do-release-upgrade not using old-releases when upgrading from Ubuntu 10.04 to 12.04?

Question

Take pity on me, I'm trying to climb the upgrade ladder all the way from 10.04 to 16.04. First step is to get to 12.04.

I've updated my /etc/apt/sources.list to use old-releases:

## main & restricted repositories
deb http://old-releases.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/ lucid main restricted
deb-src http://old-releases.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/ lucid main restricted

deb http://old-releases.ubuntu.com/ubuntu lucid-updates main restricted
deb-src http://old-releases.ubuntu.com/ubuntu lucid-updates main restricted

deb http://old-releases.ubuntu.com/ubuntu lucid-security main restricted
deb-src http://old-releases.ubuntu.com/ubuntu lucid-security main restricted

## universe repositories - uncomment to enable
deb http://old-releases.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/ lucid universe
deb-src http://old-releases.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/ lucid universe

deb http://old-releases.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/ lucid-updates universe
deb-src http://old-releases.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/ lucid-updates universe

deb http://old-releases.ubuntu.com/ubuntu lucid-security universe
deb-src http://old-releases.ubuntu.com/ubuntu lucid-security universe

apt-get update and apt-get upgrade work fine with this change.

However, when I try to upgrade to 12.04 via do-release-upgrade it fails with the following spew (see below). Fishy thing seems to be that it's still trying to hit archive URLs instead of old-releases URLs. Should those be old-releases? Is there any way to force the system to look there instead of archive?

$ do-release-upgrade

WARNING:root:estimate_kernel_size_in_boot() returned '0'?

Reading cache

Checking package manager
Reading package lists... Done
Building dependency tree
Reading state information... Done
Building data structures... Done
WARNING: Failed to read mirror file
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com lucid-updates Release.gpg
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid Release.gpg
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates Release.gpg
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security Release.gpg
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com lucid-updates Release
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid Release
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates Release
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/main Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security Release
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/main Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/main Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/restricted Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/main Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/restricted Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/universe Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/universe Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/main Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/restricted Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/main Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/restricted Sources
Err http://archive.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/main Packages
  404  Not Found [IP: 91.189.88.149 80]
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/universe Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/universe Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/main Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/restricted Packages   
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/main Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/restricted Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/universe Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/universe Sources
Fetched 0B in 0s (0B/s)
ERROR:root:IOError/SystemError in cache.update(): 'W:Failed to fetch http://archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/dists/lucid-updates/main/binary-i386/Packages.gz  404  Not Found [IP: 91.189.88.149 80]
, E:Some index files failed to download, they have been ignored, or old ones used instead.'. Retrying (currentRetry: 0)
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid Release.gpg
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates Release.gpg
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security Release.gpg
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com lucid-updates Release.gpg
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid Release
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates Release
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com lucid-updates Release
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security Release
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/main Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/main Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/restricted Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/main Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/restricted Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/universe Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/universe Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/main Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/restricted Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/main Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/restricted Sources
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/main Packages
Err http://archive.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/main Packages
  404  Not Found [IP: 91.189.88.149 80]
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/universe Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/universe Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/main Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/restricted Packages   
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/main Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/restricted Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/universe Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/universe Sources
Fetched 0B in 0s (0B/s)
ERROR:root:IOError/SystemError in cache.update(): 'W:Failed to fetch http://archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/dists/lucid-updates/main/binary-i386/Packages.gz  404  Not Found [IP: 91.189.88.149 80]
, E:Some index files failed to download, they have been ignored, or old ones used instead.'. Retrying (currentRetry: 1)
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com lucid-updates Release.gpg
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid Release.gpg
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates Release.gpg
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security Release.gpg
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com lucid-updates Release
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid Release
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates Release
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/main Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security Release
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/main Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/main Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/restricted Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/main Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/restricted Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/universe Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/universe Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/main Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/restricted Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/main Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/restricted Sources
Err http://archive.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/main Packages
  404  Not Found [IP: 91.189.88.149 80]
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/universe Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/universe Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/main Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/restricted Packages   
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/main Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/restricted Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/universe Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/universe Sources
Fetched 0B in 0s (0B/s)
ERROR:root:IOError/SystemError in cache.update(): 'W:Failed to fetch http://archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/dists/lucid-updates/main/binary-i386/Packages.gz  404  Not Found [IP: 91.189.88.149 80]
, E:Some index files failed to download, they have been ignored, or old ones used instead.'. Retrying (currentRetry: 2)
ERROR:root:doUpdate() failed completely
Reading package lists... Done
Building dependency tree
Reading state information... Done
Building data structures... Done
Fetched 0B in 0s (0B/s)
WARNING:root:estimate_kernel_size_in_boot() returned '0'?

