Inferential confusion

Inferential confusion is a "form of processing information in which an individual accepts a remote possibility based only on subjective evidence".[1] It can also be defined as a meta-cognitive confusion[2], leading a person to confuse "an imagined possibility with an actual probability".[3][2]

It shares similarities with thought–action fusion and is associated with OCD symptoms.[4][5][6]

Inferential confusion and psychopathology

Inferential confusion, i.e. “mistaking an imagined possibility for a real probability”, becomes pathological when the individual “crosses over from the real into the imaginary treating the imagined possibility as if it were real”.[7]

Several studies on inferential confusion and OCD have shown that inferential confusion is involved in OCD.[8]

gollark: Why? It would cost more.
gollark: But then its electronics will short and fail.
gollark: What if it catches fire?
gollark: What if it gets too distracted solving the Collatz conjecture to take over all reality?
gollark: GPT-6 or so would be able to do it, by something regression.

References
  1. Wu KD, Aardema F, O'Connor KP (August 2009). "Inferential confusion, obsessive beliefs, and obsessive-compulsive symptoms: a replication and extension". J Anxiety Disord. 23 (6): 746–52. doi:10.1016/j.janxdis.2009.02.017. PMID 19345557.
  2. Aardema F, O'Connor KP, Emmelkamp PM, Marchand A, Todorov C (March 2005). "Inferential confusion in obsessive-compulsive disorder: the inferential confusion questionnaire". Behav Res Ther. 43 (3): 293–308. doi:10.1016/j.brat.2004.02.003. PMID 15680927.
  3. Wong SF, Grisham JR (April 2017). "Inverse reasoning processes in obsessive-compulsive disorder". J Anxiety Disord. 47: 75–82. doi:10.1016/j.janxdis.2016.12.005. PMID 28057396.
  4. N.A.R. Goods, C.S. Rees, S.J. Egan & R.T. Kane (2014) The Relationship Between Magical Thinking, Inferential Confusion and Obsessive–Compulsive Symptoms, Cognitive Behaviour Therapy, 43:4, 342-350, DOI: 10.1080/16506073.2014.941393
  5. Frederick Aardema, Kieron P. O'Connor & Paul M. G. Emmelkamp (2006) Inferential Confusion and Obsessive Beliefs in Obsessive‐Compulsive Disorder, Cognitive Behaviour Therapy, 35:3, 138-147, DOI: 10.1080/16506070600621922
  6. Aardema, F., Wu, K.D., Careau, Y. et al. The Expanded Version of the Inferential Confusion Questionnaire: Further Development and Validation in Clinical and Non-Clinical Samples. J Psychopathol Behav Assess 32, 448–462 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10862-009-9157-x
  7. Kieron O'Connor; Frederick Aardema (17 November 2011). Clinician's Handbook for Obsessive Compulsive Disorder: Inference-Based Therapy. John Wiley & Sons. pp. 96–. ISBN 978-1-119-95499-6.
  8. Kieron O'Connor; Frederick Aardema; Marie-Claude Pélissier (24 June 2005). Beyond Reasonable Doubt: Reasoning Processes in Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder and Related Disorders. John Wiley & Sons. pp. 130–. ISBN 978-0-470-86878-2.

Further reading
  • Wong, S. F., & Grisham, J. R. (2018). Factors leading to immersion in obsessions. Journal of Experimental Psychopathology. Factors leading to immersion in obsessions
  • Aardema, Frederick & O'Connor, Kieron. (2003). Seeing White Bears That Are Not There: Inference Processes in Obsessions. Journal of Cognitive Psychotherapy. 17. 23-37. 10.1891/jcop.17.1.23.58270.
  • Vladimir Kalinin (2014). Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder: The Old and the New Problems. BoD – Books on Demand. ISBN 978-953-51-1238-9.
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