Gary Shilling

A. Gary Shilling is an American financial analyst and commentator who appears on a regular basis in publications such as Forbes magazine, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. He is president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., Inc.,[1] editor of A. Gary Shilling's Insight, and member of The Nihon Keizai Shimbun[2] Board of Economists. He is featured frequently on business shows on radio and television, and as a recognised orator, addresses conventions of global business groups like the Young Presidents' Organization. He was awarded a bachelor's degree in physics from Amherst College, and a PhD in economics from Stanford University. He has worked for Thornhill Securities, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Merrill Lynch, and White Weld & Co., and Standard Oil Co NJ.[3]

In the spring of 1969, he was one of only a few analysts who correctly envisioned the recession at year's end,[4] and was almost a lone voice in 1973, when he forecast a monolithic international inventory-building fling, followed by the first significant recession since the Great Depression.

In the late 1970s, while most analysts presumed that waxing inflation would go on unabated, Shilling was the first to predict that America's infirm political climate would impede it.[5] He also foresaw various dangerous economic readjustment problems and a shift in investment strategy from a preference for tangible assets to an increased emphasis on stocks and bonds.

In June 2011, he predicted a 20% drop in housing in 2012 with a resulting global recession.[6] In October 2012 he predicted a global recession in 2013. [7]

In August 2015, he predicted that the price of oil "is headed for $10 to $20 per barrel" (it was $43/barrel at the time) due to higher productivity through fracking and OPEC not limiting production.[8]

Although cited frequently by various outlets as an expert, his accuracy has been called into question. According to reporting[9] by CBS News, Shilling's predictions were found to have a 38% accuracy rating, much worse than random chance, by an analysis[10] completed by CXO Advisory Group.

References
  1. http://www.agaryshilling.com/
  2. https://www.cnbc.com/id/24731126/
  3. http://cfaboston.org/wcm/_Programs_and_Events/BSAS_Asset_Allocation_Seminar/Gary_Shilling_Bio.aspx
  4. https://www.cnbc.com/id/24731126/
  5. http://www.allamericanspeakers.com/celebritytalentbios/A.-Gary-Shilling
  6. https://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/20-drop-housing-cause-recession-2012-says-gary-161445494.html
  7. https://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/time-stocks-because-global-recession-likely-gary-shilling-160612663.html
  8. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-08-14/here-s-why-supply-and-demand-means-30-oil
  9. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-are-the-most-least-accurate-stock-gurus/
  10. https://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/


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