Reading cache

Checking package manager
Reading package lists... Done
Building dependency tree
Reading state information... Done
Building data structures... Done
Ign http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid InRelease
Ign http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates InRelease
Ign http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security InRelease
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid Release.gpg
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates Release.gpg
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security Release.gpg
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid Release
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates Release
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security Release
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/main Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/restricted Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/universe Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/main i386 Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/restricted i386 Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/universe i386 Packages
Ign http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/main TranslationIndex
Ign http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/restricted TranslationIndex
Ign http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/universe TranslationIndex
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/main Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/restricted Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/universe Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/main i386 Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/restricted i386 Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/universe i386 Packages 
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/main TranslationIndex  
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/restricted TranslationIndex
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-updates/universe TranslationIndex
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/main Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/restricted Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/universe Sources
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/main i386 Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/restricted i386 Packages
Hit http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/universe i386 Packages
Ign http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/main TranslationIndex 
Ign http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/restricted TranslationIndex
Ign http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/universe TranslationIndex
Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/main Translation-en

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/restricted Translation-en

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/universe Translation-en

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/main Translation-en   

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/restricted Translation-en

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/universe Translation-en

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/main Translation-en

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/restricted Translation-en

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/universe Translation-en

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/main Translation-en   

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/restricted Translation-en

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/universe Translation-en

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/main Translation-en

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/restricted Translation-en

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/universe Translation-en

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/main Translation-en 


Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/restricted Translation-en

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/universe Translation-en

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/main Translation-en

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/restricted Translation-en

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/universe Translation-en

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/main Translation-en   

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/restricted Translation-en

Err http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/universe Translation-en

Ign http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/main Translation-en
Ign http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/restricted Translation-en
Ign http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid/universe Translation-en
Ign http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/main Translation-en   
Ign http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/restricted Translation-en
Ign http://old-releases.ubuntu.com lucid-security/universe Translation-en
Fetched 0 B in 0s (0 B/s)
Reading package lists... Done
Building dependency tree
Reading state information... Done
Building data structures... Done

Updating repository information
WARNING: Failed to read mirror file
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com precise InRelease
Get:1 http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates InRelease [55.7 kB]
Get:2 http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security InRelease [55.7 kB]
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates InRelease
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security InRelease
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise Release.gpg
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates/main Sources/DiffIndex
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates/restricted Sources/DiffIndex
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates/universe Sources/DiffIndex
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates/main i386 Packages/DiffIndex
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates/restricted i386 Packages/DiffIndex
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates/universe i386 Packages/DiffIndex
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates/main TranslationIndex
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates/restricted TranslationIndex
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates/universe TranslationIndex 
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security/main Sources/DiffIndex   
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security/restricted Sources/DiffIndex
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security/universe Sources/DiffIndex
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security/main i386 Packages/DiffIndex
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security/restricted i386 Packages/DiffIndex
Ign http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security/universe i386 Packages/DiffIndex
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security/main TranslationIndex
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security/restricted TranslationIndex
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security/universe TranslationIndex
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise Release
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates/main Sources
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates/restricted Sources
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates/universe Sources
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates/main i386 Packages
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates/restricted i386 Packages
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates/universe i386 Packages
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates/main Translation-en
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates/restricted Translation-en 
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-updates/universe Translation-en   
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security/main Sources
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security/restricted Sources
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security/universe Sources
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security/main i386 Packages
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security/restricted i386 Packages 
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security/universe i386 Packages   
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security/main Translation-en
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security/restricted Translation-en
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise-security/universe Translation-en  
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise/main Sources
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise/restricted Sources
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise/universe Sources
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise/main i386 Packages
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise/restricted i386 Packages
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise/universe i386 Packages
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise/main TranslationIndex
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise/restricted TranslationIndex
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise/universe TranslationIndex
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise/main Translation-en
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise/restricted Translation-en
Hit http://archive.ubuntu.com precise/universe Translation-en
Fetched 111 kB in 0s (0 B/s)

Checking package manager
Reading package lists... Done
Building dependency tree
Reading state information... Done
Building data structures... Done

Calculating the changes

Calculating the changes

Error authenticating some packages

It was not possible to authenticate some packages. This may be a
transient network problem. You may want to try again later. See below   
for a list of unauthenticated packages.

accountsservice
apache2
<snip, many packages>
vim-runtime
vim-tiny
wget
xkb-data

Restoring original system state

Aborting
Reading package lists... Done
Building dependency tree
Reading state information... Done
Building data structures... Done
=== Command detached from window (Thu Jan 18 23:53:49 2018) ===
=== Command terminated with exit status 1 (Thu Jan 18 23:53:49 2018) ===

Answer 1

Note that Ubuntu 10.04 is waay past its end of support, and it has been more than 6 months since Ubuntu 12.04's end of life. My guess is that they've already shut down most if not all mirrors.

Since there have been pretty major changes in these 7 years(configuration files may have even changed!), if you want to keep programs and configurations, what I would do is:

1. Backup home directory and all other directories that may contain programs and configurations (for example, /etc if you tinker with configurations manually, ...)
2. Make a clean install of Ubuntu 16.04
3. Boot from live CD/USB, mount HDD and overwrite home with backup.
4. Test if it works.
5. If it works, Repeat 3-5. Otherwise go to 6
6. Debug. Maybe reinstall and copy less files to troubleshoot what is causing trouble.
7. If you works, go back to 3. Otherwise, go back to 6.

I'm sorry, but this is going to be a very painful and slow process if you intend to keep programs and configurations.

The easy way is (how I'd do it):

1. Backup your documents, photos, etc.
2. Make a list of the programs you have.
3. Clean install Ubuntu 16.04.
4. Reinstall programs and manually recover your configurations

Answer 2

A workaround I found is that you can modify your /etc/hosts file so that archive.ubuntu.com redirects to the same IP as old-releases.ubuntu.com which is enough to make do-release-upgrade happy enough.