrect predictions since 1948.[2] Since 1948, they have never incorrectly predicted the Republican nominee for president.

The 2008 Mock Convention projected Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee for that election year. The Mock Convention was mistaken, however, as Barack Obama was eventually elected as the nominee.[3] The 2012 Mock Convention projected Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee.[2] In 2016, the Mock Convention projected Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee on the first ballot.[4] In 2020, the Washington and Lee Mock Convention predicted incorrectly again, and predicted Bernie Sanders would win the nomination, after what was, in reality, only insignificant victories in New Hampshire and Iowa. Vice President Joe Biden would win the nomination.

Organization history

In the spring of 1908, William Jennings Bryan, a front-runner for the Democratic presidential candidacy, announced a visit to Lexington, Virginia, arousing interest in Washington and Lee's already political-minded campus. To capitalize on the furor, The Forum, W&L's leading political organization at the time, organized a replica of the upcoming Democratic Convention. The event was an enormous success, owing to the highly political student body: according to the Lexington Gazette, "The young gentlemen entered into the meeting with the zest of seasoned politicians plus the enthusiasm of collegians". After fierce (and occasionally chaotic) debate, the campus correctly predicted Bryan to be the 1908 Democratic nominee.

With the exception of the 1920 and 1944 elections, the Mock Convention has occurred every four years since the original 1908 election. The state delegations are known to go to great lengths for accuracy: the 1952 state chair for California, David Constine, developed a correspondence with California Governor Earl Warren, one of the leading candidates. As it rose in prominence, the convention gathered an impressive docket of speakers, including Harry S. Truman and former Vice President Alben Barkley, who died in the midst of a speech at the 1956 convention.

In addition to the convention itself, W&L hosts a large number of formal and informal celebrations in honor of the Convention and its honored guests, including parades, parties, and balls. These events have seen some of the Convention's most famous stories. In 1972, then-governor Jimmy Carter's speech at Mock Con was missed by his own press secretary, who had been celebrating with a group of W&L students and alumni. Before his famous MTV appearance, Bill Clinton played an impromptu concert for students at an off-campus party for the 1988 Convention. By 1996, the Mock Convention was acknowledged by the Washington Post as "one of the nation's oldest and most prestigious mock conventions."

Prediction history
gollark: I'd hope that mostly they're not configured that way.
gollark: I don't think a GPU would help.
gollark: I think most containers don't come with init systems in them.
gollark: I would run it, but it's a bit problematic that the network would break if my server were to fail or whatever.
gollark: How old is too old?

References
  1. Schwab, Nikki (17 January 2008). "At Mock Convention, Washington and Lee Students Showcase Their Uncanny Knack for Picking Presidential Candidates". US News and World Report.
  2. "Our Story: Accurately predicting the presidential nominee since 1908".
  3. Schwab, Nikki (28 January 2008). "Clinton Wins Student Mock Convention". US News and World Report.
  4. Fandos, Nicholas (13 February 2016). "Donald Trump Will Be GOP Nominee, Students' Mock Convention Says". New York Times.
Year Party Mock Convention Nominee National Convention Nominee Election Winner
1908DemBryanBryanTaft
1912DemHarmonWilsonWilson
1916RepHughesHughesWilson
1920Repnot heldHardingHarding
1924DemDavisDavisCoolidge
1928DemSmithSmithHoover
1932DemRooseveltRooseveltRoosevelt
1936RepVandenbergLandonRoosevelt
1940RepMcNaryWillkieRoosevelt
1944Repnot heldDeweyRoosevelt
1948RepVandenbergDeweyTruman
1952RepEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhower
1956DemStevensonStevensonEisenhower
1960DemKennedyKennedyKennedy
1964RepGoldwaterGoldwaterJohnson
1968RepNixonNixonNixon
1972DemKennedyMcGovernNixon
1976DemCarterCarterCarter
1980RepReaganReaganReagan
1984DemMondaleMondaleReagan
1988DemDukakisDukakisG.H.W. Bush
1992DemClintonClintonClinton
1996RepDoleDoleClinton
2000RepG.W. BushG.W. BushG.W. Bush
2004DemKerryKerryG.W. Bush
2008DemClintonObamaObama
2012RepRomneyRomneyObama
2016RepTrumpTrumpTrump
2020DemSandersBiden
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