New normal

A new normal is a state to which an economy, society, etc. settles following a crisis, when this differs from the situation that prevailed prior to the start of the crisis. The term has been used following the financial crisis of 2007-2008, the aftermath of the 2008–2012 global recession, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The term arose from the context of cautioning the belief of economists and policy makers that industrial economies would revert to their most recent means post the 2007-2008 financial crisis.[1]

The 29 January 2009, Philadelphia City Paper quoted Paul Glover (activist) referring to the need for "new normals" in community development, when introducing his cover story "Prepare for the Best".[2]

The 2010 Per Jacobsson lecture delivered by the head of PIMCO, Mohamed A. El-Erian, was titled "Navigating the New Normal in Industrial Countries". In the lecture El-Erian stated that "Our use of the term was an attempt to move the discussion beyond the notion that the crisis was a mere flesh wound...instead the crisis cut to the bone. It was the inevitable result of an extraordinary, multiyear period which was anything but normal".[1]

El-Erian's lecture cites a 18 May 2008 Bloomberg News article written by journalists Rich Miller and Matthew Benjamin for first using the term: "Post-Subprime Economy Means Subpar Growth as New Normal in U.S."

The term has subsequently been used by ABC News,[3] BBC News,[4] the New York Times, and formed part of a question by Candy Crowley, the moderator of the Second U.S. presidential debate of 2012.[5]

History

Author Robert A. Heinlein used the phrase in his 1966 novel, The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress, with a character telling lunar colonists:

Citizens, requests may reach you through your comrade neighbors. I hope you will comply willingly; it will speed the day when I can bow out and life can get back to normal — a new normal, free of the Authority, free of guards, free of troops stationed on us, free of passports and searches and arbitrary arrests.[6]

Since 2012, China's economy has shown a marked slowdown, with growth rates declining from double digit levels (before the 2007-2009 financial crisis) to around 7% in 2014. In 2014, a statement by Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, indicated that China was entering a 'new normal' (Chinese: 新常态).[7] This term was subsequently popularised by the press and came to refer to expectations of 7% growth rates in China for the foreseeable future. It was indicative of the Chinese government's anticipation of moderate but perhaps more stable economic growth in the medium-to-long term.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the term new normal has an increasing use to refer the changes of human behavior changes during or after this pandemic. Doctors at the University of Kansas Health System anticipate that the pandemic will change daily life for most people. This includes limiting person-to-person contact, like handshakes and hugs. Additionally, maintaining distance from others or social distancing, in general, will likely stick around.[8]

References
  1. Navigating the New Normal in Industrial Countries. International Monetary Fund. 15 December 2010. pp. 12–. ISBN 978-1-4552-1168-5. Retrieved 18 October 2012.
  2. "Gotta Find a Better Way", Philadelphia City Paper, January 29, 2009 paragraph 3
  3. Gomstyn, Alice (15 June 2009). "Finance: Americans adapt to the 'New Normal'". ABC News.
  4. "Is America's high jobless rate the new normal?". BBC News Online. 10 August 2012.
  5. Johnson, Glen (16 October 2012). "Candidates aggressive in 2nd debate". Boston Globe.
  6. Robert A. Heinlein, The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress (1966), p. 152.
  7. Saggu, A. & Anukoonwattaka, W. (2015). "China's 'New Normal': Challenges Ahead for Asia-Pacific Trade". United Nations ESCAP. SSRN 2628613. Missing or empty |url= (help)
  8. "The 'new normal' after coronavirus". (Geographically restricted)
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