3
At 48 bits, this would seem reasonably safe: you would need 751 devices on a network to have a 1/1 billion probability of a collision, and 751 devices with entirely layer 2 connections are rare -- usually there is a layer 3 router in between somewhere. And a switch whose CAM table is limited to 25000 entries would not support more than a 1/1 million probability of collision, if it were ever used close to capacity.
What are the motivations behind the current scheme of MAC address administration that address a concern not solved by random MAC addresses?
1Probability != Assured. As Spiff already said, PRNG can be a real pain. Relaying on a PRNG to always generate a new (unique(!)) number is a mistake, many people always confuse randomness with uniqueness or any guarantees that it does not repeat (at least many people with questions about PRNG on SO do that). – Bobby – 2013-06-21T07:58:38.370
@Bobby: Why can't we rely on PRNGs for that? Owen's math is accurate and indicates that we can assume the addresses to be unique with great certainty. – Marcks Thomas – 2013-06-21T10:01:21.080
1@MarcksThomas: Because randomness is not predictable (well, pseudo-randomness is, but that doesn't apply here) and does not carry a guarantee for uniqueness. The sequence
8 5 5 5 6 5 7
is as just random as the sequence1 2 9 5 6 3 8
. What I wanted to say is, that "unique with great certainty" is not "unique", you have a great certainty that it will not collide...but it is not guaranteed. Many people get this wrong and their systems fail afterwards because they did not take collisions into account. – Bobby – 2013-06-21T10:46:09.597