COVID-19 denialism

Relating to the 2019-20 COVID-19 outbreak, there are many common arguments of denialism that seek to downplay the harm of COVID-19 or challenge governments' responses.

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Denialism
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Common arguments and refutations

Survival rate

Coronavirus has a 99% survival rate (or a very, very small mortality rate).

  • Ex-President Donald Trump claimed in a speech on July 4, 2020 that 99 percent of COVID-19 cases are "totally harmless."[1] Then on September 22, after the U.S. had 200,000 deaths from COVID-19, Trump said that COVID-19 affects "[e]lderly people with heart problems and other problems...But it affects virtually nobody."[2]
  • Former U.S. Representative Allen West shared on his Facebook page an image macro that said that coronavirus had a "99% survival rate."[3]

Refutation:

"Totally harmless" is meaningless in terms of science, but even disregarding that, Trump's estimate is extremely inaccurate. If this were referring to asymptomatic cases, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that 35 percent of cases are asymptomatic, but that statistic alone must be viewed in the context that people without coronavirus symptoms can still spread the virus to others who could face different outcomes. Furthermore, while it is technically accurate that the mortality rate is around 1 percent according to the World Health Organization (WHO), the WHO also estimates that 20% of people diagnosed with coronavirus will require hospitalization or a ventilator.[4]

Applying these statistics to the U.S. population (estimated at 328 million), in a theoretical U.S. where everyone were to be infected, a 1% mortality rate would lead to 3.28 million deaths, and 20 percent hospitalization would require 65.6 million hospital beds (and millions, possibly billions in hospital bills).

In August 2020, ESPN revealed possible long-term organ damage that could result from coronavirus: myocarditis, or inflammation of the heart muscle. That condition was found in college football players in the U.S., putting at jeopardy the 2020 college football season.[5]

Also, Trump tested positive for coronavirus on October 1, 2020, needing to go to Walter Reed Medical Center as a result.[6][7]

Comorbidities

The death rate is over-counted due to coronavirus being a comorbidity.

  • Allen West wrote: "… COVID-19 is most dangerous for those with underlying medical conditions such as hypertension, heart disease, COPD, Type 2 diabetes, and obesity."[8]
  • In April 2020, Fox News host Tucker Carlson attributed a sudden drop in pneumonia deaths to the CDC classifying such deaths as being from coronavirus.[9]

Refutation:

Carlson's interpretation is premature, because mortality data can take anywhere from two to eight weeks to be finalized. Also, the lack of testing makes a stronger case that coronavirus deaths are being under-counted.[9]

Coronavirus vs. cold/flu

Coronavirus is no worse than the common cold or flu. (Alternative forms: The flu kills more people.)

  • In early May 2020, when the U.S. coronavirus death toll was around 60,000, West compared that number of deaths to the 61,000 deaths in the 2017-18 influenza season.[8]

Refutation:

  • The flu season comparison is a false analogy, because the flu season lasts around six months. West's comparison happened when the coronavirus pandemic had not even eclipsed two months.[8]
  • Besides the flawed comparison of mortality rates, coronavirus has factors of harm unlike the flu: a lack of a vaccine (until 2021) or herd immunity and much higher contagion and hospitalization rates.[10][11][12]

Coronavirus vs. swine flu, etc.

The swine flu and past epidemics have been more deadly than COVID-19.

Refutation:

When looking beyond the raw numbers, this a false analogy. Estimates for H1N1 (swine flu) worldwide deaths during the 19-month pandemic that lasted from 2009 to 2010 range from around 150,000 to 575,000.[13] But that was in over one and a half years. Meanwhile, nearly 130,000 people in the U.S. alone have died from COVID-19 in just under four months as of July 6, 2020.[14]

The more testing, the more cases!

The reason more cases are being reported is because there is more testing being done.

"Cases are up because we have the best testing in the world and we have the most testing," said then-President Donald Trump in an interview with Fox News on July 19, 2020.[15]

"…when you do more testing, you find more cases. And then they report our cases are through the roof." (Also Trump on CBN News in late June)[16]


Refutation: According to an analysis by Stat News, more testing revealing more cases was the situation in only seven U.S. states out of 33 that had increased cases between mid-May and mid-July 2020. In the other 26 states, the increase in cases was truly due to a greater spread of the virus.[15] ProPublica made similar findings in late June.[16]

We need to achieve herd immunity!

The only way we will get a handle of this virus, is if we go about our lives and let the virus work its way through society.

"We are aggressively sheltering those at highest risk, especially the elderly, while allowing lower-risk Americans to safely return to work and to school, and we want to see so many of those great states be open. We want them to be open. They have to be open. They have to get back to work." Trump RNC 2020 Convention[17]

"When younger, healthier people get the disease, they don’t have a problem with the disease. I'm not sure why that’s so difficult for everyone to acknowledge. These people getting the infection is not really a problem, and in fact, as we said months ago, when you isolate everyone, including all the healthy people, you're prolonging the problem because you're preventing population immunity. Low-risk groups getting the infection is not a problem." Scott AtlasFile:Wikipedia's W.svg (the anti-Dr. Fauci) on Fox News in July

This relies on two bits of denialism, first that the spread can be controlled, and second that it isn't as damaging to human body as it really is. The idea being that if the disease spreads, you can protect the most vulnerable people, allowing it to infect the population who will eventually develop antibodies, eventually dying out because it can no longer infect people. This rarely happens naturally, recent history has seen NGO's and governments pursue massive vaccination efforts, with the goal of reaching community immunity, which is different for every disease. Because so little is still known about COVID, there are estimates about the percentage of the population that would need immunity, somewhere between 40-70% (more infectious variants of COVID that started appearing in 2021 would make that a higher percentage since herd immunity levels are proportional to infectivity).

Refutation:

  • The virus is spreading uncontrollably right now: To achieve this you would need to guarantee that the most vulnerable populations would be protected, evidence this can be done in the US is scant, especially when one considers that around 50% of the deaths are connected to nursing homes, presumably the most vulnerable population.
  • The amount of death necessary is intolerable: The United States has done an exceptionally good job at treating the virus, but getting rid of the current limited restrictions, may risk local health systems getting overwhelmed. And, at current mortality rates, and a 65% target immunity, this would sacrifice around 2 million Americans.
  • The long term effects of the disease are still unknown: There are reports of major intestinal and cognitive ailments that have appeared after an infection (so-called "long COVID"). Considering that the American healthcare infrastructure depends on healthy people paying for sick people, millions of new sick people would endanger the system.
  • It already didn't work:[18] Many conservatives talk about the "Swedish Model" in dealing with Covid-19. Health officials in Sweden opted for a hands off approach, with restrictions only for the most vulnerable. This resulted in Sweden's infection and fatality rates being significantly higher than their neighbors in Finland and Norway, while still suffering the economic collapse that everyone else is suffering. Health officials in Sweden have already stated that if they could, they would go back and change their approach.

COVID-19 is caused by 5G
See the main article on this topic: 5G

Masks don't work
See the main article on this topic: Face masks

Generally, this argument relies on a statement without context, and medical quackery. It's true that at the beginning of the pandemic, the signals from the federal government did not recommend facial coverings.[19] This statement was based on the information they had received from Chinese officials that the virus was not airborne. This turned out to be false, and there is some evidence that the Trump Administration knew it to be false. However, Dr. Fauci in later comments specified that the threat at the time was a lack of personal protective equipment for medical workers, and that a demand from the general population would only increase scarcity, threatening the stability of medical infrastructure across the country. The other arguments against masks rely on a bunch of arguments, such as that they reduce O2 levels,[20] that they don't stop the virus because the fabric isn't tight enough,[21] etc. All of it is bollocks, study[22] after[23] study[24] shows that facial coverings are an integral part of defeating COVID-19.

List of COVID-19 deniers
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References
  1. Reston, Maeve. "Trump uses July 4th address to put forward a dangerously misleading claim." CNN: July 5, 2020. Accessed July 5, 2020.
  2. O'Kane, Caitlin. "Trump said coronavirus 'affects virtually nobody,' as U.S. surpasses 200,000 deaths." CBS News: September 22, 2020. Accessed October 4, 2020.
  3. West, Allen. "My quote is taken from the article here..." Facebook post from April 28, 2020. Accessed July 5, 2020.
  4. Veronica Stracqualursi and Sarah Westwood, "FDA commissioner refuses to defend Trump claim that 99% of Covid-19 cases are 'harmless'." CNN: July 5, 2020. Accessed July 5, 2020.
  5. Lavigne, Paula, and Schlabach, Mark. "Heart condition linked with COVID-19 fuels Power 5 concern about season's viability." ESPN. August 10, 2020. Accessed August 14, 2020.
  6. Colvin, Jill, and Miller, Zeke. "Trump says he and first lady tested positive for coronavirus." Associated Press: October 1, 2020. Accessed October 4, 2020
  7. Miller, Zeke; Colvin, Jill; and Lemire, Jonathan. "Trump, stricken by COVID-19, flown to military hospital." Associated Press: October 2, 2020. Accessed October 4, 2020.
  8. Krepel, Terry. "CNS' West Embraces Dubious Stats And Misinformation." ConWebBlog: May 25, 2020. Accessed July 5, 2020.
  9. Blake, Aaron. "Birx and Fauci reject Fox News-promoted theory that coronavirus deaths are inflated." The Washington Post: April 8, 2020. Accessed July 5, 2020.
  10. Radcliffe, Shawn. "Here’s Why COVID-19 Is Much Worse Than the Flu." Healthline: May 14, 2020. Accessed July 5, 2020.
  11. Maragakis, Lisa Lockerd. "Coronavirus Disease 2019 vs. the Flu." Johns Hopkins Medicine. Accessed July 5, 2020.
  12. Rettner, Rachael. "How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu?" LiveScience: May 14, 2020. Accessed July 5, 2020.
  13. Heneghan, Carl, and Jefferson, Tom. "COVID-19 deaths compared with “Swine Flu”." Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine: April 9, 2020. Accessed July 6, 2020.
  14. Shumaker, Lisa, and Fagenson, Zachary. "Miami rolls back restaurant dining as U.S. coronavirus deaths top 130,000." Reuters: July 6, 2020. Accessed July 6, 2020.
  15. Begley, Sharon (July 20, 2020). "Trump said more Covid-19 testing ‘creates more cases.’ We did the math." Stat News. Accessed August 15, 2020.
  16. Ornstein, Charles, and Ngu, Ash (June 25, 2020). "No, President Trump, Testing Is Not Causing Case Counts to Rise. The Virus Is Just Spreading Faster." ProPublica. Accessed August 15, 2020.
  17. https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/08/27/republican-national-convention-live-updates/?itid=ap_philiprucker&itid=lk_inline_manual_25
  18. The false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19 (21 Oct 2020) Nature
  19. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-fauci-outdated-video-masks/fact-checkoutdated-video-of-fauci-saying-theres-no-reason-to-be-walking-around-with-a-mask-idUSKBN26T2TR
  20. https://www.samhealth.org/about-samaritan/news-search/2020/11/10/does-wearing-a-mask-limit-oxygen-supply
  21. https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent
  22. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/36/eabd3083
  23. https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818
  24. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7191274/
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